DFS Gut Plays week 13 2017

By JJ Buck

If you’re reading this, you are amid a whirlwind of fantasy opinion and statistic overload. With this article we are looking at matchups that standout after a quick look over of the schedule and prices; going with your gut. Sometimes the obvious play is the best and sometimes it burns us. Here we’ll look at Draft Kings (DK) and Yahoo Sports (YS). As always, be sure to know the scoring settings; DK is PPR scoring opposed to .5 PPR for Yahoo.

Quarterbacks

Case Keenum – Minnesota – (DK $6,000 – YS $34)

Keenum is having a special season. He’s clicking with all the options around him and that’s why there are plenty of Vikings that are worth playing this weekend. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of their last four games with nine touchdowns and two interceptions over that span. The Falcons have scored 27, 34 and 34 points over the last three weeks (DAL, @SEA, TB) giving them some confidence to make this a close game. As road underdogs Keenum will need to keep up the pace to stay on point. (ATL -3, O/U 47)

Drew Brees – New Orleans – (DK $6.500 – YS $33)

The best thing that could have happened to Drew Brees is the worst thing for fantasy players. The Saints are third in the NFL with 142.1 rush yards per-game and that means less of the Brees or bust passing days. He still has the ability to take over a game when needed (see Washington) and because of the run game will be overlooked in what is perceived as a tough matchup this weekend hosting Carolina. When these two teams played in Carolina, Brees completed 22-of-29 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns. I will take a chance on Brees this weekend on YS as he his priced behind nine other passers. (NO -4.5, O/U 48)

Running Backs

Jordan Howard –Chicago – (DK $6,500 – YS $31)

We’re back on board the Howard train this week as the Bears welcome in the third worst rush defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We know the game plan; John Fox will lean on his running back to limit Mitch Trubisky having to do too much. I wouldn’t expect anything less than at least 20 carries for Howard. (CHI -3, O/U 41)

Dion Lewis – New England – (DK $5,500 – YS $21)

Will a modest price bump and two Rex Burkhead touchdowns keep people away from Lewis? Probably not, but that’s fine with me. He received the first carry inside the 10-yard line before Burkhead ran on the field to vulture the rushing score last week. Lewis ran 15 times for 112 yards and is the running back the Patriots lean on to grid out games. Expect more of the same at Buffalo this weekend. (NE -9, O/U 48.5)

Marshawn Lynch – Oakland – (DK $4,800 – YS $19)

All three Raider running backs are on my value radar; Deandre Washington ($3,800 - $13) and Jalane Richard ($3,700 - $11). Michael Crabtree is out and Amari Cooper is doubtful so I expect the running backs to pick up most of the slack. Lynch carried the ball 26 times against the Broncos, Washington chipped in six carries and Richard added a touchdown reception. It’s a mess, but so are the Giants. I’ll start with Lynch and work my way down if I need salary relief. (OAK -8.5, O/U 42)

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs – Minnesota – (DK $6,200 – YS $23)

The ‘other guy’ in the Vikings passing game has the talent, but is much more volatile on a weekly basis. The gut is feeling a trip to the end zone for Diggs and modest ownership as his price is hovering in questionable return range. (ATL -3, O/U 47)

Jarvis Landry – Miami - (DK $5,900 – YS $21)

Last week Devante Adams took over as the DK reception filler and it was only to do something different. The Baltimore game was the only contest in which Landry scored less than 10 points on Draft Kings. I’m not worried about any matchup or quarterback when there are only two games on the season where he saw single-digit targets. (DEN -1.5, O/U 39.5)

Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh – (DK $4,500 – YS $14)

Keep an eye on JuJu Smith-Schuster’s hamstring. Bryant is back in the good graces of all and even with JuJu on the field he is a viable WR3 at this price. Stepping up as the #2 option last week he dropped a 4-40-1 line on the Packers. I’m not going to over correct to Road Ben this weekend Monday night at Cincinnati. (PIT -5.5, O/U 43)

Marquise Goodwin – San Francisco – (DK $4,000 – YS $13)

My punt play of the weekend is the one game breaker in the 49ers receiving core. Jimmy Garoppolo will be making his first career start as the new face of the franchise and I expect Kyle Shanahan to dial up enough plays down field to test out his arm in Chicago. (CHI -3, O/U 41)

DK Reception Filler – Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000)
YS Touchdown Maker – Mike Evans ($30)

Tight Ends

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – New York Jets – (DK $4,000 – YS $14)

Opposite my top TE (Travis Kelce) this weekend is some value at the position with ASJ. He dropped a wide open touchdown pass last week and that’s what you are betting on, the red zone targets. He’ll get a few looks against a reeling Kansas City squad this weekend. (KC -3.5, O/U 44)

O.J. Howard – Tampa Bay – (DK $2,800 – YS $11)

Jameis Winston is back and that should give the biggest boost to the Bucs TE’s. I was all set to write up Cameron Brate ($2,900 - $10) until I saw that Howard out snapped Brate 53-34 last week against the Falcons. If the snaps continue in favor of Howard he’ll have a shot to provide plus value against Green Bay. (GB -1, O/U 44.5)

Yahoo Cup Review

143.62 points scored Week 12; 2,141st place out of 381,569 entries.
QB – Tyrod Taylor – (14.02) – Didn’t get the rushing pop, average day at an average price.
RB – Kareem Hunt – (3.10) – That’ll be my last run with Hunt this season.
RB – Dion Lewis – (11.80) – Ride the safe and solid floor.
WR – Julio Jones – (44.80) – Only 1.5% owned this past weekend, too easy vs. TB.
WR – Cooper Kupp – (15.60) – Took advantage of Saints injuries with 8-116 on 11 targets.
WR – Martavis Bryant – (12.10) – Ben and the boys rounding into form.
TE – Delanie Walker – (14.30) – Scored his first TD of the year!
Flex –Jimmy Graham – (10.90) – All about the RZ. A late score saved the day.
DEF – Patriots – (17.00) – Seven sacks, three takeaways and 11 pts allowed.

Odds from VegasInsider.com