Fantasy Points Allowed Week 5 2017

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan We have hit that quarter mark in fantasy football where we can begin removing some of the weight from 2016 data (for the most part) and work with actionable 2017 data. The four week sample is generally understood as the data benchmark for the new season and it gives us a sense of what teams in 2017 are doing on average. These averages are important in every aspect in fantasy football and begin with the basics of playing the match ups. Our fantasy points allowed tool gives you each meaningful stat related to what and how much defenses have allowed so far this season, as well as the four week average.

Stat Page: Fantasy Points Allowed by Defense

As per usual, below are graphs displaying the defenses allowing the most points per game on average by position, as well as some quick hits on the match ups.

Running Backs

• The return of Doug Martin could either muddy the Tampa Bay backfield waters or provide clarity. I will be hesitant to use Martin this week, however Jacquizz Rodgers has the best matchup he has seen so far this season.

Chris Carson owners suffered a broken heart when he broke his leg last weekend which sent 2017’s waiver wire gem to IR. Coach-speak by Pete Carroll earlier this week tells us Thomas Rawls gets first crack at the majority of the carries, but Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, and Week 4’s breakout player J.D. McKissic make these players avoidable in a soft matchup.

• Continue to stash Matt Breida in case Carlos Hyde’s hip flares up. If Kyle Jyszczyk hits the end zone he will hit value as a super cheap GPP play.

Isaiah Crowell has been a massive disappointment this season. The third round fantasy pick currently sits as the RB47 in PPR leagues. His teammate Duke Johnson, however, sits at RB16. Both of these players can beat up on the New York Jets this weekend, who are allowing an average of 26 points per game to the position, but Johnson is the obvious play here.

Wide Receivers

• Through three games, Devante Parker has at least 4 receptions and 69 yards in each game, while Jarvis Landry is averaging 11 targets per game. The Tennessee Titans are the worst-ranked defense against the pass through four games. I have Parker over Landry this week but both are in smash spots.

• The New England Patriots sport the worst overall defense in football. This is great for New England pass catchers. The more points the defense gives up, the more Tom Brady throws the ball. Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, and Danny Amendola are all in game with a 53.5 Vegas line (that I will be betting the over on). You are playing any Patriot you own this weekend and paying for the guy that is going to score in daily (here’s looking at you, Hogan).

Larry Fitzgerald is seeing a team-high 22.5% of the Arizona Cardinals targets on the season. A healthy John Brown looked fantastic last weekend, but it is worth noting that over the past three weeks it is Jaron Brown who leads the team in market share with 21.5% of the team’s targets.

• Both Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson will be popular names this week against the New England Patriots and rightfully so. With some cheap options on the board at other positions, roll out a Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and DeSean Jackson stack or two.

Andrew Luck is finally practicing this week but Jacoby Brissett has been more than serviceable for fantasy purposes. T.Y. Hilton has an opportunity to pile up yards against the San Francisco 49ers secondary who rank 21st against the pass. Donte Moncrief is nothing more than a spot play.

• The Chicago Bears finally made a quarterback switch and we will see the debut of Mitch Trubisky. It is safe to assume he is at least a minor upgrade over Mike Glennon. Kendall Wright has the best matchup from the slot of the receiving corps this weekend, but I am banking on the rookie to lean on fellow rookie Tarik Cohen with dinks and dunks in this game.

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates or Henry Hunter figures to be a tough decision for many this week but I encourage you to look back to Week 4 for advisement. The New York Giants are so bad against tight ends that there is room for two to have big games.

• I recommended Austin Seferian-Jenkins as a buy two weeks ago in anticipation of him coming off a suspension. Since entering the lineup, he trails only Robby Anderson by just two targets. Josh McCown has a history of connecting with his tight ends, and Seferian-Jenkins is my top beneficiary of McCown’s revenge game this week.

• The tight end tandem of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard find themselves in another juicy match up this week. I previously mentioned all the passing in this game and I suppose this a coin flip, but I prefer Brate’s consistency and track record with Jameis Winston to Howard’s.

Jared Cook owners would normally salivate at this match up but E.J. Manuel starting for the Oakland Raiders obviously changes things. Cook is still an option at the position and is the most targeted Raider over the past three weeks. In at least one daily line up I will go ultra-contrarian and roster Lee Smith who has naturally seen more reps with Manuel than Cook.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars defense only real weakness is against tight ends. Jesse James and Vance McDonald are both in play, but with so many other options this week I’ll be avoiding this duo all together.

Playing the match ups is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football. Knowing the strength and weaknesses of opponents as well as the numbers they allow to skill positions just gives you a leg up on your competition. Our Fantasy Points Allowed tool (link above) provides every meaningful stat you need when considering match ups. Good luck this week, and as always feel free to reach out on Twitter @FFdeJENerate.