The Shadow Knows Week 15 2018

THE SHADOW KNOWS: Week 15

Usually, this article breaks down matchups between the very best players at the wide receiver and cornerback positions. Often, the information included here isn't exactly what can be called "good news."

But in addition to it being the fantasy playoffs, it's also the holidays—so I wanted to kick this week's column off with some good news.

That good news is this—if you're a fantasy owner of Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks or even Josh Reynolds of the Los Angeles Rams, Christmas came early this year.

In last week's loss to the Chicago Bears, Woods surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. As Clarence Dennis wrote for the team's website, quarterback Jared Goff has been duly impressed by the sixth-year veteran.

“The professionalism he comes to work every day with has been huge for not only that receiving room, not only the offense, but our whole team," Goff said. “He's a guy that knows all the positions and can play all the positions and when you have a guy like that, you can seamlessly move him around.”

Frankly, I halfway expect Goff to throw for 1,000 yards in Sunday night's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly's injury-ravaged secondary has sailed right past awful into truly putrid territory. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL in pass defense, and only one NFL team has allowed more PPR fantasy points to wideouts this year. In last week's loss in Dallas, the Eagles surrendered a jaw-dropping 10/217/3 stat line to Amari Cooper of the Cowboys.

It's start 'em if you've got 'em time with the LA wideouts—especially with the Rams seething after the loss in Chicago.

Here's a look around the NFL for those fantasy owners who didn't hit the matchup jackpot in Week 15.

As usual, the higher the number on the Panic Meter, the more you should, you know…it's really rather self-explanatory.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (Patrick Peterson vs. Julio Jones)

Peterson and Jones locked horns back in college, and as Kevin Zimmerman wrote for Arizona Sports the former LSU star is looking forward to again facing the Alabama standout. “He had his fair share of wins, I believe I had my fair share of wins," Peterson said. "Like I put on my notes on Tuesday, here we go, best versus the best. These are the matchups I live and (die) for. I’m sure he’s the same way. This is why you play the game of football.”

Jones is both dinged-up and sick, but reports indicate that Dan Quinn expects the star receiver to be out there as the Cardinals and Falcons play out the string on a disappointing season. The Falcons may be a mess, but Jones has gotten his—including a robust 8/106/2 stat line in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. You're not sitting Julio Jones in the fantasy playoffs, but a nicked-up Jones with the sniffles going up against one of football best cover men ain't ideal.

Panic Level: 4 (This feels like a WR2-level week)

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (Kenny Golladay vs. Tre'Davious White)

Golladay was a complete non-factor last week against the Cardinals, and Andrew Gould of Fantasy Pros isn't exactly feeling the love in Week 15 either. "Foiled to five yards by Patrick Peterson's Cardinals," he said. "Golladay draws another tough matchup against Tre'Davious White, who has steered Buffalo's NFL-best passing defense. Detroit has no other receivers worth any attention, so look for the Bills to focus entirely on Golladay in another low-scoring bout. He's at best a dicey WR2/3 in hopes of drawing a bunch of targets in spite of tight coverage."

Frankly, coverage by White—while far from ideal—is only half the problem with Golladay. Last week the Lions managed less than 225 yards of total offense, and Matthew Stafford attempted just 23 passes—his fourth-lowest single-game total ever. The sad state of the Lions offense is every bit as concerning as who will be covering Golladay on Sunday.

Panic Level: 8 (The Detroit offense is stinky poo at the moment)

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (Byron Jones vs. TY Hilton)

As Kevin Bowen of 1070 the Fan in Indianapolis reported, Hilton's status for Sunday's big showdown with the Cowboys is looking murky. "Hilton (ankle) was again on the sideline for Thursday’s session," he said. "Hilton got banged up on his 60-yard reception against the Texans and played 54-of-67 snaps. Hilton has battled hamstring, shoulder and ankle injuries this season. Last week, Hilton missed both Wednesday and Thursday practices, so his absence isn’t the most alarming thing. But it’s a new injury, so that bears monitoring going into Friday’s final practice of the week."

Jones has quietly been one of the better corners in the NFL this year and a key to Dallas' defensive success. But he rarely strays from his spot on the left side of the field, so scheming the red-hot Hilton off of him shouldn't be a big problem. Actually, red-hot's an understatement—over his last four games, Hilton has caught 33 passes for 556 yards and two scores. If he's able to give it a go Sunday, there's little reason to think Hilton won't get his.

Panic Level: 5 (All about the ankle. So long as he plays, he's a no-brainer start)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (Mike Evans vs. Jimmy Smith)

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo Sports is off the Evans train in this must-win week. "I can’t remember the last time I had Evans outside my Top 20 at the wide receiver position," he wrote, "but Baltimore’s defense is a steamroller, crushing most passing production in its path. Baltimore’s offense could also mess things up, aiming to run liberally and shorten the game. If you have reasonable WR depth, you could consider sitting Evans here. At minimum, fade him in DFS and bring those expectations way down. And other Tampa Bay options that we generally trust this year (Winston, Godwin, Humphries) become non-starters for fantasy purposes."

It's not inconceivable that Evans could still have a good game—Tyreek Hill just went 8/139/0 against Smith and the Ravens. But Jameis Winston isn't Patrick Mahomes, and even after that effort the Ravens remain 27th in the NFL in PPR fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Sitting Evans outright probably isn't an option, but a WR1 effort from Evans isn't especially likely.

Panic Level: 6 (The Ravens are legit defensively. Temper expectations)

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Stephon Gilmore vs. Antonio Brown)

Brown's having something of a "down" season (at least by his standards), but per Bryan DeArdo of 247 Sports Ben Roethlisberger had an explanation for that. AB’s one of the best in the business right now," Roethlisberger said. "Teams are doubling him. They got a corner on him and a safety over top. They’ve been doing it for years now. Now when you have JuJu [Smith-Schuster] on the other side being signaled…we don’t have to force it to AB. JuJu can make plays. I love AB to death, but if they’re gonna keep doubling AB, we’re going to go to other guys, and eventually, they’re going to have to stop [putting so much attention] on AB."

Roethlisberger has a point—Brown's dip in production over the past few weeks coincides with a spike from Smith-Schuster, and both players rank inside the top-10 PPR wideouts. Essentially, at this point both receivers are weekly must-starts, and while Gilmore's having a fine season (he's PFF's No. 2 cornerback after 13 weeks) the only way he's going to impact Brown is if he has safety help from Devin McCourty.

Panic Level: 2 (The Pats have actually done OK against Brown in recent meetings)

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (Marshon Lattimore vs. DJ Moore)

Per Joseph Person of The Athletic, ESPN's Booger McFarland sees the logic behind DJ Moore's ascension to the role of No. 1 receiver for the Panthers. “If you don’t get the production from (Devin Funchess), to me it’s a seamless transition,” McFarland said. “You drafted Moore in the first round and he’s producing. He’s doing some good things. And I think giving him more opportunities is what you do, especially when you’ve got to make plays. They’re on this losing streak right now. They’re searching for play-making. And I think Moore gives them a little bit more of that, or at least that’s what they feel.”

The problem with Moore's ascension—at least this week—is that it brings with it added attention from opposing defenses. No team in the NFL has allowed more PPR fantasy points to wide receivers this year than the Saints, but there's a world of difference in New Orleans cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple. Unfortunately for Moore, he gets the good one on Monday night.