Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 9 2018

If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
 

Carolina Panthers

Game Over/Under: 55
Team Implied Points: 30.5
Cam Newton $6,600 has quietly been very efficient for the majority of the season, eclipsing 24 DKFP in all but two games and never scoring fewer than 18 DKFP. This week he draws a dream matchup against Tampa Bay that ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass and is giving up the most DKFP per game to opposing signal callers. In addition, they have surrendered 2,330 passing yards (4th most) and 20 passing touchdowns (most in NFL) to the position. Newton should have no trouble picking this defense apart and racking up fantasy points. Aside from getting the job done with his arm (at least two passing touchdowns in all but one game), Newton can also do damage with his legs (at least seven rush attempts in all but one game), increasing his upside. This sets up to be a smash spot for Newton and even though he is pricey, he has to be considered.

Christian McCaffrey $7,800 leads the Panthers with 52 targets (25 percent) and has five red zone targets (21 percent), so his role in the passing game is significant without a doubt. He also has 12 red zone rush attempts (41.4 percent), putting him in a good spot to score touchdowns. The Bucs have not surrendered much rushing yards this season (539), but they have been generous with touchdowns (11) and receiving yards (381) to the running back position. McCaffrey should have no trouble exploiting this weakness on the Bucs defense and taking advantage of it. He is coming off of a 20+ DKFP game, the fourth of the season, and finds himself in a great situation with a favorable game environment. Considering how involved he is in the passing game, pairing him up with Newton makes a lot of sense, as you would essentially get all the scoring from the Carolina offense.

If you read my Flex Targets article, you know I like D.J. Moore $4,300 this week. After seeing just eight targets through his first four games, he has seen a boost in volume recently, with 16 targets in his last three games. Moore is coming off of his best game of his NFL career, catching five passes for 90 yards and rushing for 39 yards last week. The matchup against the Bucs is arguably the best matchup a receiver can ask for. This unit has surrendered 115 receptions (4th most), 1,380 receiving yards (9th most), and 13 receiving touchdowns (most in the NFL) to opposing wide outs, while surrendering the second most DKFP per game. His one-on-one matchup against Brent Grimes, who grades out below average on PFF, is a favorable one, as Moore has a 26 percent advantage rating (top five this week). His price makes it easy to stack him with both Newton and McCaffrey if you want to go in that direction.

Other Options: Both Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen are firmly in play this week considering how favorable of a matchup this is. Funchess struggled last week, but had caught at least four passes in all but one game prior to that last one. He is expected to draw coverage from Carlton Davis, a matchup Funchess has a 12 percent advantage rating in per PFF. As far as Olsen is concerned, it appears the high upside days are behind him and the volume has not been that consistent in the games he has played in this season, but he has now scored in the last two contests and draws the best matchup a tight end can ask for. Both of these guys are secondary options for me.

My favorite option: Newton/McCaffrey/Moore
 

Los Angeles Rams

Game Over/Under: 60
Team Implied Points: 30.5
Jared Goff $6,000 has been far more efficient at home this season than on the road, so being that this game is in New Orleans is a cause for minor concern. That said, the matchup is far too favorable to be overly concerned about his home/road splits this year. The Saints rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the third most DKFP per game to opposing signal callers. They have given up 2,210 passing yards (9th most) and 15 passing touchdowns (tied fifth most) to the position. The Saints have actually been stout against the run this season, and even though Todd Gurley is matchup proof, the Rams could elect to exploit the weaker part of this defense and attack them through the air. This essentially, would create more opportunity for Goff to throw. This offense is filled with talent and Goff is expected to get one of his favorite targets – Cooper Kupp – back this week. The game environment should be great for this offense, which is why I am expecting a big performance out of Goff this week.

Cooper Kupp $6,000 has missed the last two games due to an MCL sprain, but all signs are pointing to a potential return this week. If that ends up being the case, I plan on being overweight on him this week. He draws an excellent one-on-one matchup against P.J. Williams, who grades out very poorly on PFF, and it is a matchup that Kupp has a 42 percent advantage rating in. Not to mention, the Saints are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide outs (50.8), while also yielding 1,516 receiving yards (4th most) and 12 receiving touchdowns (2nd most). Kupp was playing very well prior to suffering the injury, scoring at least one touchdown in each of his last three games. Despite missing two games, still accounts for 17 percent of the target share for the Rams, averaging 6.8 targets per game, and if you take out the game he suffered the injury in, he is averaging eight targets per game. In addition, he is still second on the team with 11 red zone targets (22.4 percent), trailing only Gurley. His
role is solidified, his floor is nice, the upside is there, and the matchup is outstanding. There is plenty to like about him this week, so long as he gives it a go.

Robert Woods $7,000 has underwhelmed us the last couple of weeks, despite being in plus situations, but this week he has another shot at a big game. As I mentioned above, the Saints struggle immensely against opposing receivers and this sets up to be a potential good game environment for the Rams passing game. Woods leads the team in targets with 65, which is good for 26 percent of the target share. His one-on-one coverage against Eli Apple sets up to be a nice one, as Woods has a 36 percent advantage rating according to PFF (third highest of the week). Considering how this game could play out, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for this offense and it would not be surprising to see Woods be part of that scoring.

As I eluded to above, the Saints are really good against the run, allowing just 353 rushing yards (fewest in the league), four rushing touchdowns, and a measly 2.9 YPC. That being said, Todd Gurley $9,500 has shown us that matchup does not matter to him. His usage is so high that he gets it done on a weekly basis. Gurley accounts for 17 percent of the target share for Los Angeles, while also owning a league high 47 rush attempts in the red zone and leading the team with 13 red zone targets (26.5 percent). He has been as consistent as they come, scoring over 25 DKFP in every single game this season. Despite the subpar matchup, this is a positive game environment for Gurley, so including him in your stacks is fine by me.

Other Options: Brandin Cooks can always be considered in a stack with Goff, but for me he is a secondary option this week, assuming Kupp is a full go. He is priced in between both Woods and Kupp, so he could go overlooked in tournaments and does offer upside, making him an appealing GPP only consideration. The game environment also sets up nicely here and if you believe in narratives (I do not), then there is some added incentive, as he once played for the Saints. He has slate breaking upside because of his big play ability, but this week draws the tougher matchup of this receiving group, against Marshon Lattimore who I respect.

My favorite option: Goff/Kupp
 

Additional Notes

Normally I write about three stacks I like, but this week my main focus is on the two stacks above. I do think there are other stacks that can be considered (see below), but I intend to stick with the two above in my core build.

The Saints are in a good spot at home this week vs. the Rams, and I am certainly bullish on some of their pass catchers, such as Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, who I fully intend on having exposure to. My concern with stacking the Saints is the recent dip in pass attempts for Drew Brees over the last three weeks (23, 30, 29). The game environment could certainly change that, but this is what we saw last season when both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were in the backfield. There is nothing wrong with stacking the Saints this week, but I feel better about rostering Kamara and Thomas without Brees, than I do with Brees.

The Chiefs offense is always in play for me, but once again I am prioritizing Kareem Hunt this week instead of the passing game. That said, Patrick Mahomes has been as consistent as they come each week, while also providing a monstrous ceiling. If I decide to go here for a stack, I would be pairing him up with Travis Kelce or Kareem Hunt.

Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen are interesting to me in tournaments as I feel like they will sort of go overlooked. Thielen does draw a nice matchup against Nevin Lawson, who he has a 51 percent advantage rating in, per PFF. This duo can go off any given week and have been one of the more consistent pairings this season.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal