Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 3

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan I’m a huge, huge reader. I read a lot of content throughout the week about everything from redraft to dynasty to daily fantasy. I try to absorb as much information as I can because I figure it must help me make sound decisions. I’m a total football content book worm. Bob Harris’ Team Notes and Three and Out are two must-read resources for me each week. So is John Laub’s Sheet of Integrity, Armando Marsal’s Flex Plays, and Justin Lonero’s Digging in the Crates. I also read content on other sites, and am a huge fan of Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, Evan Silva’s Matchups Column, and Scott Barrett’s WR vs.CB Breakdown. So, again, just to emphasize my original point: I read A LOT.

Absorbing the amount of content that I do is a double-edged sword. I sometimes wonder if I am almost over-educating myself. Last week’s slate is a great example of this. I, like basically every single person who plays daily fantasy football, rolled out many Eli Manning/Odell Beckham stacks. Vegas had the line of this game in the mid-50’s and Vegas made a killing when it turned out to be a low-scoring game. What I am getting at is, sometimes we need to be mindful of the chalk plays being touted each week and sometimes we need to get as far away from them as we can. So what I am going to do this week is tell you the players I have read about constantly since Tuesday, and these are the players I am staying the hell away from in DFS this week.

QB – Ryan Tannehill, $6,200 and Philip Rivers, $6,700
Everyone and their mother (who writes daily fantasy content) is all over Tannehill vs. Cleveland and Rivers @ Indianapolis. The matchups are ridiculously juicy and these make sense as high-floor cash game plays and even GPP plays to keep you in line with the competition.

My Pivots: Jameis Winston, $6,000 and Alex Smith, $5,800
People will be off Winston this week due to a terrible Week 2 performance and the “tough” matchup against the Rams. The Winston/Mike Evans combination torched the Rams for 157 yards on nine receptions, not to mention a whopping 17 targets. Alex Smith is always a threat to be sacked multiple times, but he is mobile and the Jets can be thrown on. The Smith/Jeremy Maclin stack is another cheap contrarian option I am looking to exploit.

WR – Jarvis Landry, $6,600 and Travis Benjamin, $5,200
It should shock no one that the chalk receivers are the main targets of the chalk quarterbacks this week. Landry is a target-monster who should have little problem racking up double-digit receptions and a score against the falling-apart Browns. As for Benjamin, his ownership could get rather close to 40% with Antonio Gates looking doubtful.

My Pivots: Michael Crabtree, $6,000 and Golden Tate, $5,900
I am having a hard time understanding why more people aren’t talking about Michael Crabtree. He is $1,700 cheaper than Amari Cooper and is – gulp – a better receiver than Cooper. I understand there are a lot of mouths to feed in Oakland but I am looking for Crabtree to eat this week against the Tennessee Titans. I gushed over Golden Tate earlier in the week when I spoke with Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey about him on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio. I told them Tate would be in all of my lineups and I was not lying. Marvin Jones will be another chalk-play and I am buying into Tate before his blow-up game and before he goes back up over $6,000.

RB – Charles Sims, $4,900 and Melvin Gordon, $5,800
Since I am very bad at lying I am going to admit that Sims will be in some of my lineups. He is dirt cheap and the opportunity to go off this week is there for him with Doug Martin out. He will be in just a few though, as I project him to be the highest-owned running back of the slate. Melvin Gordon will be gifted the opportunity to run loose on the Indianapolis Colts. I hate to give you a bunch of Chargers in this write up, but they are just the chalk plays this week.

My Pivots: Frank Gore, $5,000 and Shane Vereen, $3,700
Gore is an especially sweet choice for me because it will be fun to use him against so many people who will have Gordon in their lineups. Gore has already seen more targets in the past two weeks than he did last season and should finally get over the century mark this week. I love his chances of hitting value at his cost. Speaking of cost, how on Earth is Shane Vereen $3,700? Rashad Jennings will be playing with a cast on his thumb and we have already seen Vereen’s usage increase vastly from Week 1 to Week 2. In a division game that is likely to be a close one, I could see Vereen leading the team in receptions, not just carries.

TE – Delanie Walker (Q), $5,000 and Eric Ebron (Q), $3,700
Both tight ends are listed as questionable, but with the probable tag being gone it is hard to tell how questionable they really are, so just be sure to monitor their status before lock. Walker vs. Oakland will be the top play this week if he suits up and Ebron @ Green Bay will be right up there with him. These are premium matchups for both of these tight ends and with their cost, mainly Ebron’s, the rest of a lineup can shake out really nicely if you use them.

My Pivots: Jesse James, $3,500 and Jimmy Graham, $3,000
James is going against, on paper, the top defense against tight ends in the Philadelphia Eagles. James has also played on 100% of his teams’ snaps and will expose the Eagles defense this weekend. Ben Roethlisberger is excellent at using his tight end, especially in the red zone. I am personally not a Jimmy Graham believer due to his devastating patellar injury, but then I saw Victor Cruz bounce back and I am now on board. Imagine just a year ago Graham costing $3,000? Pair that cost with a home matchup against the San Francisco 49ers and you get the upside of a Graham explosion in front of the 12’s this weekend.

DST – Seahawks, $4,100 and Dolphins, $3,000
Seattle is the top-priced defense this week and are mega-chalk at home against Blaine Gabbert and company. If you are sick of reading about the Dolphins in this article I can assure you I am sick of writing about them as well, but the matchup against Cleveland, who will be starting rookie quarterback Cody Kessler, makes a lot of a sense as to why the community will be all over them this week.

My Pivots: If, and that is a big if, I am paying up for a defense this week it would be the Cardinals at $3,600 on the road against the Bills, who turn into a sloppier team every week. Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson should be able to bait Tyrod Taylor into a pick or two, and Sammy Watkins is likely to miss this game. I think Bruce Arians’ Cardinals can be an absolute nightmare for Rob, I mean Rex, Ryan’s Bills. On the cheaper side of the spectrum, I am looking at the Bengals at $2,800. They are playing the Broncos, which will be reason enough for some people to be off them, but I like them as a sneaky play to contain C.J Anderson, pick and sack Tevor Siemian, and keep Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in check.

While I encourage you to read as much as you can, football content or otherwise, be mindful of what sort of bias that can create in your head. If you read enough content from people you trust about the money-making Tannehill/Jarvis stack this weekend you will be all over it. Throw them in a lineup or two, but be sure to fade the chalk and get all kinds of contrarian. That is usually what does the trick when it comes to taking down one of these GPPs. Good luck this weekend, and reach out to me on Twitter @FFdeJENerate to let me know how you do!