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Crystal Ball week 5 2016

By Evan Tarracciano

Hello and welcome to the second installment of the Roto Wizard’s Crystal Ball! Each week I review several hot topic issues which I’ve received inquiries about on Twitter, and provide my thoughts. Week Four of the NFL season wasn’t quite as catastrophic from an injury perspective, but there is plenty to cover in terms of news.

Before we begin, I’d highly encourage you to join me each Tuesday evening at 8 PM EST over on the Football Diehards Facebook page for my Q&A video chats, as this article serves as a supplementary piece to what I previously covered. If you aren’t already following our page, check it out here:

https://www.facebook.com/FootballDieHards/

Q: What the heck is going on with the Baltimore Ravens backfield? Which player has the most value for the rest of the season?
A: Regardless of how John Harbaugh attempts to muddy the waters, there are essentially two backs of note in this offense which should be owned – Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon.

For the next week or two, owners should expect West to receive the bulk of the workload from a rushing perspective. A former third-round selection of the Cleveland Browns, West has looked excellent to start the beginning of 2016, averaging well over four yards per carry in fifty attempts over the past four games. I’m confident West’s YPC will drop closer to the 3.8 range (which is his career average) as he receives more attempts moving forward. From a talent perspective West is above-average but certainly not elite. He’s more of a volume based back who has the ability to catch a pass or two per game, and move piles when necessary.

Kenneth Dixon on the other hand does possess several skills which I would categorize as elite, namely his ability to catch passes and run inside or outside the tackles. Dixon is much faster than West, but is only ten pounds lighter. Since owners haven’t seen Dixon on the field yet, they should look back to his college tape from Louisiana Tech to gauge his upside. He averaged nearly six yards per attempt in college and complied 87 all-purpose TD’s, good for second all-time in FBS history. The team has expressed a supreme amount of confidence in him, and has publicly commented about his plus-pass protection.

Of the two backs, expect West to be the better play for the next week or two, but Dixon to blow past him in short order. If Dixon isn’t already owned in your league, make sure to add him immediately.

Q: I’m hearing news that Rob Gronkowski’s hamstring still isn’t 100%. He’s killed me over the past two weeks, do I start him in Week 5 if he’s active?
A: I feel for you since I own multiple shares of Gronk, but if he is active you need to get him into your lineups with the return of Tom Brady to New England. Sure, his last two outings have been absolute duds, but things will get better moving forward. While the news isn’t stellar that he hasn’t fully healed yet, the Patriots appear to be content letting it heal slowly but surely. Given the risk of reinjury if Gronk pushes it too hard, better to be safe than sorry with this one.

Q: What gives with Odell Beckham Jr.? Is he a buy-low or sell-low?
A: Much has been reported about OBJ’s scuffles with cornerbacks this season, and the personal foul penalties which he’s accrued in the process. This past week I can’t blame him for being upset since he was clearly hit out of bounds twice while the officials didn’t call anything. That being said, he does need to work on his temper, which clearly gets the best of him in the heat of the moment. Beckham Jr. was the second pick in most drafts behind Antonio Brown, and has disappointed owners greatly so far, catching just 22 passes for 303 yards and zero touchdowns. From a statistical standpoint, better days are ahead for him moving forward. The targets are there for him, but he just hasn’t capitalized thusfar. While he might not approach the 96-1450-13 line from last year, I’m still confident in a minimum of 85-1250-10. At the conclusion of the loss to the Minnesota Vikings, GM Jerry Reese took him aside for an extended period of time to talk to him about things. Expect to see him with a renewed focus in Week 5.

Q: You were asked on Sirius XM to name a celebrity who you’d like to mentor in Fantasy Football. Out of all the people in the world you picked and old fat guy in George R.R. Martin? Seriously?
A: If I was single I think that this answer would have changed to an actress that I have a harmless crush on, like Jennifer Lawrence or Emma Watson. That being said, I’d rather not incur the wrath of an angry wife. Plus, who wouldn’t want to know the ending to “A Game of Thrones”??

Q: Is Jeremy Langford droppable with the success of Jordan Howard?
A: Yes, in 12 team or smaller formats I’d be comfortable dropping Langford for a better option. He’s purely a handcuff upon his return, barring a Howard injury.

Q: I have Blake Bortles/Alex Smith/Drew Brees/Russel Wilson on bye this week, who would be a good pickup as a bye-week quarterback?
A: Hard to say without knowing who is on the waiver wire in your league, but there are plenty of options which I’d consider. If Trevor Siemian is ruled out, I think that Paxton Lynch is capable of putting up a 250/2 line on the Atlanta Falcons, and he’s universally unowned. While he isn’t the sexiest name in the world, Brian Hoyer has posted back-to-back weeks of over 300 yards passing and multiple touchdowns. I expect the trend to continue against the woeful Indianapolis Colts.

Q: Should I panic about Latavius Murray? I drafted him as a RB2 in my league and he’s done nothing for me the past two weeks?
A: I’ve been recommending that owners attempt to deal Murray for the past two weeks, but I feel that the window has passed to get any semblance of a return on investment for him. The Oakland Raiders backfield is a full-fledged committee situation, between Murray/DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard. Ultimately I think that Washington is the back to own in PPR formats, and has the most talent of the bunch. He flashed every week in the preseason, and I’ve often used Maurice Jones-Drew as a comparison for his skillset.

Waiver-Wire choices

Quarterback: I covered both of the bye-week players that I’ve been recommending on social media above, in Paxton Lynch or Brian Hoyer.

Running Back:

Bilal Powell (New York Jets) – Powell was dropped in many leagues after his disappointing roles in both of the first two games of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills. The good news for Powell owners is that Matt Forte’s workload has decreased with each passing week, and he also suffered a knee and rib injury this past Sunday. Forte is questionable at best to play in Week 5 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and if he does take the field, expect it to be in a limited capacity. Powell will continue to be one of the top handcuffs in PPR formats as the clear-cut option on a run-first team led by an aging back on the wrong side of 30. If Forte were to miss any time, Powell would be a solid RB2.
**Deeper Formats** Bobby Rainey (New York Giants) – With Shane Vereen out for the remainder of 2016, expect to see Rainey fill-in as the third down and pass catching specialist option for the team until Paul Perkins can learn to block. While he isn’t the most gifted player in the world, Rainey does fill a niche role for the Giants, and will see enough action to warrant a pickup in 14 or 16 team PPR leagues.

Wide Receiver:

Robert Woods (Buffalo Bills) – I discussed Woods in length during my video chat, and I’ll sum it up here. With Sammy Watkins out until at least Week 11, Woods is the de-factor number one outside receiving threat in the passing game for the Bills. Does this remain a run-first team? Yes, now more than ever. That said, he is an upside FLEX play in 12 team or larger leagues, and warrants a much higher ownership rate than 10 percent.
Eddie Royal (Chicago Bears) – I’ve long been an Eddie Royal hater, since the vast majority of his production over the past several seasons has come in two to three game bursts, and by the time that owners rush to the waiver wire to add him, it is already too late. With that caveat aside, Royal may be fantasy-relevant for a longer period of time this season with Kevin White expected to miss several weeks due to an ankle injury. Royal is a chain-mover akin to Cole Beasley, and is on a team that will constantly play from behind and be in catch-up mode. In deeper PPR formats, he’s worth a look.

Tight End:

Will Tye (New York Giants) – Larry Donnell left Monday’s contest against the Minnesota Vikings with a concussion, and is expected to miss time while going through the required protocol. In his absence Tye will step in as the every-down option. Neither player’s production this season has been particularly remarkable, but if you combine them into one option, it would rank just outside of the top 15, in the Jason Witten/Coby Fleener territory. Tye isn’t fast by any means, but Eli Manning does like to look to him towards the red zone.