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Target and Snap Analysis Week 12 2016
By Jen Ryan
This is it, two more weeks of the fantasy football regular season. I won’t share my spilled tears with you quite yet, but time is running out. We have two more weeks in our season-long leagues and for the daily fantasy crowd out there just five more weeks until “scrub week” in Week 17. As the weeks roll on, the importance of paying attention to the numbers increases. As you know by now, there are specific numbers I analyze each week, and the links for those are below.
Targets (including 3 week data): https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootballtargets/fantasy-football-target-stats.cfm
Targets (including red zone data): https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm
Snaps: https://www.footballdiehards.com/nfl-snap-counts.cfm
Let’s kick things off with a chart!
- Below is a chart of all players who are on the field for a minimum of 50% of their teams’ snaps who score 2 or more fantasy points per opportunity:
This chart is loaded with value, as Julio Jones is the only first-round draft pick. Tight ends are an obvious trend, but check out those slot guys, too. The opposite end of this spectrum is the hugely disappointing Todd Gurley. Of all players who have played on at least half their teams’ snaps, Gurley’s 0.57 points per opportunity (total touches for running backs) is a league-low.
- There are only four players with double-digit 10-zone targets (10). Here are their red zone statistics:
o Jordy Nelson – 7 rec, 6 TDs, 29% team 10-zone targets
o Allen Robinson – 5 rec, 4 TDs, 42% team 10-zone targets
o Emmanuel Sanders – 5 rec, 2 TDs, 37% team 10-zone targets
o Larry Fitzgerald – 4 rec, 3 TDs, 42% team 10-zone targets
The next closest player in 10-zone targets is Tyrell Williams, who’s eight 10-zone targets have translated to five receptions for a score. He sees 31% of the Chargers’ 10-zone targets.
- Six players are averaging ten targets per game over the past three weeks. Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Allen Robinson should come as no surprise. Jordan Matthews, however, is the sixth player on this list and since seeing 14 targets in Week 8, he has seen double-digit targets in every game since. Prior to that, he had not seen more than nine targets since Week 1. Using our Ease of Schedule tool (https://www.footballdiehards.com/eosforecast.cfm) you can see that the Matthews does not have a difficult matchup until the fantasy Super Bowl in Week 16 against the New York Giants.
- We now have seven players in the 200-point club (PPR scoring):
It should be universally accepted that Melvin Gordon has proven to be the biggest value pick in fantasy football this season. As of September 7, 2016 Gordon was the 67th overall pick as the RB23. He is currently the RB4 in PPR scoring, has 11 total touchdowns, and has one game with less than 17 points.
- Of the top 15 wide receivers in PPR scoring there are two sets of teammates. Michael Thomas (WR13) and Brandin Cooks (WR10) of the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers’ Jordy Nelson (WR7) and Davante Adams (WR11) are those sets of teammates. Michael Crabtree is currently the WR16, but with A.J. Green done for the foreseeable future, we could see three sets of teammates by this time next week with him and Amari Cooper (WR8).
- Despite being buried on one of the league’s bigger offensive juggernauts, Rishard Matthews has done a lot with his limited opportunities. On the season, he has turned 45 receptions in 483 and scored six touchdowns off of 19% of the teams’ targets. He leads the Titans touchdown percentage, scoring on 9.1% of those targets. Over the past three weeks, his 27% target share leads the team. Hopefully you already bought Matthews, but keep an eye out for him next week. The Titans will be on the bye and desperate owners may be forced to drop him.
The weeks are slipping away as I type this so make sure you jump into the pages I linked above and spend some time pouring over the numbers. Analysis is critical in making informed decisions and the reality is we all have very limited informed decisions left. Make them count. Good luck this week, and Happy Thanksgiving!