THE SHADOW KNOWS Week 8 2021

By Gary Davenport
Gary Davenport

When it comes to intercepting passes in 2021, it's Trevon Diggs' world-other cornerbacks just live in it.

The second-year pro is on a historic rip to open the season. In all six of his games so far this season, Diggs has intercepted at least one pass. He has seven total already this year, two of which have been returned for touchdowns. And as Craig Peters reported for the Minnesota Vikings website, with the Cowboys headed to the Twin Cities off the bye, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is well aware of the rip that Diggs is on.

"You can't deny what he's accomplished. He's a great player," Cousins said. "I remember going back to his days at Alabama with Stefon (Diggs) being here, I talked with Stefon about his brother and knew he was a great player, gonna be a player in the league, so there's respect for him. You always understand that going into a game."

Given those six picks and a passer rating against of just 43.1, more than a few fantasy managers are at least somewhat antsy about the Week 8 prospects of Justin Jefferson, who should draw Diggs most of the game in coverage. But as Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus told Nick Shook of NFL.com, the analytics community isn't as enamored with Diggs this season.

"I've seen some people refer to Diggs as 'cornerback Jameis Winston,' " Monson said. "It's a facetious joke, but there's a little bit of truth in it as well. He's made some incredible plays and obviously multiple defensive touchdowns; he's put points on the board. But's he's also ranked like fourth in the NFL in terms of yardage given up in coverage, and Dallas was on a bye week [in Week 7]. So, he's played a game less than a lot of these guys. He's third in the NFL in terms of yards per catch given up. He's given up 19 yards per reception. So, when he gets beat, it can be pretty ugly."

That's the dichotomy of Diggs this year-the Diggsotomy, if you will. Yes, he has made of plethora of big plays. But he has allowed his fair share as well. There's a reason why despite all those interceptions Diggs has still been targeted 43 times-tied for seventh-most in the league.

Could Diggs notch pick No. 8 this week? Sure, although Cousins has taken excellent care of the football this season. But it's just as possible (if not more so) that Jefferson will get behind him for a long score.
 

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (Donte Jackson vs. Calvin Ridley)

Atlanta's Calvin Ridley hasn't been the biggest bust at the position in fantasy, but he's on the short list-the fourth-year pro ranks outside the top-40 in PPR points after being drafted inside the top-five in some leagues. Unfortunately, as Chris Towers wrote for CBS Sports, there aren't any easy answers for why Ridley has disappointed so thoroughly in 2021.

"This is an execution issue, not a role issue," he said. "The Falcons aren't targeting Ridley down the field as aggressively as they have been in the past, but the bigger problem is Ryan has completed just two of 12 attempts over 15 yards down the field when targeting Ridley. And it's not like there's any one reason for all of the misses. It's not like Ridley just isn't getting open and winning down the field, nor is Ryan just underthrowing them all. Those would give you a reasonable explanation for the struggles. The truth is, they just haven't been able to hit as often as you'd want, and it's not necessarily anyone's fault."

If there's a bright side here, it's that a Week 8 date with the Carolina Panthers (and a potential shadow matchup with Donte Jackson could be just what the doctor ordered. Jackson has shadowed an opposing No. 1 receiver four times this season. All posted double-digit fantasy points, with Houston's Brandin Cooks hitting the 20-point mark back in Week 3.

 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Xavien Howard vs. Stefon Diggs)

The Miami Dolphins entered the 2021 season with quite a bit of momentum after a 10-win 2020 campaign, but after six straight losses every bit of that momentum. A struggling secondary has played its part in that long skid, and with 2021 looking like a lost cause, Mike Masala of Dolphins Wire thinks Miami could be shopping veteran cornerback Xavien Howard ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline.

"A first-team All-Pro last year, Howard stumbled out of the gate this season but had a really solid Week 7 performance against Atlanta," he said. "On Sunday, he was credited with eight targets, allowing just one reception for 28 yards while recording an interception for a 2.1 passer rating against. Howard and the Dolphins had a tough time getting together on a contract this offseason and are scheduled to revisit the matter at the conclusion of the 2021 campaign. If Miami continues struggling and the contract appears to be an issue, it might be more beneficial to get an early draft pick that the team can either use to bring in another young player or as part of a trade for a veteran."

Howard isn't the only high-priced corner struggling in Miami this year-if Byron Jones has been better, it has been only marginally so. Stefon Diggs hasn't produced like fantasy managers had hoped in 2021, but his target share has been solid, he's coming off a 9/89/1 game against Tennessee two weeks ago and posted a 4/60/1 line in Buffalo's first meeting with the Dolphins in 2021.

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Diontae Johnson vs. Denzel Ward)

There is no shortage of subplots in Sunday's AFC North showdown in Cleveland, whether it's all the injuries in Cleveland (including a hamstring that could sideline cornerback Denzel Ward) or the Steelers' attempt to avenge last season's playoff embarrassment. It's also a game in which Kyle Yates of Fantasy Pros expects Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson to have himself a day.

"This Steelers offense isn't exactly one that we would all call "high-powered", but that doesn't matter much for Johnson's fantasy outlook," Yates said. "He's finished as a top-20 option each of his past four games that he's played, and the target volume is among the best in the NFL at the WR position. The Browns have struggled to contain opposing WRs so far this season and Johnson should see plenty of work yet again in this one. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 with upside."

Johnson should be fine in Week 8 regardless of whether Ward plays or not. Batterymate Chase Claypool could find himself in something of a smash spot as well-Claypool has a substantial size advantage over Cleveland's cornerbacks, and in three meetings with the Browns in 2020 Claypool averaged almost 18.5 PPR fantasy points per game.

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (Terry McLaurin vs. Ronald Darby)
According to Pro Football Focus, nearly half (19) of Terry McLaurin's 40 receptions this season have come in contested-catch situations. Some might use that statistic to laud McLaurin's ability to go get the football, but for Jon Hoefling of Deadspin this was an opportunity to wonder aloud what McLaurin's numbers might look like with a better quarterback than Taylor Heinicke throwing him the ball.

"I know Heinicke is a feel-good story in the NFL," he said. "He was fun to watch against the Buccaneers in the playoffs last season, and he's shown just enough talent to really inspire confidence in him from Washington fans. However, he's not as good as those fans would like to believe. He often leaves balls short and fails to lead McLaurin to areas where only McLaurin can catch the ball. It has forced McLaurin to make several contested catches."

For most of his career, Ronald Darby of the Denver Broncos has been a capable veteran cornerback. But so far this year, the seventh-year pro has allowed over 71 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed for an average of over 15 yards a completion with a passer rating against of 123.3. Worry more about the quarterback than the coverage with McLaurin this week.

 

 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore)

There may not be a matchup between a cornerback and wide receiver that contains more genuine personal animosity than the twice-yearly meetings between Tampa's Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore of the Saints. It goes all the way back to Evans getting elected for shoving Lattimore from behind in 2017, and as Saints beat writer Katherine Terrell wrote at the Athletic, Lattimore is at his best when it's personal.

"He goes into some other level when he plays against receivers he doesn't like," Terrell said. "If you watched DK Metcalf when the Saints played the Seahawks, he had that one explosive TD when Lattimore slipped after some hand fighting between the two, but then he only had one catch for 12 yards after that. And Lattimore dislikes Evans to the point of refusing to say anything nice about him lately (Evans appears to feel the same). So not only do I expect a great matchup, I expect past history to repeat itself here."

Evans is essentially impossible to sit, especially coming off a three-score effort against the Chicago Bears. But this will mark the ninth time that Evans and Lattimore have glared at one another dating back to 2017, and in those eight meetings Evans has more games with under 20 receiving yards (four) than contests with a touchdown (three).