Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 6 2018
If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
Game Over/Under: 57.5
Team Implied Points: 30.25
Matt Ryan $6,800 really disappointed last week, as many had high expectations for him, including myself. He threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, scoring just 15.4 DKFP in a really good spot. Once again, Ryan draws a great matchup against the Bucs who rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. This defense is allowing 358 passing yards per game (most in NFL) and 32.1 DKFP per game (most by any defense), not to mention they have allowed a league high 13 passing touchdowns even though they already had a bye week. In each of the last three home games against Tampa Bay, Ryan has eclipsed 300 passing yards and has combined for five passing touchdowns. As you can see from his numbers this season, he plays much better at home, having scored at least 31 DKFP in all home games this season. This is a smash spot for him this week and I expect him to bounce back nicely.
The Julio Jones $7,900 touchdown watch is in full effect and it would not be surprising to see it happen this weekend. His one-on-one matchup against Carlton Davis is a really good one, as Jones has a 48 percent advantage rating according to PFF and Davis grades out below average. Jones has a strong history against the Bucs, scoring 10 touchdowns in 12 career games, and of those 10 touchdowns, eight of them were in home games, so this is clearly a situation that he has found much success in. Jones leads the team in targets by a decent amount and remains top three in air yards in the league, therefore, positive regression is inevitable. I also think this price is too cheap considering the matchup and his upside, making him not only a strong stacking option, but a great all around play this weekend.
Mohamed Sanu $4,800 has turned it around after starting out the season a bit slow. He has scored at least 15 DKFP in each of the last three games and is second on the team with 31 targets which is good for 17 percent of the target share. The matchup at hand is a favorable one as the Bucs are giving up 51.5 DKFP per game (2nd most) to receivers, and have allowed 66 receptions for 742 yards and nine touchdowns (2nd most). He is expected to see coverage from M.J. Stewart who grades out below average on PFF and it is a matchup that Sanu has a 39 percent advantage rating in. The Bucs have struggled against slot receivers this season and Sanu has lined up out of the slot 75 percent of the time this season. This is a good potential game environment for him, making him an appealing option at this reasonable price tag.
Other Options: Calvin Ridley has a favorable matchup against Brent Grimes and could easily have a big game here. That said, his price has increased a tad much for my liking, making him a secondary option in this stack. Austin Hooper is coming off of a nice game and has a solid matchup as well this week. I like other tight ends in his price range a bit more, but he still makes for a fine option in an Atlanta stack this weekend.
My favorite option: Ryan/Jones
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Over/Under: 57.5
Team Implied Points: 27.25
This is one of those weeks where it is really tough to fade Jameis Winston $5,800. I understand he is a volatile quarterback and is very capable of having a blowup game, letting people down. That said, this is such a great matchup for him as the Falcons have been pretty bad against the pass this season. They rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and are yielding the third most DKFP per game to the position. In addition, they are giving up over 275 passing yards per game and have allowed 12 passing touchdowns (2nd most). Winston has had plenty of success against the Falcons, throwing for at least three touchdowns in each of their last three meetings, totaling 10 passing touchdowns during that stretch. The Bucs are coming off of their bye, giving him plenty of time to prep for this matchup, so I think that he will come out and have plenty of success here. His price is also very affordable, making him even more enticing.
Mike Evans $8,100 is off to a strong start this season, scoring a touchdown and exceeding 20 DKFP in all but one game this season. He now gets his quarterback Winston back, which can only mean good things for Evans. The Falcons have been generous to opposing wide outs, surrendering 45.2 DKFP per game (6th most) and 10 receiving touchdowns (tied for most). His one-on-one matchup against Desmond Trufant will certainly be challenging, but Evans does have a 36 percent advantage rating per PFF. Not to mention, Evans has had success in this spot in the past. He has a strong history against the Falcons, scoring six touchdowns in eight career games and averaging 86.5 receiving yards per game. This should be a very active and busy day for Evans, pairing him up with Winston seems like a strong way to start your roster construction.
Cameron Brate $3,700 should see plenty of run this week with O.J. Howard sidelined. Brate has now scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and looks to keep that streak going this week. Although the Falcons have defended the tight end position well, Brate finds himself in a good game environment and at a fair price. Not to mention, Winston likes to look his way and now that Howard is out, Brate should be on the field plenty, providing him with extra potential opportunities. He has two career touchdowns against the Falcons, in six career games.
Other Options: DeSean Jackson can also be considered in a Bucs stack, the one concern I have here is that he and Winston have not had a strong connection since they have played together, and their timing never appears to be on point. Adam Humphries is someone that Winston likes to throw the ball to, so he is also someone that can be considered because it is a good game environment. That said, he is a low-upside option that comes with risk. Chris Godwin is someone I have interest in for tournaments because the young receiver has tremendous upside and draws a nice matchup. He is cheap enough to take a chance on, but is also volatile because his usage is not that high. If you game stack this contest, then you may want to consider him as a high-upside, low-owned option in your stack.
My favorite option: Winston/Evans
Game Over/Under: 44.5
Team Implied Points: 22.75
Baker Mayfield $5,500 is really looking like a first round pick quarterback, throwing for at least 295 passing yards in each of his starts. Last week he threw for 342 yards and a touchdown against a stingy Baltimore defense. This week the matchup is better against the Chargers who rank 16th in DVOA against the pass. Los Angeles is also yielding over 20 DKFP per game and has allowed 11 passing touchdown which is tied for third most in the league. In the last three games, the Browns are attempting the 10th most passes per game and in each of his first two starts, Mayfield has tossed over 40 passes. The Browns are letting the play making quarterback sling it and I expect him to do just that this weekend. This young man could go overlooked this week and offers a ton of upside.
Jarvis Landry $6,600 does not have the greatest of matchups this week, but that will not keep me away from pairing him up with Mayfield. Landry is a target monster, averaging 11.4 targets per game and accounting for 30 percent of the Browns target share. In addition, his role in the red zone is significant, as he accounts for 53.8 percent of Cleveland’s red zone targets. Mayfield has looked Landry’s way 10 times in each of his first two starts, which is a good indication that he will go to him often. There is a nice floor here for Landry and also some upside, making him an appealing option for a pairing for Mayfield this weekend.
I liked David Njoku $3,800 coming into the season, but so far he has not been all that great. That said, since Mayfield took over the starting job, Njoku has scored double-digit fantasy points and has eclipsed 50 yards in each game, after combining for 10.3 DKFP and 33 yards in the first two weeks. Njoku has been peppered with 18 targets in the last two games and has come down with 11 grabs. The Chargers have been stout against tight ends, which is obviously a cause for concern, but he is talented enough to overcome a bad matchup. Not to mention, Mayfield will force the rock into his hands. This should be a low-owned stack that provides plenty of upside this weekend, making them interesting in tournaments.
Other Options – There really is nobody else I feel can be strongly considered here. While it would not be surprising to see any of the secondary options have solid performances, it is not a direction I will head in.
My Favorite Option: Mayfield/Njoku
The Bengals and Steelers game is one that can potentially produce plenty of points, which could result in fantasy goodness. I am a bit more bullish on the Bengals side, being that the Steelers are on the road and Big Ben tends to struggle away from Pittsburgh. This leads me to have interest in Andy Dalton to his pass catchers, and the one I would role with is Tyler Boyd who is having a strong season and draws a phenomenal matchup.
The Rams offense can always be considered as a stacking option, after all this well-oiled machine is averaging the second most passing yards per game this season. Jared Goff has a strong rapport with all of his receivers, so they are all in consideration. If I am ranking them, it will be in this order – Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks. You can also throw Todd Gurley in the mix as a possible stacking option.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal