DFS Gut Plays week 12 2017

By JJ Buck
JJ Buck If you’re reading this, you are amid a whirlwind of fantasy opinion and statistic overload. With this article we are looking at matchups that standout after a quick look over of the schedule and prices; going with your gut. Sometimes the obvious play is the best and sometimes it burns us. Here we’ll look at Draft Kings (DK) and Yahoo Sports (YS). As always, be sure to know the scoring settings; DK is PPR scoring opposed to .5 PPR for Yahoo.


Matt Ryan – Atlanta – (DK $6,400 – YS $35)
With the bye weeks behind us we have a full Sunday slate even with three Thanksgiving Day games. Ryan gets to face the second worst pass defense in the NFL for the first time this season. We could see Ryan’s first three touchdown game of the season as Julio Jones is in a prime stacking spot with last year’s NFL MVP. There are nine quarterbacks priced higher than Ryan on DK and that should lower his ownership percentage this weekend. (ATL -9.5, O/U 48.5)

Tyrod Taylor – Buffalo – (DK $5,800 – YS $28)
Taylor is the NFL man of the year for watching starter Nathan Peterman throw five first half interceptions and then throwing for an rushing for a touchdown in the second half of their Los Angeles disaster. Taylor has three rushing TD’s in his last four games and faces a Kansas City defense which has given up 383 yards per-game this season. He’s motivated and affordable. (KC -10, O/U 46.5)

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt –Kansas City – (DK $8,000 – YS $35)
Andy Reid’s diverse play calling was great when their focus was establishing the run. Hunt hasn’t scored in seven games and has only averaged 69 total yards over their last three games. The offense has to run through Hunt and this weekend is a good time to get back to the basics against a bruised Buffalo squad at Arrowhead Stadium. (KC -10, O/U 46.5)

Dion Lewis – New England – (DK $4,800 – YS $19)
Finding good value at RB is a challenge this week. Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,600 – YS $17) has been my go to under 5K guy this season, but this weekend I’m looking at option 1A in the Patriots backfield. The Rex Burkhead love lasted two weeks, but the one thing that has been constant is the workload of Lewis. He has rushed 10 or more times the last five games and faces a nice Sunday at home against the Dolphins. (NE -16.5, O/U 47.5)

Devontae Booker – Denver – (DK $3,700 – YS $14)
Punt city! It’s finally time for Paxton Lynch to get his second shot. C.J. Anderson will get his opportunities, but I like Booker on DK as he is coming off a 5-54 receiving game and I expect new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to lean on his RB’s and short passing game against a beatable Raiders defense. (OAK -5, O/U 43.5)

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery – Philadelphia – (DK $6,300 – YS $21)
The Eagles are in a zone with Carson Wentz on offense that makes anyone who lines up a potential game breaker. Jeffery has settled in as a reliable target for Wentz, averaging eight targets per-game, and gets a visit from his old running mates the Chicago Bears. I would feel better about taking a shot on Nelson Agholor ($5,300 - $17) if he was in the sub 5K club. (PHI -13.5, O/U 44)

Cooper Kupp – L.A. Rams - (DK $5,000 – YS $16)
With Robert Woods out Kupp should soak up targets underneath and he already has 16 red zone targets on the season. What a season it has been when we are going to the Rams for quality fantasy value. Sean McVay, job well done. (LAR -2.5, O/U 53.5)

Paul Richardson – Seattle – (DK $4,700 – YS $16)
The third-option in the Seahawks passing game is worth a look as running the football is just not what they can do right now. Richardson’s game log outside of their shootout against Houston won’t wow you, but the opportunity is there. The hope is 5-50-1, meaning he’ll steal one of Jimmy Graham’s looks which we’ll get to later. (SEA -6.5, O/U 44)

Marqise Lee – Jacksonville – (DK $4,500 – YS $20)
After watching Tom Savage find the end zone twice against Arizona, Blake Bortles can find Lee at least once this weekend. He’s become a solid number one option for Bortles with 5-4-8-6-5 reception totals and two touchdowns over their last five games. (JAC -4.5, O/U 38)

DK Reception Fillers – Davante Adams ($5,800)
YS Touchdown Makers – Julio Jones ($34), Devin Funchess ($20)

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham – Seattle – (DK $5,800 – YS $21)
Three touchdowns hauled in over the last two weeks with a league leading 13 targets inside the 10-yard line this season; give me all the Jimmy-G this Sunday. Click and forget at that salary. (SEA -6.5, O/U 44)

Delanie Walker – Tennessee – (DK $5,000 – YS $18)
Even with dropping a touchdown pass, Walker produced a 6-92 line in what was one of Marcus Mariota’s worst games as a pro. Over the last four games Walker has averaged six catches for 73 yards. It will be interesting to see how the TE ownership is spread out between the Graham/Walker tier the Kelce/Gronk/Ertz trio. (TEN -3, O/U 45.5)

Yahoo Cup Review

149.08 points scored Week 11; 3,601st place out of 374,172 entries.
QB – Kirk Cousins – (25.98) – We cashed in on low ownership and a big day.
RB – Chris Thompson – (9.80) – Get well soon CT.
RB – Melvin Gordon– (14.00) – Glad he got in a little action in that blowout.
WR – Jamison Crowder – (11.10) – Caught 7-of-6 targets, late Saints push helped.
WR –Keenan Allen – (34.20) – Once Rivers was cleared I was all-in with Allen for $20.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders – (2.50) – Nothing to see here…
TE –Jimmy Graham – (17.30) – Almost too easy.
Flex –Kareem Hunt – (9.20) – Back to the well we go this week.
DEF – Chargers – (25.00) – Seriously, Nathan Peterman.

Odds from VegasInsider.com