Vegas vs Fantasy Week 10 2018

It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines, paint a picture as to what to expect in different situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

The Bengals and Saints game is expected to be high scoring this week, as they have the highest over/under of the slate and 72 percent of the bets are on the over. New Orleans is favored by five points and have an implied team total of 29.5 points, while the Bengals have an implied team total of 24.5. The Saints are receiving 73 percent of the bets against the spread. Something is standing out to me here. Although 72 percent of the bets are on the over, the over/under went down a point, which tells me that sharp money is on the under in this one, and that is something that has to be noted and kept in mind. That being said, this is still a game that has plenty of fantasy appealing plays. From the Saints side, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram are all in play. In DFS, I am not too excited about Brees because I think that the Saints will focus on the run in this one, making both running backs very strong options. On the Bengals side, Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd are two player I am keen on this week. They have a great matchup and the game environment is a favorable one. Joe Mixon is also in play, but I am not considering him a core piece of my DFS builds. That said, fire him up in season-long formats. John Ross is healthy and expected to play this game. He should see an increased role with A.J. Green out, and makes for an interesting flier this week. None of the defenses can be trusted in this spot.

The Bucs and Redskins game has the second highest over/under on the slate. At this time, the bets on the over/under are split evenly at 50 percent. Washington has a 24 point implied team total and Tampa Bay has a 27 point implied team total, the Bucs are receiving 53 percent of the bets against the spread and are favored by three points. This is one of those games I feel like I should have more interest in, but if I was betting this one, I would bet the over. I do like a couple of players from this contest, but will be underweight on most players for the exception of Jordan Reed, who I am very excited about this week. He has been disappointing thus far this season, but this is one of those matchups that is tough to ignore, as the Bucs are awful defensively, especially against opposing tight ends. Reed will likely go overlooked in DFS this weekend and is someone I plan on targeting in tournaments. Aside from him, there is not much I like from the Redskins. You can take a flier on Maurice Harris who received 12 targets last week and the Redskins are beat up at the receiver position. From the Bucs side, you can always make an argument for Ryan Fitzpatrick, as he slings it often. That said, in DFS I am likely not going to have much exposure, but in season-long leagues, I have him in my top 10. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson, and O.J. Howard are all in play, but none are priorities in DFS for me this week. Neither defense is a must, but I do respect the Redskins and think they can get some turnovers here.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

Two very bad teams will face each other this weekend. The Bills head to New York to take on their AFC East rivals, the Jets. This game has the lowest over/under on the slate and 55 percent of the bets are on the under. The Bills have a 14.75 implied team total, while the Jets have a 21.75 implied team total. New York is favored by seven points and they are receiving 61 percent of the bets against the spread. This is going to be very simple, fade this game in DFS as it is likely not going to produce much from a fantasy standpoint. Both defenses are viable options, and the Jets can be considered a strong play, especially if Nathan Peterman is the starter.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

The Chiefs host the Cardinals this week and are heavy favorites. This game has a 49.5 point over/under and most of the scoring is expected to come from the Chiefs with their 33 implied team total. Arizona has a 16.5 implied team total and even though they are getting 16.5 points, Kansas City is still receiving 68 percent of the bets against the spread. Fantasy owners can deploy all Chiefs players as usual. My favorite play on this offense this week is Kareem Hunt. Not only is this a favorable game script for him, but the Cardinals have really struggled against the run all season, making this a smash spot. From the Cardinals side, Josh Rosen and his pass catchers are interesting as they should be chasing points in this one and the Chiefs have struggled defensively this season. Christian Kirk, Larrry Fitzgerald, and even David Johnson are in consideration this week. None are core plays or primary targets, however. Neither defense is one I will be targeting.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.


If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal