THE SHADOW KNOWS Week 15 2021

THE SHADOW KNOWS: Week 15
There are some certainties in life. Death. Taxes. In 2021, players landing on the COVID-19 list at the worst possible time (what a brutal week). And in this column, the intro being about Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marson Lattimore of the New Orleans Saints.

Simply put (and this is not an exaggeration), there may not be two players in the NFL who like one another less than the Bucs wideout and the Saints cornerback. You could chalk it up to familiarity breeding contempt, but this is a pair that came to blows all the way back in 2017.

Lattimore and Evans just cannot stand one another.

Overall, it has been Lattimore who has won more plays than he has lost over the history of this rivalry. In their first meeting this season, Evans was targeted just four times, hauling in two for 48 yards. One of those catches, however, was a touchdown, and Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports thinks that Evans' penchant for big plays and scores offsets some of the unease regarding this matchup.

"Maybe it's not one of his peak performance weeks because the match-up, but the Saints have definitely been vulnerable to wide receivers all season long," he said. "Even if Marshon Lattimore's coverage is an exception, I don't think it's strong enough to bench him this week. I think you count on one or two maybe big plays for Mike Evans and that's going to be enough to make your fantasy week in week 15. I'm fearlessly forecasting 5 catches for 81 yards."

Lattimore's play has been erratic this year-he has allowed 725 yards and six scores in coverage this season, and the Saints have allowed the fifth-most PPR points to wide receivers this season. Evans may be ranked a tad lower this week than most, but he's still at the very least a higher-end WR2 and a guy who needs to be in playoff lineups.
 

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts (J.C. Jackson vs. Michael Pittman)

There must be something in the water in New England, because the Patriots have a tendency to turn undrafted cornerbacks into stars. First there was Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler, and now J.C. Jackson appears headed toward his first Pro Bowl after following up last year's nine-interception breakout with seven more over 13 games in 2021. However, as Oliver Thomas reported for Forbes, in Jackson's opinion being a complete cornerback is about a lot more than just interceptions.

"Just being a complete player is just helping my team out," said Jackson. "Just being a complete player, not just intercepting the ball, I mean, I just like to make plays. Whether I have to tackle somebody, create a forced fumble, PBU - all that fits in the category of being a good defensive player."

Jackson has been outstanding-he's allowing just over 51 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed and has a passer rating against of just 38.9. As if shadow coverage from Jackson wasn't bad enough, Michael Pittman of the Colts hasn't scored since Week 9 and has topped 75 receiving yards just once over that span. New England will no doubt focus on stopping running back Jonathan Taylor Saturday, but if Jackson gets safety help against Pittman it's hard to envision more than WR3 numbers in Week 15.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (Stephon Gilmore vs. Stefon Diggs)

It has been a year of transition for Stephon Gilmore, who went from the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year to falling from favor in New England to traded to the Carolina Panthers in-season. However, while Gilmore's circumstances may have changed quite a bit over the past couple seasons, as Anthony Rizzuti wrote for Panthers Wire, one thing hasn't-the veteran can play.

"The 10th-year cornerback has played like every bit of the lockdown defender he's always been here in 2021," he said. "In fact, his six-game campaign with Carolina has earned him Pro Football Focus' second-highest coverage grade amongst corners over this seven-week span. Gilmore, in addition recording five stops and zero missed tackles, has allowed just six receptions for 35 yards on nine targets. More conventionally, he's tied for the team lead in interceptions (two) and has allowed an NFL passer rating of 34.3 when targeted."

Those aren't exactly numbers that inspire the warm and fuzzies when it comes to the prospects of Buffalo wideout Stefon Diggs in a must-win week. In two meetings with the Patriots last year while Gilmore was still in New England, Diggs caught 15 passes for 237 yards and three touchdowns. But both those games came with Gilmore on the shelf. You have to start Diggs (duh), but there's considerably more uncertainty with him than in most weeks-enough that he's a definite fade in DFS.

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (Terry McLaurin vs. Darius Slay)

The prevailing story this week in the nation's capital is the COVID-19 pandemic ravaging the team. But Washington got some good news this week when Terry McLaurin (concussion) was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday. Still, as Samantha Previte wrote for the Action Network, even if "Scary Terry" does play in Week 15 the scariest part for fantasy managers may be his matchup.

"(McLaurin) exited having caught zero of three targets," Previte said. "He is at risk of missing this game entirely if he does not clear the concussion protocol by Sunday. Even if he plays, I'm not excited to start him given his recent production and the matchup. Since Week 8 against the Broncos, McLaurin is WR58 in half PPR on a per-game basis. He is a risky, low-end WR2 this week against the Eagles, who have been rather stingy against the pass and rank third-best against fantasy wide receivers this year. You probably can't sit McLaurin but you might wish you could."

McLaurin's concussion was a microcosm for his 2021 season-he got clocked coming back for yet another Taylor Heinicke underthrow. If he's active most fantasy managers have little recourse but to start him, but between shaky quarterback play and a matchup with a veteran cornerback in Darius Slay who is playing at a Pro Bowl level again, the odds of a top-20 stat line aren't good.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Amari Cooper vs. James Bradberry)

New York Giants cornerback James Bradberry has had his ups and downs this season. But the 28-year-old has upped his play over the last couple of weeks-improvement that Giants head coach Joe Judge (via Patricia Traina of Giants Country) attributed to good old fashioned hard work.

"James comes to work every day," Judge said. "He comes in there, and maybe we have a plan with the medical team of we have to pull off a guy, next thing, you look out there, and there's 24 in one-on-ones. You kind of tell him, 'Hey James, we can back you down a little bit right here,' and he'll say, 'Nope, they're out here working. I want to get out here, too. I don't want to be the guy standing around watching.' You really appreciate and respect the guy who does that, you respect the way he works."

Bradberry will square off with a familiar face this week in Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper. It's a matchup where Cooper has done OK for himself-he went 3/60/1 on six targets back in Week 5 and also topped double-digit PPR points in the season finale against the Giants a year ago. Cooper's an upside WR2 this week, although the recent slump from Dak Prescott may add even more risk with Cooper than Bradberry's coverage.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (Tee Higgins vs. Patrick Surtain II)

Much was made of the Broncos decision to eschew drafting a quarterback in the first round in 2021 in favor of selecting Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain ninth overall. But Surtain has emerged as a real difference-maker on the back end of the Denver defense, drawing heady praise from Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

"First off, he's physically - I mean he has all the talent you could possibly want," Mahomes said. "He's tall, he's fast, he's big, he's physical and then you can tell his dad was a player. You tell those guys that they're smart, they understand the game, even for a rookie, he has a veteran mindset. He understands what they're trying to do as a defense. He's someone you definitely have to know where he's at every single play and he's getting better and better each and every week."

Surtain and veteran Ronald Darby have combined to form a Broncos secondary that ranks 10th in the league against the pass and has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers this season. Higgins has out-pointed batterymate Ja'Marr Chase over the past month, but it's Chase (and his big-play upside) who has more value this week. Higgins will have his hands full with a corner who can match both his size and speed-he's a mid-range WR3 in Week 15.