TheHunterReport DFS Week 7 2016

By Dave Hunter

The DraftKings NFL $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st] contest is getting the best of me right now, with my fourth week in a row not finishing in the money. Week 6 provided some interesting results, although I was too hit-or-miss with my choices, netting almost the same exact finish as last week. For now, I’ll just keep entering the one lineup each week. Maybe I should’ve worked Lamar Miller into my lineup, eh?

I finished 137,403 out of 253,816 totaling 127.56 points:

T.J. Yeldon, Chris Hogan and Doug Baldwin bombed for me in Week 6. I knew the risk in going with Yeldon and Hogan, although the Baldwin-tank was quite unexpected. It’s easy to second guess yourself in hindsight when there is a million dollar prize at hand, so don’t feel bad if you were the same boat as I was this past week. The best thing about Daily Fantasy Sports when you’re getting your tail kicked?
There’s always tomorrow!

Let’s get to Week 7, where I’m going to try to limit the slight craziness I experienced last week. Maybe I’ll start with not picking two players from the same team at the same receiving position. Sheesh.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level
Matt Ryan, ATL vs. San Diego Chargers ($7,200) – With Ryan averaging 26.7 FPPG this season, it’s easy to tell you to load him into your lineups; however, there are other reasons I like Ryan this week, including the matchup facing the Chargers pass defense. I’m not saying Ryan will throw four TD passes, although I fully expect him to earn his $7.2 K price point.

Other choices: Tom Brady, NE @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,900)

Mid-Range
Derek Carr, OAK @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,300) – Derek Carr actually travels well. The Raiders have had three road games this season, with Carr producing very well in two of those games – Baltimore and New Orleans. Yeah, yeah, I know, New Orleans isn’t exactly a tough place to put up fantasy points these days. Still, Carr is at a solid price tag and while he’s making the coast-to-coast trip I’m not against using him in cash or tournament lineups.

Other choices: Matthew Stafford, DET vs. Washington Redskins ($6,400); Blake Bortles, JAC vs. Oakland Raiders ($6,200); Andy Dalton, CIN vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,000)

Value
Colin Kaepernick, SF vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,300) – Recommending Kaepernick as your QB this week may have some of you puzzled. I get it. With the way the 49ers are playing, it’s a pretty huge risk to slot Kaepernick in, but if you’re thinking “crazy-time” this week and want to cut salary at QB then give CK a whirl. Obviously, I like CK’s running ability and that they get the Buccaneers in San Francisco. Kaepernick is a tournament play only for me.

Other choices: None

Over-Value
Russell Wilson, SEA @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,700) – I was all over Wilson last week with my other lineups I didn’t submit into the DraftKings NFL $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st] contest but what about this week? Don’t get me wrong, Wilson isn’t a horrible play I just think you can spend a bit better at the position. For instance, I’d much rather lock in Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers or Blake Bortles at a lesser price.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level
DeMarco Murray, TEN vs. Indianapolis Colts ($7,200) – Murray is obvious to me considering his matchup facing the Colts rush defense. I’m okay going “obvious”, although more for cash lineups. Be aware that Murray will likely have a percentage-owned rate above 25%. If you’re okay with that, then maybe you can work him into some tournaments too.

Other choices: LeSean McCoy, BUF @ Miami Dolphins ($7,600)

Mid-Range
Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. San Diego Chargers ($5,900) – Is this the week Freeman finally goes nuts? Yeah, I forgot about the New Orleans game, which, of course, was in New Orleans. So, yeah, Freeman went nuts in that game. Don’t you love Freeman’s Week 7 matchup? The Chargers currently rank 31st in rush defense. Ahem.

Other choices: Jamaal Charles, KC vs. New Orleans Saints ($5,700); Spencer Ware, KC vs. New Orleans Saints ($5,700) – Yes, I like both Chiefs’ RBs this week. Work them in as you see fit. Don’t be surprised to see both get plenty of touches.

Value
Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. Cleveland Browns ($4,800) – Bernard is a good risk at this price, considering his rushing and receiving ability out of the backfield. One of the better values on the board this week, you can find room in your lineup for Bernard, right? Cash or tournament plays are just fine.

Other choices: Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. San Diego Chargers ($4,900); Terrance West, BAL @ New York Jets ($4,800); James White, NE @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,600)

Over-Value
Christine Michael, SEA @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,700) – Again, it’s not that Michael is a bad play, I just think you can get better production for your dollars spent. The Cardinals defense is decent against the run and I’m not willing to spend almost $7 K to lock him up. While Michael may get plenty of touches this week, I’m passing.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level
A.J. Green, CIN vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,600) – I’m all-in on Green this week. Why? Sure, the matchup plays into things as the Browns seem quite hapless these days, but I really love that Green is being targeted over 10 times a game so far this season. I expect the same amount of targets in Week 7, with Green catching six of them. Add in 100+ yards and a TD or two, you’ve got a player worth every dollar.

Other choices: Amari Cooper, OAK @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,900); T.Y. Hilton, IND @ Tennessee Titans ($7,700)

Mid-Range
Jeremy Maclin, KC vs. New Orleans Saints ($6,700) – Even with Maclin’s disappointing production so far this year, he still provides an intriguing option to pick for one of your WR slots. Maclin draws the Saints, albeit not in New Orleans. We should see double-digit production and I’m betting that it’s on the higher side close to 20 points. What I really like is Maclin’s potential this week to have his biggest week of the young season.

Other choices: Doug Baldwin, SEA @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,400)

Value
Allen Hurns, JAC vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,000) – Yep, it’s all about the matchup. But, also, it’s about the looks that Hurns is getting in the Jaguars offense. With defenses paying extra attention to Allen Robinson, Hurns will continue to see good looks.

Other choices: Jamison Crowder, WAS @ Detroit Lions ($4,300)

Over-Value
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. Seattle Seahawks ($7,100) – Fitzgerald has certainly earned the $7.1 K price tag he has right now, although you shouldn’t feel like you have to roster him. I’m steering clear, mainly since the matchup is tough and Carson Palmer’s injury situation bugs me. Hamstring injuries – blah.

TIGHT END

Top Level
Rob Gronkowski, NE @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,200)

Mid-Range
Travis Kelce, KC vs. New Orleans Saints ($5,300)

Value
Dennis Pitta, BAL @ New York Jets ($4,000)

Over-Value
Jordan Reed, WAS @ Detroit Lions ($6,000)

Good luck in Week 7! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy