Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 9

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan Jen’s DFS Journal: Week 9
So, I have good news and bad news. The bad news is I did not win a qualifying ticket for the coveted King of the Beach contest in the Bahamas. The good news is it has not broken my spirit and I will be back at it this week. I will burn an entry on that qualifier, as well as the $10 million New York City qualifier, but the majority of my bank roll will be concentrated on head-to-heads this week.

The reason I even started playing daily fantasy football is because of my love of regular, “old” fantasy football. I love the thrill of my redraft leagues as much as daily, and am super competitive when it comes to a one-on-one battle. When I take down an opponent in my redraft leagues I feel a sense of pride and satisfaction. This is no different in daily fantasy, except for the fact that I win money in that single contest. I love to test my prowess against one formidable opponent and that is what I will be doing this weekend. Cash games require a solid, core lineup and that is what I will be aiming for. I will also analyze price changes on DraftKings, which I track each week, to see if there is an edge to be gained.

Here are the players I’ll be looking out to round out my core lineup, as well as a few bonus players I may shuffle around.

QB: Aaron Rodgers ($7,800), Dak Prescott ($6,100)
Rodgers is the top-priced quarterback this weekend, and while no one wants to pay up at the quarterback position we would probably be wise to this week. The Indianapolis Colts 27th-ranked pass defense is very inviting for Rodgers and the Packers 30+ point implied point total. With no real run game we can expect a ton of passing and a handful of touchdowns from Rodgers. Prescott is on the cheaper side compared to Rodgers and while he may be considered the chalk of the week, I may pivot off of him due to him, at times, being a victim of Dallas’ slow game script.

Bonus players: Colin Kaepernick ($5,600), Ryan Tannehill ($5,600) Nick Foles ($5,200)

RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($7,900), Le’Veon Bell ($7,700), Charcandrick West ($4,400)
Elliott and Bell are obvious plays are their position. Elliott’s price tag is the highest we have seen in his young NFL career and he has the upside to flirt with well over 150 yards. The biggest threat to his production would be Prescott rushing for a touchdown or this game being so out of hand that the Cowboys turn to Alfred Morris to close the game out. Bell is discounted by $300 since the last time we saw him and, with Ben Roethlisberger returning, his upside elevates. The jokes are already flying about Chalk-candrick West, but there is legitimacy to his expected high ownership. Andy Reid has historically given his RB1 workhorse opportunities. This tweet is the result of RB-usage by my friend Scott Barrett from Pro Football Focus:

This is precisely the reason why West is the chalk this week. It could be argued that it does not matter much who is carrying the ball because Andy Reid’s RB1 is fantasy gold regardless.

Bonus players: Mark Ingram ($4,800 *1st time below $5K in 2016), Jonathan Stewart ($5,200), Melvin Gordon ($6,300)

WR: Antonio Brown ($8,900), Terrelle Pryor ($6,100), Donte Moncrief ($5,800)
The three names you see above will likely be the core of a few of my lineups. Brown being below $9,000 is the lowest we have seen him this year AND he gets Roethlisberger back this week. He is a no-brainer for me to “pay up” for, even though he is discounted. Pryor finds himself in an excellent position to succeed, as the Dallas Cowboys will be without both Morris Claiborne and Barry Church. Pryor has seen a quarter of the Browns’ targets over the past three weeks and scores 1.01 fantasy points per target. Moncrief returned to action last week after missing five games and played in 89% of the Colts’ snaps. He saw 24% of the teams’ targets (9) and scored. He will be a part of the game with the highest Vegas line of Week 9, as I mentioned while discussing Aaron Rodgers earlier.

Bonus players: Stefon Diggs ($5,900), Devante Adams ($5,900), Demaryius Thomas ($6,000)

TE: Kyle Rudolph ($4,000), Antonio Gates ($3,000)
It is generally assumed that Rudolph will be the highest-owned tight end of this weekend’s slate. There is a weekly theme in targeting the Detriot Lions defense when it comes to tight ends and Rudolph is that guy this week. Gates is someone who, in my opinion, is not being talked about enough and has the floor and opportunity to be, in my opinion, a really intriguing cash game play. Henry Hunter has already been ruled out and Gates was already starting to see an uptick in usage from Philip Rivers. Over the past three weeks he’s been targeted 25 times. He was targeted just 12 times in all games prior. The Chargers could also be without Travis Benjamin this week, which should funnel more looks in Gates’ direction.

Bonus players: Lance Kendricks ($2,500), Travis Kelce ($5,300)
In terms of defense for cash games, I’ll be looking to use the Seattle Seahawks ($3,900) at home against the Buffalo Bills. If I am looking to save a few dollars, the Miami Dolphins ($3,100) become interesting if we want to bank on a few sacks and a pick or two from Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Attacking head-to-heads are not only a great way to gage your process but, if profitable, can be a great way to pad your bank roll after a rough week. The chalk broke across the board in Week 8 and most daily fantasy players had a tough week. I am looking to bounce back this week in those head-to-heads, which I find to be my strongest contests. Good luck, and come play against me on DraftKings: JerseyJen22.