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Target and Snap Analysis Week 13 2016
By Jen Ryan
If you are reading this then you have successfully come out of your food (or beer) coma and had a very nice Thanksgiving. I could tell you all about mine but there is no time for that, not with this week being the final week of the fantasy football regular season. Unfortunately some of your stud players such as Terrelle Pryor, DeMarco Murray, Marcus Mariota, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews will not be at your disposal this week. Fortunately, if you were forced to plug in Josh McCown or Gary Barnidge last week then you will not have to deal with that. This is the last chance for many to make the right decisions to get into the playoffs or secure a first-round bye. Always pay attention to the numbers by using the links below:
Targets (including 3 week data): http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootballtargets/fantasy-football-target-stats.cfm
Targets (including red zone data): http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm
- The top ten players in PPR scoring are an even split among running backs and wide receivers.
The Zero RB debate is a hot one and it could be argued that it is a false strategy until you consider these top scoring backs’ preseason ADP. David Johnson (1.05) and Ezekiel Elliott (1.07) were the only first-round picks in September. LeSean McCoy (3.02), DeMarco Murray (5.02), Melvin Gordon (6.07), all give credence to the strategy of kicking off your draft with wide receivers. Not to be overlooked is Michael Thomas who joins fellow rookie Elliott as an elite fantasy scorer.
- Mike Evans and Antonio Brown lead the league in touchdowns with 10. Last year, the magic number was 14, in which Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall, and Doug Baldwin. With five games remaining in the regular season, we could see either Evans, Brown, or both receivers surpass last year’s touchdown leaders.
- The following players are averaging ten targets per game over the past three weeks:
o Julian Edelman – 37 targets, 30.8% 3wk team target share
o Jordy Nelson – 35 targets, 25.9% 3wk team target share
o Antonio Brown – 34 targets, 33% 3wk team target share
o Terrelle Pryor – 31 targets, 27% 3wk team target share
o Travis Kelce – 30 targets, 27.3% 3wk team target share
- Here are the three receivers with the highest team target % in the red zone this season:
Despite dominating the looks in the red zone for their team, the lack of total touchdowns from Marshall and Sanders is glaring. Beckham, for his part, has scored four of those eight touchdowns from within the 20-yard line.
- To further expand on red zone data, here are the scoring leaders from the 10-zone:
o Jordy Nelson – 6 touchdowns (10-zone)
o Mike Evans AND Cameron Brate – 5 touchdowns (10-zone)
o Michael Thomas – 5 touchdowns (10 zone)
o Odell Beckham – 4 touchdowns (10 zone)
- Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard are the only receiving duo in football who are both on the field for at least 95% of their teams’ snaps. Last season, Beckham’s (now former) teammate Rueben Randle played on 89% of the New York Giants’ snaps. There is currently not a set of teammates on the field that much, proving that the Giants have a track record of heavily involving their WR2.
- LeGarrette Blount (12), Ezekiel Elliott (11), and David Johnson (10) are the only running backs with double-digit rushing touchdowns. Blount has yet to score a receiving touchdown, while Elliott has caught one pass for a score. David Johnson, however, has caught three receiving touchdowns, putting him as the running back touchdown leader with 13 total. His 55 receptions for 613 yards on 84 targets also lead all receivers. He has had back-to-back weeks of 11 targets, and is tied with Larry Fitzgerald as the most targeted Cardinal over the past three weeks with 29 targets. The Cardinals, who will be without John Brown again this week, have a home matchup against the Redskins.
- To build upon Arizona analysis, let’s take a look at the teams’ total target distribution over the past three weeks.
The name to pay attention to here is Jermaine Gresham, who has been more involved in the passing game over the past three weeks than Michael Floyd and J.J. Nelson. Gresham has been the biggest benefactor (outside of David Johnson) of John Brown’s ailments, and he is expected to miss this week’s game.
- Currently, the New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions is the only game of Week 13 with a 50+ point total according to the Vegas books (53.5). The Saints have an implied total of 32.25 points. Since the Superdome reopened in 2006, Drew Brees has thrown 41 touchdowns in 86 home games, an average of 2.57 touchdowns and 314.17 yards per game. Elevate all Saints offensive players this weekend, especially receivers. The Lions are the 24th-ranked team against the pass.
The numbers can be a lot to digest sometimes which is why I like to include some visuals to go along with the analysis. Stop me if you have heard this before, but the statistics and graphs I gave you today are the tip of the iceberg in terms of what you can find using the links I provided above to all of our resources. Hit the pavement hard this week, this could be it for some of you. Except of course for those of who play daily fantasy, which if you do not, you may want to try if you are eliminated this week. Good luck!