THE SHADOW KNOWS Week 4 2021

THE SHADOW KNOWS: Week 4

There's an old saying that familiarity breeds contempt. If that's the case, then Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey most assuredly do not exchange Christmas cards.

Dating back to Hopkins' time with the Houston Texans and Ramsey's stint with the Jacksonville Jaguars, these two superstars have been locking horns for most of Ramsey's six seasons in the league. Now a rivalry that started in the AFC South will continue in the NFC West when the Cardinals travel to La-La Land to face the Rams in a marquee matchup of 3-0 teams.

Hopkins' first year in Arizona in 2020 was outstanding and then some-115 catches, 1,407 yards, six scores and a fourth-place finish among wide receivers in PPR fantasy points. This season hasn't started off at the same feverish pace-three weeks in, Hopkins' 13/158/3 line sits outside the top 20 at the position.

Given his talent level and explosiveness, that could turn around in the blink of an eye. But as ESPN's Mike Clay wrote, that blink isn't likely to come against Ramsey and the Rams Sunday.

"In the Week 13 meeting with Arizona (in 2020), (Ramsey) played almost exclusively at right corner," Clay said. "That allowed him to cover Hopkins on 34 of Hopkins' 40 routes (31 of 34 perimeter, 3 of 6 slot). In Week 17, he did the same, covering Hopkins on 21 of 28 routes (19 of 22 perimeter, 2 of 6 slot). Across both games, Hopkins posted a 12-87-1 receiving line on 23 targets, though he was held to a 6-52-0 line on 16 targets when up against Ramsey. Ramsey has yet to shadow this season, but his 2020 deployment suggests he'll shadow Hopkins this weekend. Hopkins is too good to bench, but his underwhelming start to the season and this very tough matchup makes him a name to avoid in DFS."

Like Clay said, you can't bench "Nuk"-ever. But fantasy managers need to go into Week 4 with the knowledge that a 10 PPR-point game from Hopkins is more likely than a 30-point outburst.
 

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (Brandin Cooks vs. Tre'Davious White)

Offensive successes have been few and far between for the Houston Texans since starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor went down, but at the end of the first half last week against the Panthers the team managed to get some momentum going. Per Mark Lane of Texans Wire, veteran wideout Brandin Cooks thinks an uptick in tempo could help turn things around.

"At the end of the day, we do well playing fast and when we had that success at the end of that half, obviously the biggest thing is just tempo in general," said Cooks. "From a receiver standpoint, got to get out of the huddle faster so we can dissect what's going on at the line. We got to get better at that even when we're not, I guess, in two-minute situations and that's more so us players having the tempo, getting out the huddle and getting ready to go."

Despite the struggles of the Davis Mills-led Texans offense, Cooks has maintained WR1-level production-largely because he ranks inside the top-five in the league in targets. That target volume will likely continue Sunday against the Bills and Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White, but only one team in the NFL has allowed fewer fantasy points in 2021 to wideouts than the Bills. Cooks is less a WR1 than a WR3 this week.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (Michael Pittman vs. Xavien Howard)

Not much has gone right for the Colts or fantasy managers with shares of Indy players in 2021. But wide receiver Michael Pittman has been an exception-over the past two weeks the former USC standout has been targeted 24 times and ranks inside the top 20 wideouts in fantasy. As the team's website reported, Pittman has also earned the trust of quarterback Carson Wentz.

"He's a competitor," Wentz said. "I love getting the ball in his hands. Seeing him run after the catch and compete in some of those contested catch situations, he's a reliable guy. He's going to be where he needs to be on time, create separation and win those contested catches more often than he won't. Definitely a reliable target that I think is going to keep getting better and better and him and I are going to continue to build our chemistry more and more as we go."

There are two things working against Pittman in Week 4. The first is Wentz, who looks more like last year's turnover machine than the MVP candidate in 2017 in his first season with the Colts. The second is Howard, who is allowing just 52.6 percent of the passes thrown his way to be completed. Pittman is going to need a dozen targets Sunday to salvage WR3 numbers.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson)

Beckham made his 2021 debut last week against the Chicago Bears, hauling in five of nine targets for 77 yards in a blowout win. As Mary Kay Cabot reported for Cleveland.com, Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt thinks that's only the beginning as Beckham gets his sea legs back and the chemistry between him and quarterback Baker Mayfield improves.

"The first third-and-10 or third-and-12, whatever that long-yardage play was, that is a play that was timing and it was throwing as he was coming out of the break,' Van Pelt said. "That's something that they've done over and over again in the spring, through the summer and training camp. Definitely see the fruits of their labor."

It's important for fantasy managers not to get too wrapped up in one decent stat line from any player. But Beckham looked healthy and was one missed Mayfield throw from a long score on top of that decent day. The new-look secondary in Minnesota has been absolutely roasted by opposing receivers this season, allowing the fourth-most PPR points to the position. If there was ever a spot for Beckham to turn back the clock a bit and blow up, this would appear to be it.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (Kenny Golladay vs. Marcus Lattimore)

The Giants are paying Golladay $18 million a season to be both New York's leading receiver and a big-play threat. To date the 27-year-old hasn't been either-while battling a(nother) hip injury Golladay has managed just 11 catches for 164 yards on the season. When asked by reporters while the deep ball hasn't been there, Golladay side-eyed the Giants' play-calling.

"I mean, I don't really have an answer to that,' Golladay said. "At the end of the day, I'm going to run what the guys want me to run. I just look at it as whenever my number is called, I just want to go out there and make the play. If it's short or long, I've just got to go out there and make the play. That's my mindset.'

Like just about everything New York football in 2021, Golladay has been a mess. He's not 100 percent healthy, the chemistry between him and Daniel Jones has been off and when the ball is delivered accurately Golladay has had the dropsies. He's also the only healthy wideout of note for the G-Men right now, so not only will he draw a big physical corner in Marshon Lattimore Sunday but the Saints star will more likely than not have safety help. Golladay is more WR4 than WR2 in Week 4-says the guy with Golladay shares all over the place.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (D.J. Moore vs, Trevon Diggs)

After losing a heartbreaker late in Tampa on opening night, the Dallas Cowboys have peeled off two impressive wins in a row, including a blowout win over the rival Eagles in Week 3. As Patrik Walker wrote at CBS Sports, on defense there hasn't been a more important player over that span than second-year cornerback Trevon Diggs.

"The reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Month and former second-round pick is off to an All-Pro caliber start to Year 2 with an interception in each of his first three games -- the first Cowboy to accomplish this feat since legendary defensive back Everson Walls in 1985," Walker said. "He's also proving he's more than simply a ballhawk, delivering key tackles and pass breakups in critical situations, both of the latter being put on display in the Cowboys' dismantling of the Eagles on Monday night."

Diggs has been excellent so far this season, but so has D.J. Moore-after a huge Week 3 the fourth-year veteran is third in the league in receptions, seventh in receiving yards and 10th in fantasy points among wide receivers. He's also one of just five pass-catchers in the league with a target share north of 30 percent. That last number is why you have to start Moore regardless of matchup, but maybe Diggs' coverage will motivate San Darnold to remember that Robby Anderson is, in fact, not dead.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (Marlon Humphrey vs. Courtland Sutton)

The Denver Broncos are a perfect 3-0 ahead of Sunday's meeting from the Ravens, but the road to that hot start hasn't been without bumps. With both Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler on injured reserve, the Denver wideout corps has taken a significant hit. Still, as Aric DiLalla of the Broncos website reported, so long as Teddy Bridgewater has Courtland Sutton at his disposal, he feels like the Broncos will be OK.

"He's a dog," Bridgewater said. "He's out there and his energy is contagious. I'm on the sideline and I might have missed him on a throw, and he comes up to me like, 'Nah, man. We got this. Trust me. You know I'm going make a play, they can't check me.' That confidence - and of course in practice you tone things down a little bit - but to see it on game day, it's like, 'Man, let's get this guy to Sunday because he's going to lay it all on the line for the team.' I have all the trust in the world in 'Court' and that entire room."

Sutton may be Denver's No. 1 receiver. And the most dangerous player at the position on the team. But Bridgewater is also the kind of quarterback who will take whatever opposing defenses give him, which has led to Tim Patrick having more PPR fantasy points three games in. The Ravens weren't a team who would shadow No. 1 wideouts when Marcus Peters was healthy, but he isn't-the $64 question in this contest will be which wideout Baltimore decides to take away.

Because based on the first three weeks of the season, it's Happy Meal time for the other.