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Target and Snap Analysis Week 17 2016
Targets & Snaps: Week 17
If you are reading this and have your feet kicked up and are basking in glory, then congratulations champ! Your Jordy Nelson’s and Dez Bryant’s came to play in Week 16 and brought you a fantasy football championship. Many of you, myself included, missed out on a few championships this season. True story: I lost a championship game by 5.6 points in a league that awards six points to quarterbacks for passing touchdowns. I was NOT credited for Dez Bryant’s passing touchdown, which would have given me the trophy by .4 points. Thems the breaks, they say.
After this week, I will have the opportunity to pour over the season-long stats and give you a year in review of our target and snap data. Before we get to that, let’s look at last week’s target and snap data and what that data could mean for this week.
You can access our target and snap data using the links below.
Targets (including 3 week data): http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootballtargets/fantasy-football-target-stats.cfm
Targets (including red zone data): http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm
Let’s get to it (one last time in 2016).
- LeGarrette Blount leads all running backs with 17 rushing touchdowns. He has 71% of the teams’ red zone carries, and 70% of the teams’ 10-zone carries. 16 of his 17 touchdowns have come in the red zone and 15 have come from within the 10-zone. In PPR scoring, he is the RB8. He does not have a single receiving target in the red zone or the 10-zone this season.
- Melvin Gordon has not scored a single point in three weeks and he is still the RB7 with 248 points, just three shy of Devonta Freeman.
- Ezekiel Elliott isn’t the only rookie running back that is a fantasy football RB1. Jordan Howard (RB9) has just three games this season where he did NOT score double-digit fantasy points.
- Jordy Nelson is, in my humble opinion, the fantasy football MVP of 2016 and the real-life Comeback Player of the Year. Coming off of a devastating injury, he leads all receivers with 14 touchdowns. In Week 16, where his owners’ needed him most, he was the WR2 with 36 PPR points.
- The WR1 in Week 16 was Adam Theilen, who put up 44 PPR points. That is the highest score a wide receiver has posted since Julio Jones went off in Week 4 for 48 PPR points.
- Jones is currently the WR5 in PPR scoring. He has a combined 35 points over the past six weeks. 44 points separate Jones and the WR4, Mike Evans. This week, Jones gets the New Orleans Saints at home with a 56.5 Vegas line.
- The Arizona Cardinals lead the league with 1,081 snaps run. Larry Fitzgerald has been on the field for 93% of them, David Johnson 88%. Here is how their receiving numbers stack up.
Fitzgerald has five receiving touchdowns and Johnson has four. Johnson has 16 rushing touchdowns as well and leads all non-quarterbacks with 20 total touchdowns.
- The Miami Dolphins (890) and the Kansas City Chiefs (899) are the only teams who have yet to reach 900 snaps this season. Here is how their offensive players have performed with their league-low opportunities:
o QB: Ryan Tannehill – QB19 / Alex Smith – QB28
o WR: Jarvis Landry – WR16, Kenny Stills – WR47, DeVante Parker – WR51 / Tyreek Hill – WR25, Jeremy Maclin – WR76
o RB: Jay Ajayi – RB13, Spencer Ware – RB14
o TE: Dion Sims – TE33, Travis Kelce – TE1
- Allen Robinson and Mike Evans are the only two receivers with 30% of their teams’ targets. Their numbers are drastically different:
- Here are the current 1,000 Yard receivers:
Their Week 17 matchups and their opponents’ rank against the pass:
o T.Y. Hilton vs Jacksonville Jaguars – 2nd
o *Odell Beckham, Jr. @ Washington Redskins – 21st (could see limited playing time)
o Julio Jones vs New Orleans Saints – 30th
o *Antonio Brown vs Cleveland Browns – 28th (already declared OUT)
o Mike Evans vs Carolina Panthers – 31st
o Jordy Nelson @ Detroit Lions – 26th
o Brandin Cooks @ Atlanta Falcons – 29th
o Amari Cooper @ Denver Broncos – 1st
o Doug Baldwin @ San Francisco 49ers – 19th
o Jarvis Landry vs New England Patriots – 9th
o Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders vs Oakland Raiders – 22nd
o Kenny Britt vs Arizona Cardinals – 8th
o Golden Tate vs Green Bay Packers – 32nd
Week 17 is a bitter-sweet week in many ways. We are someone bitter because the season is coming to a close but we are also bitter because playing time becomes difficult to determine. The picture for many players will become clearer as the week goes on, so be sure to pay attention. Week 17 is also sweet because some are still playing in championships, or taking their final shot on regular season daily fantasy. Regardless, Week 17 should not be ignored and neither should the players, their statistics, or their matchups. Good luck this week!