DFS Gut Plays week 15 2017

By JJ Buck
JJ Buck If you're reading this, you are amid a whirlwind of fantasy opinion and statistic overload. With this article we are looking at matchups that standout after a quick look over of the schedule and prices; going with your gut. Sometimes the obvious play is the best and sometimes it burns us. Here we'll look at Draft Kings (DK) and Yahoo Sports (YS). As always, be sure to know the scoring settings; DK is PPR scoring opposed to .5 PPR for Yahoo.


Dak Prescott - Dallas - (DK $6,400 - YS $33)

The Sunday night game features two teams chasing that little flicker of light at the end of the hope tunnel. The Cowboys travel to Oakland in a game that sets up nicely for Dak and company. Oakland gave up 408 yards of total offense last week in their loss at Kansas City. Taking advantage of sub-par defenses the last two weeks, Prescott has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions and dropped 322 yards on the Giants. I expect low ownership and a good fantasy return. (DAL -3, O/U 46)

Nick Foles - Philadelphia - (DK $5.500 - YS $27)

Are the Eagles still a Super Bowl contender without Carson Wentz? For now Foles is good enough to keep the regular season ship afloat. We have seen him excel in plus matchups and he has the talent around him this weekend to do just that. Philly travels to New York and gets a floundering Giants squad that was lit up by Dak last week. I don't expect Doug Pederson to lean on the pass as much, but Foles can easily exceed value executing a balanced game plan on Sunday. (PHI -7.5, O/U 40)

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman -Atlanta - (DK $6,200 - YS $31)

I'll be leaning on Freeman on Yahoo this weekend as the Falcons travel to Tampa Bay on Monday night. As of Friday morning, Tevin Coleman was still in the concussion protocol. Freeman handled 24 carries last Thursday and scored his first touchdown since October first. If Coleman is out it's easily another 20-plus carry day against an average Bucs' defense. (ATL -6, O/U 49)

Kenyan Drake - Miami - (DK $5,800 - YS $21)

The only thing I'll trust to continue is Drake's roll and performance for the Dolphins. Jay Cutler played one of the best games of his life beating New England. Miami is at Buffalo Sunday and the less Cutler the better. While many flamed the decision to move Jay Ajayi, Adam Gase has leaned on Drake and he has stepped up; 23-120 and 25-114 the last two weeks. Add in eight receptions and all the work he can handle, Drake goes from the bottom to the top. (BUF -3, O/U 39)

Giovani Bernard - Cincinnati - (DK $5,300 - YS $14)

It's a bad matchup, at Minnesota, and is going to be an ugly day for the Bengals offense. I'll be completely off Gio if Joe Mixon is fully cleared. If not, he's someone who no one will own and make up for it in PPR scoring. Bernard grabbed six passes for 68 yards last week with Mixon out. Andy Dalton's safety valve could push 10 receptions if it is his backfield alone. (MIN -10.5, O/U 42)

Alex Collins - Baltimore - (DK $5,000 - YS $26)

This is just a friendly reminder that Collins is just $5,000 on Draft Kings. Some might overt think the Cleveland defense, as they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing this season. Let your eyes win you over. Collins has been running through and around tackles. He hasn't had single-digit carries since week five and is averaging 17 carries a game over the last four weeks and will be looking to score for the fifth straight week.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans - Tampa Bay - (DK $6,800 - YS $22)

The price drop has my attention on Yahoo. I am a sucker for cheap talent. Evans has been lost since Jameis Winston returned two weeks ago. Four receptions for 55 yards will keep everyone away. The risk is I'll be eating the "L" on Tuesday, but the upside of a plus Monday night fantasy matchup has me taking another shot on this messy offense. (ATL -6, O/U 49)

Jordy Nelson - Green Bay - (DK $6,300 - YS $25)

Aaron Rodgers said this week, "I know there's a lot of juice left in [No.] 87…"I'd like to fill that up this week."
And that's all that we need to know about Nelson and the Packers this week at Carolina. (CAR -3, O/U 47)

Rishard Matthews - Tennessee - (DK $5,300 - YS $21)

A trip to San Francisco sets up Matthews for one of his blowup weeks. That means a few receptions capped off by a long touchdown. The 49ers are giving up the ninth most rushing yards pre-game. This wouldn't seem like a good spot for Matthews, but the Titans run game should open up one-on-one chances when Marcus Mariota takes his shots down field. (SF -1.5, O/U 45)

DeDe Westbrook - Jacksonville - (DK $4,000 - YS $13)

Blake Bortles at home hassled to positive performances for his receivers. He is completing 63-percent of his passes with a 12-to-five TD-to-INT ratio at home opposed to completing 55-percent of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions on the road. Westbrook already has three games of 10 or more points and he has only played four career games. (JAX -11, O/U 38)

DK Reception Filler - Larry Fitzgerald ($6,900), Marquise Goodwin ($6,000)
YS Touchdown Maker - Dez Bryant ($22)

Tight Ends

Evan Engram - New York Giants - (DK $5,600 - YS $20)

Rob Gronkowski and Zac Ertz are worth the price and roster spot this weekend as the top two options on the Sunday slate. If you want something different, Engram is Eli's only plus target this weekend and will be forced feed all the looks he can handle when they realize you can't just run every play. Fingers crossed in PPR scoring, different, and just to be different. (PHI -7.5, O/U 40.5)

O.J. Howard - Tampa Bay - (DK $2,800 - YS $11)

We go back to the messy Bucs' offense to try and find some value. Cameron Brate caught two passes for two touchdowns in Winston's return, but only has a total of three receptions the last two weeks. Howard is coming off a 4-54-1 game and would be my punt play at TE is the value is needed in a pinch. (ATL -6, O/U 49)

Yahoo Cup Review

103.94 points scored Week 114; 3,554th place out of 389,534 entries.
QB - Andy Dalton - (8.64) - My choice was as good as my health last weekend.
RB - Theo Riddick - (24.30) - Easy call last week when A.A. was ruled out.
RB - Rex Burkhead - (13.80) - Believe in the red zone role.
WR - A.J. Green - (6.90) - Stack gone wrong.
WR - Josh Gordon - (14.40) - Wild story, even better athlete to dominate after the time away.
WR - Michael Crabtree - (11.50) - Salvaged an average day late.
TE - Cameron Brate - (1.60) - Yep, I did this.
Flex - Melvin Gordon - (14.80) - Solid but not spectacular for the price.
DEF - Colts - (8.00) - Knew points would not be scored in that snow storm.

Odds from VegasInsider.com