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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2020 Week 14
Tom Brady, TB
Brady and the Bucs own a 29-point implied team total and play in one of the three highest-scoring games per Vegas. He's only $6,900 on DraftKings and likely to draw modest ownership because of his recent middling performances and coming off a bye week. This is despite the Bucs passing at a top-five rate and facing a terrible Minnesota secondary.
Patrick Mahomes, KC
Mahones is always an interesting option on slates without screaming values because choosing him means you forfeit one of the expensive running backs or receivers. Many tournament players shy away from that and he ends up as an unpopular play on these kinds of slates. He faces a difficult Miami defense but Vegas has no worries about his ability to beat any defense, giving the Chiefs a 28.5-point implied team total.
Chris Carson, SEA
Seattle is transforming back into their boring, establish the run 2019 form and while that may not be good for Russell Wilson's odds of cooking, it should be a positive indicator for Carson. In his second back from a foot injury, Carson earned 86.7% of the backfield carries versus the Giants last week. He was also targeted six times. In a cake-walk matchup versus the Jets this week, Carson should be able to run wild.
Aaron Jones, GB
The Packers own the highest implied team total at 31.5 points this week. Getting away from them in any lineup is going to be difficult but Davante Adams is also reaching a peak Bitcoin level price at $9,300. If you don't have the budget to get to him, Jones is the way to go. Amid concerns that his workload was being taken away by Jamaal Williams, he out-touched 18-7 last week.
Sammy Watkins, KC
Watkins will always be too cheap given his status as the clear No. 2 wide receiver for Mahomes. In his two games back from injury, Watkins has 13 targets. He's run a route on 74% of Mahomes' dropbacks.
Antonio Brown, TB
Since Week 9, when he joined the team, Brown has an 18% target share and a 22% air yards share. That gives him a WOPR (a weighted metric of both market share numbers) identical to Chris Godwin. He's cheaper than Godwin and going to be less popular. Mike Evans is the No. 1 Bucs receiver but they have no clear-cut No. 2. Take advantage of ownership no recognizing that by playing Brown.
Mike Gesicki, MIA
Geiscki is the ideal run-back in a Mahomes stack. He correlates well if the game turns into a back-and-forth affair and he fills a position that features two good performances every week. Gesicki was one of those last week with 88 yards and a touchdown. He saw 11 targets and the Miami offense finally started moving once he got involved.
Dallas Goedert, PHI
There's no denying that Goedert is the No. 1 receiver for the Eagles anymore. Since Week 10, Goedert leads the Eagles with 29 targets. Jalen Reagor is second with 20 targets. The shift to Jalen Hurts may spark this offense and improve the ceiling of Goedert while his floor remains among the best in the league. He's viable in all formats.
The Cowboys get to face either Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley. That's all you need to know. Both players have at least a 3% interception rate and double-digit sack rate in their respective careers. Dallas gets the easiest matchup of the week by a wide margin.