Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 4 2018
If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
New York Giants
Game Over/Under: 50.5
Team Implied Points: 23.5
Eli Manning $5,600 draws a phenomenal matchup against the Saints who rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. Through three games, they have allowed 1,037 passing yards and a league high 10 passing touchdowns, to go along with 34.6 DKFP per game. Manning is off to a subpar start to the season, however, he has improved in each game and finds himself in a smash spot. He comes with built in risk, but at this price, there is plenty of upside and this is arguably the best matchup he can have. I find myself starting my rosters with Manning and one of his pass catchers and I am ok with it.
Odell Beckham $8,700 continues to be the go-to guy for Manning as he has accounted for 31 percent of the target share, as well as 30 percent of the red zone targets. This one-on-one matchup for Beckham is not an appealing one as he faces off against Marshon Lattimore who is a very good corner, but Beckham has had success against tough defenders in the past, so this is not something I am too concerned about. He is a high volume receiver with tons of upside, in what should be a favorable game script for him. Despite not scoring a touchdown this season, Beckham has topped 20 DKFP twice, while eclipsing 100 receiving yards in two games. Mike Evans had a lot of success in this matchup in Week 1, so I would not be surprised to see Beckham get it done against the Saints. He will likely go overlooked considering how much ownership Sterling Shepard will garner.
Sterling Shepard $4,900 is coming off of best game of the season, catching 6-of-7 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, scoring 20 DKFP. This week he faces off against the Saints who have allowed the most receiving yards, most touchdowns, and are also yielding the most DKFP per game to wide outs. Evan Engram will miss this game as he nurses an MCL sprain, so Shepard should see an increased workload this week in what appears to be a favorable matchup on paper. So far this season, Shepard has received 23 targets which is good for 17 percent of the target share, while also accounting for 30 percent of the red zone targets. The one on one matchup against P.J. Williams is one that he should exploit, as Williams ranks well below average on PFF and Shepard has a 21 percent advantage rating against him. This price is just too good to be ignored, especially in this matchup. There are plenty of things to like about Shepard this week, so do not overthink it, and plug him in.
Other Options: Saquon Barkley’s involvement in this pass game makes him a viable option as well, but the Saints have done a decent job limiting the damage against running backs in both the run and the pass game. That said, Barkley is an elite back that can be productive against any defense. If you want a unique Giants stack, he might be the way to go.
My favorite option: Manning/Shepard
New Orleans Saints
Game Over/Under: 50.5
Team Implied Points: 27
With the Saints defense struggling, they have been relying a lot on Drew Brees’ $6,600 arm. He has attempted at least 35 passes in each game this year, with two 45+ pass attempt games. This is a favorable matchup as the Giants rank 24th in DVOA against the pass. I would normally prefer Brees at home, in the dome, but this is a matchup that he can find success in. The Giants allowed DeShaun Watson to throw for 385 yards last week. Brees has topped 350 passing yards in two of his first three games, while throwing for three touchdowns in those contests and tossing multiple touchdowns in every game this season. So long as this defense continues to struggle, he will have to throw, making him an appealing option.
Michael Thomas $9,100 has been targeted 40 times this season, accounting for 31 percent of the target share in New Orleans. He has caught 38 of those targets for 398 yards and three touchdowns. He is currently averaging 33.3 DKFP per game, scoring no less than 25.9 DKFP in a single game this season. This is a favorable matchup against Janoris Jenkins who ranks below average on PFF, a matchup that Thomas has a 49 percent advantage rating in, which is tied for the highest this week. In addition to his role in the passing game, Thomas also accounts for 29 percent of the red zone targets, increasing his touchdown equity. This is a strong situation for Thomas and his jacked up price may keep people off of him, making him a very interesting stack option with Brees.
I will continue to roster Alvin Kamara $9,600 in the foreseeable future. I mean, if you fade him, it is tough to watch football on Sunday without sweating. This kid is the real deal, and one of the best backs I have seen in quite some time. He is an elite pass catcher and can run really well between the tackles. So far this season, he is averaging 47 rushing yards, 96.3 receiving yards, 10 receptions, and 33.7 DKFP per game. He has been peppered with 38 targets, which is good for 29 percent of the team’s target share. In addition to that, he accounts for 38.7 percent of the red zone targets and 68.2 percent of the red zone rush attempts, so he has a huge role in the red zone. The Giants rank 23rd in DVOA against the run and have allowed 19 receptions for 165 yards and three receiving touchdowns to opposing backs this season. This is a matchup I expect Kamara to come out a winner in, making him a core play for me whether I have Brees in my lineup of not, but he makes for a strong stacking option with Brees.
The Giants really struggled against tight ends last season and although they have done a solid job against the position this season, I still think Ben Watson $3,300 is intriguing. For starters, this defense has not really faced an imposing tight end, in fact, Watson may be the best tight end they have faced. In addition, Watson’s targets are trending in the right direction as he saw six targets last week, after seeing five in Week 2, and four in Week 1. I expect him to continue to have a solid role in this offense and potentially smash in favorable matchups like the one at hand. If you are doing a full on game stack (I like the idea of it), Watson can be included at a cheap price and potentially low ownership.
Other Options: Ted Ginn can be considered in this spot also, after all, he has scored in two of the first three games this season and accounts for 14 percent of the target share. He also has big play upside and get score a long touchdown against anyone. That said, he is a secondary option for me, because there are other receivers I like much more in this price range.
My favorite option: Brees/Kamara
Game Over/Under: 46.5
Team Implied Points: 24.75
Mitchell Trubisky $5,200 has been pretty bad this season, throwing no more than 220 yards in a single game this season and tossing just two touchdown passes. That said, he draws a very good matchup this week against a Bucs defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass. Tampa Bay has allowed 1,126 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns to opposing signal callers, while yielding 27.4 DKFP per game. This is a defense that funnels to the pass, since they have a solid front seven and a respectable run defense. I would only consider Trubisky in tournaments, because he does come with a low floor, but if there is a game he can reach his ceiling, it is this one.
I am really hoping Allen Robinson $5,900 goes overlooked this week because I love this price and the matchup. He did not play all that well last week, but he continues to be Trubisky’s go-to receiver, as he accounts for 27 percent of the target share. He draws a phenomenal matchup against the Bucs who are yielding the second most DKFP per game to opposing receivers, while allowing the most receptions, fourth most receiving yards, and five receiving touchdowns to the position. His one-on-one matchup against Brent Grimes is one that favors him as he has a 20 percent advantage rating, per PFF. This appears like a perfect bounce back spot for Robinson and at this price there is lots to like. Even if you do not feel comfortable with Trubisky, you should be considering Robinson this week.
Other Options – You can consider Trey Burton in this spot as well, but considering some of the other tight ends in this price range that I have interest in, I might be underweight here. The talent is certainly there and he is averaging five targets per game, which is a solid amount. No Anthony Miller this week, is also something that favors Burton, so he can be considered a stacking option if you have interest in the Bears.
My Favorite Option: Trubisky/Robinson
The Bengals and Falcons game is one that I really like, and one that I think will generate a lot of attention, and rightfully so. This is a great opportunity for a game stack and both offenses offer great value, as well as some quality plays. Do not overlook this game and make sure to get some exposure to it.
The Houston Texans almost made the cut here as I really like this offense this week. They face off against the Colts who have been better than I expected defensively, but not a defense I would be avoiding by any means. DeShaun Watson and his primary pass catchers, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are enticing options this week and make for viable stacks. They should have no trouble finding success here and could be a low-owned high-upside stack that is in a winning lineup of a tournament.
Baker Mayfield will start this week for the Browns in a solid matchup against an Oakland Raiders defense that has been below average on all counts. There is certainly risk with the rookie quarterback here, but there is also plenty of upside. If you feel frisky enough to lock him into your lineups, pairing him up with Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, or Antonio Callaway is the way to go. That said, the Raiders also struggle immensely against the run, so it could be a day where Carlos Hyde shines.
Ryan Tannehill has looked solid this season, scoring at least 18 DKFP in two of his first three games. This week he faces a Patriots defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass. I typically try to stay away from playing a naked quarterback, but this is a situation I would really consider it. Miami spreads the ball a ton and Tannehill does damage with his legs.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal