Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 3 2018
If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
Game Over/Under: 53
Team Implied Points: 28
Matt Ryan $5,700 is coming off of a big game against the Panthers where he found the end zone four times. He completed 23-of-28 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while also adding two rushing touchdowns. This week he draws a very nice matchup at home against the Saints who have allowed 663 passing yards and five passing touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season. Ryan has posted some nice performances against this defense in recent years, tossing multiple touchdown passes in four of their last six meetings and throwing for at least 295 passing yards three times during that stretch. I do not expect Ryan to run for two touchdowns this week, but I do expect him to have to throw the ball a bit more than he did last week as this should be a shootout. Aside from the favorable matchup, this price is just too low.
Despite how poor the Saints defense has looked, Julio Jones $7,900 still draws a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore who is rated as one of the better corners in the league by PFF. That said, Jones still has a 27 percent advantage rating against Lattimore. Last season, Jones fared well in this matchup, combining for 12 catches and 247 receiving yards in their two meetings, so this is certainly a spot that he could exploit. Through the first two weeks of this season, Jones has been peppered with 28 targets, accounting for 41 percent of the target share for the Falcons, as well as 23.1 percent of the red zone targets. This duo should be connecting often on Sunday in a potential high scoring contest.
Austin Hooper $2,900 has started out the season playing well. He has been peppered with five targets in each of his first two games and has also become a red zone threat as he is tied with Julio Jones for most red zone targets in Atlanta with three. Hooper has played in 87 percent of the offensive snaps this season and accounts for 13 percent of the targets share (second highest in Atlanta). He has become a reliable option for Ryan and should continue to be involved in this offense. This is a favorable matchup for him, as PFF has Hooper with a four percent advantage rating. It is tough to pass up on a tight end at this price in a situation like the one Hooper is in this week.
Other Options: Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley have appeal because of the potential game script this contest could have, but it is difficult deciphering between the two when it comes to expected volume. Tevin Coleman could also be considered, but he is more of a secondary option in a Falcons stack for me.
My favorite option: Ryan/Jones
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Over/Under: 56
Team Implied Points: 31.25
Patrick Mahomes $7,000 has started off this season throwing for 582 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first two games. The insane part about this is that he has only attempted 55 passes, so the volume is not all that high. This week he should continue to roll against a 49ers defense that has allowed 591 passing yards and five passing touchdowns this season. So far this season, they are ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass. Regression is inevitable for Mahomes, but this may not be the week that it happens as the matchup is one that he should take advantage of. The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate, so this offense should produce plenty of fantasy goodness.
After the explosive season opener, Tyreek Hill $8,500 followed it up with five receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, scoring 20 DKFP. Hill continues to be one of Mahomes favorite targets as he has now been peppered with 14 targets in the first two games, accounting for 26 percent of the Chiefs target share. Hill offers tremendous upside and has been consistent so far this season. The 49ers are currently allowing the ninth most DKFP per game, having surrendered 415 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs this season. The one-on-one matchup against K'Waun Williams is one that favors Hill, as he has a 24 percent advantage rating per PFF. It is tough to cough up $15,500 on two players and feel great about it, but there is no doubt that combined these two can score 100 DKFP which would be huge. And no, that is not what I am projecting them for.
Travis Kelce $6,700 got off to a slow start in Week 1, but caught 7-of-10 targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns last week. He now leads the Chiefs offense with 16 targets, accounting for 30 percent of their target share, as well as red zone targets with four, which is good for 36.4 percent of the team’s red zone targets. This is a favorable matchup for Kelce as the 49ers have surrendered two touchdowns to tight ends this season and did allow eight touchdowns last season to the position, which was tied for fourth most in the league. In addition, Kelce has a 13 percent advantage rating in this contest, which is the sixth highest of any tight end this week. He and Mahomes should pick this defense apart.
Other Options: Sammy Watkins is an interesting tournament flier in a Chiefs stack because of his upside. That said, he comes with a lot of uncertainty and is volatile. However, he is still in play if you are looking for a different way to stack this team up. Kareem Hunt caught a touchdown pass last week and could possibly become more involved in the passing game than we have seen in the first two weeks. However, that remains to be seen, so it is tough to feel confident about including him in the stack.
My favorite option: Mahomes/Kelce
San Francisco 49ers
Game Over/Under: 56
Team Implied Points: 24.75
Jimmy Garoppolo $6,500 is off to a rocky start to the season, but a matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the league could fix that. The Chiefs currently rank dead last in DVOA against the pass and are yielding the most DKFP per game (37.5). In addition, they have surrendered 876 passing yards (most in the league) and six passing touchdowns (second most in the league). Eric Berry remains sidelined and has not been able to practice, but even if he returns, this matchup bodes well for Garoppolo. This game has the highest over/under and the 49ers are expected to be chasing points here, so I am fully expecting Garoppolo to throw the ball a ton this weekend.
Garoppolo spread the ball more last game, but George Kittle $4,500 still tied for the most targets on the team, accounting for 16 percent of the target shares last week. Through the first two games, he leads the team with 13 targets, which is good for 22 percent of the target share. This is a favorable matchup for Kittle who faces a Chiefs defense that has surrendered 201 receiving yards and one touchdown to opposing tight ends this season, while allowing 21.6 DKFP per game. Granted, most of that was allowed in last week’s game, but in their first matchup of the season against the Chargers, there was no tight end to be concerned about. I fully expect Kittle to take advantage of this matchup this week and be very busy in a game that the 49ers should be passing a ton.
Other Options - Marquise Goodwin missed last week with a quad injury, but if he plays, he makes for a very interesting stacking option for Garoppolo at a reasonable price. Keep an eye on his injury throughout the week as it could make a big difference in your options to stack this team. If Goodwin misses, Pierre Garcon and Dante Pettis should see an increased workload and the game script could favor them, but the target distribution for them is difficult to predict. Last week with Goodwin out, Garcon played in 75 percent of the offensive snaps and received four targets, while Pettis played in 88 percent of the offensive snaps and received two targets. Garcon does appear to have the better one-on-one matchup of the group against Orlando Scandrick who grades out well below averaged on PFF.
My Favorite Option: Garoppolo/Kittle
Every week I write about my three favorite stacks, but a close fourth and one that almost made my top three for the week is the Saints. The trio of Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara is one that I really like this weekend. Considering the matchup, Brees to Kamara is probably the way I would go, but even going with all three makes sense. I like the idea of just doing a game stack here and having a lot of exposure to both offenses.
Carson Wentz is set to return this weekend and he makes for an interesting high-risk/high-reward option to stack with Nelson Agholor. This is a favorable matchup against a below average Colts defense. Reports suggest that Wentz will be a full go, so there should be no restrictions here, however, I am still not confident that will be the case. Not to mention, he has to shake off some rust. That said, if I am running enough lineups, I would considering sprinkling in an Eagles stack.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal