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Free Agency Stock Market: Wide Receivers 2018

By Alex McCarthy

With the 2017-2018 NFL season in the books and the Patriots satisfyingly defeated like the Disney villains that they are, it is time for the dynasty-inclined to look ahead to potential offseason movement and how it will affect player valuations. In this first installment of a mini-series on free agency, I have written up detailed breakdowns on who I feel are the eight most valuable wide receivers entering free agency. They are listed below in descending order of value according to my personal opinion (assuming 0.5 PPR scoring).

Jarvis Landry (25)

History: Jarvis Landry is the opposite of Julio Jones. He’s not going to single-handedly win you weeks with a three-hundred yard explosion, but he is the embodiment of consistency at the wide receiver position (especially in PPR formats). He led the league in receptions last year with 112 and his crisp route-running out of the slot has led him to finish as WR12, WR14, and WR7 (in 0.5 PPR) over the past three years. Landry is only 25 and is already a proven high-end WR2/low-end WR1 (depending on format), and this combination of factors makes him a highly valuable dynasty commodity.

Speculation: Reports from Miami speak of increasing dissatisfaction on the part of Landry, who appears to be seeking big money and called the Dolphins’ initial offers “insulting”. Even if he leaves, however, his value is likely to remain fairly static. Most of his likely destinations would provide him with similarly mediocre quarterbacking to what he had in Miami, and his role operating out of the slot as the first passing option would be highly unlikely to change. A glaring exception would be if he went to San Francisco, where chemistry with a budding Garoppolo could translate to fantasy brilliance.

Buy if: You believe the 49ers will sign him, or if you can get him for rookie pick #5 or lower.

Sell if: You can get rookie pick #2 or better.

Hold if: you believe the 49ers will sign him, or you can’t get rookie pick #2 or better.

Allen Robinson (25)

History: Robinson was a fantasy darling when he burst onto the scene as a sophomore in 2015, putting up a 80/1400/14 statline that made him WR7 overall that year but would have made him WR1 either of the past two seasons. Since then, however, his luck has not been so great- he regressed to a 73/883/6 line in 2016 and then watched from the sidelines this season as a season-ending injury opened the door for talented teammates Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole. That said, the physical ability that led to his second-round draft stock and his sophomore year explosion remains tantalizing evidence of a possible buy-low for dynasty owners.

Speculation: Things don’t look great for a 2018 Robinson resurgence as they currently stand. Most expert speculation points to the Jaguars using the franchise tag on their elite young receiver, and unfortunately most of the same experts believe that failed QB experiment Blake Bortles will be back as well. A run-first offense with a bad QB and solid secondary WR weapons is not ideal for a player that profiles as a true WR1, and as long as he remains in Jacksonville catching passes from Bortles it is unlikely that Robinson will even approach his previous production. There is still reason for hope, however- beyond the obvious fact that Robinson is immensely talented and talent > situation when evaluating WRs in dynasty, the emergence of alternative pass-catching threats in Jacksonville means the Jaguars may be more comfortable parting with ARob. Even if they choose to apply the franchise tag this year, their defense is full of young stars who will need to be paid soon and will likely prevent them from offering the kind of long-term deal Robinson is looking to get.

Buy if: You believe the Jaguars will surprise people and let him go in free agency this offseason, or if you can get him for rookie pick #6 or cheaper.

Sell if: You believe the Jaguars will sign Robinson to a long-term deal, or if you can get rookie pick #3 or better.

Hold if: You believe Robinson will find a friendly landing spot and return to WR1 form.

Sammy Watkins (25)

History: For dynasty owners who preach the long game and follow talent above all else, Sammy Watkins is beginning to become problematic. An athletic freak who runs beautiful routes and was selected fourth overall in a stacked NFL draft, Watkins has spent most of his early career plagued with injury and has been mostly underwhelming even when healthy (a 2015 statline of 60/1047/9 in thirteen games has largely kept hope alive). His 2017 season was supposed to be a coming-out party of sorts, but despite the success of the Rams offense he failed to achieve even a WR3 season (he was WR38 overall) and had fewer yards and receptions than either journeyman Robert Woods or rookie Cooper Kupp.

Speculation: Despite his relatively low usage, Watkins scored eight touchdowns for the Rams last season and was invaluable in drawing coverage to open up the offense. Los Angeles appears poised to use the franchise tag on the still-young WR and lock him down for next season without committing to anything long-term. The touchdown totals are promising but as long as he stays on a team that spreads the ball around so much, his fantasy upside is extremely limited. His youth, talent, and the fact that he’s not locked into a long-term deal make him an intriguing potential buy-low (as with Robinson), but I see more danger of Watkins becoming a long-term Ram than of Robinson becoming a long-term Jaguar.

Buy if: You think he will carve out a more prominent role in LA or depart for elsewhere, or if you can get him for rookie pick #9 or cheaper.

Sell if: You can get rookie pick #6 or better.

Hold if: You think he will carve out a more prominent role in LA or depart for elsewhere.

Tyrell Williams (26)

History: An undrafted free agent who only saw five targets during his 2015 rookie year, Williams became the de facto WR1 for the Chargers in 2016 after taking over the role from an injured Keenan Allen. All he did with the opportunity was put up 69/1059/7 in only twelve games started and finish as the overall WR15 in 0.5 PPR. Allen returned in 2017 and Williams was relegated to a secondary role, but despite his significantly lowered targets both his efficiency and YPR actually increased.

Speculation: Williams has demonstrated the ability to put up WR1 numbers on the NFL level, which is not something you can say about many players who won’t cost you a first round pick. With as many pass-catching weapons as the Chargers have it is highly unlikely he returns to LA, and he profiles as the true WR1 that many teams are looking for. He is one of my favorite underrated gems in the league right now, and if he lands somewhere like the Bears I believe he could become a reliable high-end WR1/low-end WR2 for the foreseeable future. If there is one player on this list you need to target at his current market value, it is absolutely Williams.

Buy if: You think he will go to the Bears, or if you can get him for rookie pick #14 or cheaper.

Sell if: You can get rookie pick #11 or better.

Hold if: You think he will go to the Bears.

Jordan Matthews (26)

History: A second-round selection out of Vanderbilt by the Eagles in 2014, Matthews spent his first two years as a highly productive second passing option in the Philly attack. In 2016 he appeared poised for a classic third-year breakout, but instead regressed and saw the fewest yards and touchdowns of his career to that point. He became a bit of a post-hype sleeper prior to the 2017 season, but a trade to the Bills and an early injury led to him missing more than half the season and underperforming even when he saw the field. With Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones as the presumptive WR1 and WR2 in a Buffalo offense that barely passes the ball anyway, all signs point to a Matthews’ departure in free agency.

Speculation: The last two years notwithstanding, Matthews is a solid possession receiver who excels when playing across from someone who can draw top CB coverage. If he ends up on a team which needs such a role filled he could replicate his production from his rookie and sophomore year (WR25 and WR19, respectively), making him a potential steal for an owner willing to overlook recent struggles. If the owner in your league is deep at WR or low on Matthews, make a move now before he lands somewhere friendly in free agency.

Buy if: You think he will land somewhere that allows him to operate in his comfort zone as a WR2, or if you can get him for rookie pick #15.

Sell if: You can get rookie pick #12 or better.

Hold if: You think he will land somewhere that allows him to operate in his comfort zone as a WR2, or you can’t get rookie pick #12 or better.

Marqise Lee (26)

History: A former winner of the Biletnikoff Award for the nation’s top college receiver, Lee was a depth receiver on Jaguars for several years but has blossomed of late into a legitimate threat with WR2 upside. In 2017 a season-ending injury to Allen Robinson provided opportunity for the fourth-year WR and Lee seized it, finishing with a stat line of 56/702/3- not exactly spectacular, but promising considering it took place over only fourteen games in a run-first offense.

Speculation: Lee enters free agency this offseason alongside fellow Jags WR Robinson, and it seems extremely likely that at least one of the two will be departing Jacksonville. Considering the reports of Robinson being potentially franchise tagged, Lee seems the more likely candidate to be leaving behind the Bortles passing attack and reaping the benefits thereof. He has never played with a good quarterback before and has shown serious talent in the past (Biletnikoff), so a move to the right offense as he enters his prime could cause his value to skyrocket. Buy now while there are still owners out there who have yet to recognize his potential.

Buy if: you can get him for rookie pick #17 or cheaper.

Sell if: you can get rookie pick #14 or better.

Hold if: you think he will get picked up by a team with a serious QB upgrade, or you can’t get rookie pick #12 or better.

Paul Richardson (26)

History: Richardson was a fairly well-regarded prospect coming out of college who was selected in the second round of the draft by the Seahawks and is now entering his fifth season (and more importantly, free agency). His development timetable was slowed by the loss of almost his entire sophomore season to injury, but last year he was finally healthy and broke out as the definitive WR2 to Doug Baldwin’s WR1. He put up a 44/703/6 stat line (good for WR36 in 0.5 PPR) and had an impressive YPR (yards-per-reception) of 16.

Speculation: Whether or not Richardson will be back is a hot topic of conversation among Seattle fans right now, as dropping enough money to keep him would make it difficult for the Seahawks to shore up other areas of need in free agency. Richardson would be an excellent fit for any team looking for a secondary receiving option, and in particular any team looking for someone to stretch the field and take the top off of the defense (he runs a 4.40 40). Most teams would be a fairly significant step down in terms of quarterback quality, but it is also true that his speed could be better utilized on a team that can give it’s QB time in the pocket (something the Seahawks have struggled with, to say the least).

Buy if: you think he will stay on the Seahawks and they will improve their offensive line, or if you can get him for rookie pick #19 or cheaper.

Sell if: you can get rookie pick #16 or better.

Hold if: you think he will stay on the Seahawks and they will improve their offensive line, or if you can’t get rookie pick #16 or better.

Terrelle Pryor (29)

History: For the first four years of his NFL career, Pryor played quarterback badly. Then, for one year in 2016, he played wide receiver well (overall WR20). The following year, he moved to a better offense with a better quarterback… and played receiver badly again (lost his starting job and finished with forty fantasy points for the whole season). Nobody really knows what to make of Pryor at this point because frankly, there has never been a player that followed anything like his career trajectory. What we do know is that he has outrageous physical gifts and that at one point in time he knew how to put them productive use. Whether or not he’ll ever do that again seems to be anybody’s guess.

Speculation: Pryor will get a chance to make the roster somewhere if only because he’s a physical freak, but whether or not he survives cuts is probably a coin flip. That said, we see stranger things than a Pryor resurgence happen in the NFL every year and at his current price it costs you basically nothing to make that bet. Football is a chaotic beast and there’s no better way to embrace that than buying a (cheap) lottery ticket on a guy like Pryor.

Buy if: You can get him for rookie pick #27 or cheaper.

Sell if: You can get rookie pick #24 or better.

Hold if: You can’t get rookie pick #24 or better.