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Targets Snaps and Scoring Week 4 2018
By Jen Ryan
Now that we have three weeks in the books, we are getting closer to the point where we can largely do away with 2017 and use the sample size of 2018 as actionable data. It takes about four weeks to get reliable data and that is what we are coming up upon. At FootballDiehards.com, we like to look at recent numbers throughout the season. On all of our stats pages, whether it be targets, red and 10 zone targets, snaps, or fantasy points allowed, we look at season-data and include past three week data.
Sorting through the numbers in an attempt to look ahead at what they mean for the upcoming work is the challenge we face week in and week out. This is why each week, I put together one massive Excel file with all of our pertinent data. I throw in some Vegas data and daily fantasy salaries, scoring, and hit rates.
Putting it all together and pouring over the numbers, there are always takeaways to be had. Here are a few observations made through the first three weeks of the season, and what those takeaways may mean this week.
- 13 players currently average ten targets per game. Of those 13, one is a running back (Alvin Kamara) and one is a tight end (Zach Ertz).
- Four of those 13 have not scored a touchdown this season. Those players are:
o Julio Jones
o Odell Beckham
o Jarvis Landry
o Zach Ertz
- Jarvis Landry (35.2%) and Julio Jones (33.7%) lead the league in team target share.
- Odell Beckham, who is expected to see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore this weekend, is +500 to score two touchdowns this Sunday. In 50 career games he has scored multiple touchdowns in ten of them, a rate of 20%.
- Among all players with at least ten receptions, three have over a 90% completion rate:
o Austin Ekeler – 11 targets, 11 receptions = 100%
o Jordan Howard – 10 targets, 9 receptions = 91%
o Michael Thomas – 40 targets, 38 receptions = 95%
- What Michael Thomas is doing is simply ridiculous. Efficiency is an understatement. He will have the opportunity to continue to blow our minds this weekend against the New York Giants in a game where the Saints have a 26.75 implied point total.
- Alvin Kamara (12) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (10) are the only players with double-digit red zone targets. Each have one red zone touchdown. The third-highest red zone targets belong to Michael Thomas, who has three red zone touchdowns on nine red zone targets. Those three red zone touchdowns actually game from within ten yards out, where he has a 100% completion rate.
- MICHAEL THOMAS IS RIDICULOUS.
- Christian McCaffrey’s snap rate:
o Week 1 – 85%
o Week 2 – 94%
o Week 3 – 100%
- McCaffrey has more receiving yards than:
o Michael Crabtree
o Jimmy Graham
o Corey Davis
o Nelson Agoholor
o Demaryius Thomas
o Amari Cooper
- He has yet to score a touchdown in 2018.
- Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz are the only tight ends who accounts for at least a quarter of their teams’ targets, both with a 27.7% team target share.
- Jared Cook (20.4% target share), Jesse James (7.9% target share), and Will Dissly (14.1% target share) are the top three scoring tight ends in PPR formats.
- Rob Gronkowski (TE6) is the only tight end to have played 100% of his team’s snaps in two of three games this season. Only one other tight end notched a 100% snap rate, Jonnu Smith in Week 2.
Using our pages, you can toy around with the numbers and find those things that make catch your eye. Those things should factor into your lineup decisions in both season-long and daily. Remember, opportunity is key in this game and opportunity starts with targets. Good luck this week!