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Free Agency Stock Market Corner Part 2: Running Backs 2018
By Alex McCarthy
NFL running backs tend to both develop more quickly and have a shorter shelf life than wide receivers, so the offseason free agency market tends to be correspondingly less robust (as teams often feel they can get game-ready RBs on cheap rookie deals). That said, there are a few RBs on the market this offseason who have flashed enough talent to be intriguing, as well as a potentially available superstud in LeVeon Bell. Without further ado, the following are the seven free agent RBs who I believe could see dramatic shifts in value based on offseason movement. They are listed in descending order of value according to my personal opinion (assuming 0.5 PPR scoring).
Speculation: Technically speaking, LeVeon is a restricted free agent who could potentially part ways with the team he has built his career with over the offseason. However, this seems increasingly unlikely as time passes- Bell had been adamant and consistent about wanting a big payday, and it seemed for awhile as though it may cause problems, but the Steelers of late have been freeing up cap space. This probably means that Bell is about to become the highest-paid RB in league history (and rightly so), although there are no guarantees in football and stranger things have happened than seeing #26 in a different jersey next year.
Buy if: You can get him for rookie pick #1 or cheaper.
Sell if: You think he will leave the Steelers, or if you can get rookie picks #1 and #8 or better.
Hold if: You think he will stay with the Steelers.
Speculation: While his injury history could make some teams shy on Hyde, he is still young enough that he has a few years of prime play remaining and a 1250+ yard RB is an asset that nearly any team can use. He will be a major part of the 49ers offseason considerations, and if they choose to keep him he will be a part of an offense that automatically gains a lot of touchdown upside with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm (not to mention that defenses won’t be able to stack the box nearly as much). Even if Hyde does depart for elsewhere, no team would invest the sort of capital he would require unless they wanted to utilize him heavily.
Buy if: You think he will stay with the 49ers and benefit from the improved offense, or if you can get rookie pick #9 or better.
Sell if: You think he is injury-prone and will drop off a cliff next time he makes a bad cut, or if you can get rookie pick #6 or better.
Hold if: You think he will stay with the 49ers and benefit from the improved offense (and remain healthy).
Speculation: While his 2017 stats are certainly gaudy, his inability to produce prior to joining the Patriots is of concern both to myself and likely to many NFL teams. With Brady forcing defenses to defend the pass and the wizardry of Belichick allowing versatile backs to flourish, Lewis was essentially in a perfect situation in New England. Given the Pats’ propensity for dumping players who are due for a payday (and the difficulty of making real money at the RB position), it seems likely that Lewis could be wearing a new jersey come next season. While his versatility is to be lauded, I would be hesitant to invest in Lewis unless he goes to a team with a particularly high-powered offense and a creative offensive coordinator.
Buy if: You think the Patriots will eschew tradition and commit to Lewis long-term in a role similar to that which he had last year, or if you can get him for rookie pick #14 or cheaper.
Sell if: You think he will succumb to the curse of the Patriots’ RB and fail to replicate his stats on another team, or if you can get rookie pick #11 or better.
Hold if: You think the Patriots will eschew tradition and commit to Lewis long-term in a role similar to that which he had last year.
Speculation: Crowell enters free agency this offseason and signs point to the Browns looking elsewhere for RBs in the future. They already have Duke Johnson and are well positioned in the draft to take any number of hyper-talented RBs, most likely generational prospect Saquon Barkley. This leaves Crowell out in the cold, obviously, and in particular trouble as it is cheaper for RB-needy teams to fill those needs through a particularly deep 2018 draft. A 4.1 YPC last year (despite the relatively low yardage) could have teams knocking on his door, and the right fit could see a return to his 2016 form, but in my opinion I find it unlikely. His YPC has always been inflated by long TD runs in garbage time, and consequently I feel that his talent is overblown. Crowell will never be an RB1, but with a little luck he could be an RB2 on the right team (although I wouldn’t count on it).
Buy if: You think a team will sign him as their bellcow back, or if you can get him for rookie pick #14 or cheaper.
Sell if: You don’t think he’ll get an opportunity at an RB1 job, or if you can get rookie pick #11 or better for him.
Hold if: You think a team will sign him as their bellcow back.
Speculation: Speaking of Dalvin Cook- he is, by all appearances, a true franchise running back. McKinnon’s talent notwithstanding, it seems unlikely that they will keep him around simply to operate as a backup, and this means that he is extremely likely to end up on a new team next year. Unlike some other free agent RBs, his prowess in the pass-catching game should net him a considerable number of suitors who can find ways to incorporate him into an offense. McKinnon demonstrated in 2017 that he is a weapon, and someone will find a way to use him as such. His potential value range is massive, as he is could fit into one niche or other on most offenses, so acquiring him is a risk but one that could pay off huge dividends (and even so, the worst case scenario I can envision is that he becomes an RB3).
Buy if: You can get him for rookie pick #17 or cheaper, or if you think a team will give him a shot at something like a bellcow role.
Sell if: You can get rookie pick #14 or better.
Hold if: You think a team will give him a shot at something like a bellcow role.
Speculation: The glaring worry with Burkhead is obvious- his only season of fantasy-relevant production was as a running back for the Patriots. I’m not saying that it completely invalidates his achievements, but New England have demonstrated repeatedly that they could probably devise a productive running scheme for the Meryl Streep.
Buy if: You think he will become the heir apparent to Dion Lewis if he leaves in free agency, or if you can get rookie pick #24 or better.
Sell if: You think he will go to any other team, or if you can get rookie pick #27 or better.
Hold if: You think he will become the heir apparent to Dion Lewis if he leaves in free agency.
Speculation: Rawls has demonstrated that there is talent there somewhere, but his utter inability to pass block combined with a litany of injuries and the potential of an old lady gypsy-curse have me avoiding him at any cost other than free. If you have an empty roster spot, need a flier, and he is on the wire it might be worth considering, but remember- gypsy curse.
Buy if: He is on the waiver wire, you have extra roster spots, and you need RB fliers.
Sell if: Someone will give you a rookie pick of any flavor for him.
Hold if: You’re related to Thomas Rawls, or if you’re that old lady he stole from and you want to watch him continue to fail.
Le'veon Bell (26)
History: What to say about LeVeon Bell… if he’s not the overall RB1 every year it’s only because he’s been smoking too much weed (unfortunately, he does love the weed). While his running style is unorthodox to say the least, he’s been using it to make opponents look foolish for years and seems to be well on his way to Canton doing so. Over his five-year career he has averaged over 5 receptions, 133 all-purpose yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game (which translates to 20 fantasy points in a PPR format). Anything I could add to that would pale in comparison to the numbers, so I’ll let them speak for themselves.Speculation: Technically speaking, LeVeon is a restricted free agent who could potentially part ways with the team he has built his career with over the offseason. However, this seems increasingly unlikely as time passes- Bell had been adamant and consistent about wanting a big payday, and it seemed for awhile as though it may cause problems, but the Steelers of late have been freeing up cap space. This probably means that Bell is about to become the highest-paid RB in league history (and rightly so), although there are no guarantees in football and stranger things have happened than seeing #26 in a different jersey next year.
Buy if: You can get him for rookie pick #1 or cheaper.
Sell if: You think he will leave the Steelers, or if you can get rookie picks #1 and #8 or better.
Hold if: You think he will stay with the Steelers.
Carlos Hyde (27)
History: Like so many NFL running backs, Carlos Hyde has demonstrated the ability to be a mid-RB1 talent but has been haunted by durability issues. He was buried on the depth chart his rookie year, but entered 2015 as the starter and played exceptionally well for several weeks before injuring his ankle in week six and placed on IR in week eight. Owners were hyped for Hyde entering the 2016 season and at first he did not disappoint, putting up over 1,100 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns in thirteen games he started before, again, being placed on IR. In 2017 he played his first full season and put up a career-high 1,290 yards from scrimmage along with eight touchdowns and was named a Pro-Bowl alternate,Speculation: While his injury history could make some teams shy on Hyde, he is still young enough that he has a few years of prime play remaining and a 1250+ yard RB is an asset that nearly any team can use. He will be a major part of the 49ers offseason considerations, and if they choose to keep him he will be a part of an offense that automatically gains a lot of touchdown upside with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm (not to mention that defenses won’t be able to stack the box nearly as much). Even if Hyde does depart for elsewhere, no team would invest the sort of capital he would require unless they wanted to utilize him heavily.
Buy if: You think he will stay with the 49ers and benefit from the improved offense, or if you can get rookie pick #9 or better.
Sell if: You think he is injury-prone and will drop off a cliff next time he makes a bad cut, or if you can get rookie pick #6 or better.
Hold if: You think he will stay with the 49ers and benefit from the improved offense (and remain healthy).
Dion Lewis (27)
History: Dion Lewis is an extreme rarity (perhaps one of a kind) in that he is a running back who didn’t break out until his seventh season in the league. His first two years in Philadelphia were lackluster, his next season in Cleveland was lost to injury, and he was released by the Colts the following year before ever playing a down. As he is wont to do, Bill Belichick then scooped him up for free and made him part of a highly effective RB committee in 2015 and 2016. In 2017 he defied the odds and seized the lead role, putting up 1,110 all-purpose yards along with nine touchdowns and a particularly impressive 5.0 yards-per-carry.Speculation: While his 2017 stats are certainly gaudy, his inability to produce prior to joining the Patriots is of concern both to myself and likely to many NFL teams. With Brady forcing defenses to defend the pass and the wizardry of Belichick allowing versatile backs to flourish, Lewis was essentially in a perfect situation in New England. Given the Pats’ propensity for dumping players who are due for a payday (and the difficulty of making real money at the RB position), it seems likely that Lewis could be wearing a new jersey come next season. While his versatility is to be lauded, I would be hesitant to invest in Lewis unless he goes to a team with a particularly high-powered offense and a creative offensive coordinator.
Buy if: You think the Patriots will eschew tradition and commit to Lewis long-term in a role similar to that which he had last year, or if you can get him for rookie pick #14 or cheaper.
Sell if: You think he will succumb to the curse of the Patriots’ RB and fail to replicate his stats on another team, or if you can get rookie pick #11 or better.
Hold if: You think the Patriots will eschew tradition and commit to Lewis long-term in a role similar to that which he had last year.
Isaiah Crowell (25)
strong>History: After an impressive 2016 season with over 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs, Isaiah Crowell was one of the most discussed running backs entering 2017. The Browns offensive line had seen some serious upgrades and an impressive YPC stat of 4.8 appeared to bode well for the young RB. However, in true Browns fashion, 2017 brought only sadness and disappointment as Crowell barely cracked 1,000 all-purpose yards and scored only two touchdowns, ceding much of the work to his more versatile backfield-mate Duke Johnson.Speculation: Crowell enters free agency this offseason and signs point to the Browns looking elsewhere for RBs in the future. They already have Duke Johnson and are well positioned in the draft to take any number of hyper-talented RBs, most likely generational prospect Saquon Barkley. This leaves Crowell out in the cold, obviously, and in particular trouble as it is cheaper for RB-needy teams to fill those needs through a particularly deep 2018 draft. A 4.1 YPC last year (despite the relatively low yardage) could have teams knocking on his door, and the right fit could see a return to his 2016 form, but in my opinion I find it unlikely. His YPC has always been inflated by long TD runs in garbage time, and consequently I feel that his talent is overblown. Crowell will never be an RB1, but with a little luck he could be an RB2 on the right team (although I wouldn’t count on it).
Buy if: You think a team will sign him as their bellcow back, or if you can get him for rookie pick #14 or cheaper.
Sell if: You don’t think he’ll get an opportunity at an RB1 job, or if you can get rookie pick #11 or better for him.
Hold if: You think a team will sign him as their bellcow back.
Jerick McKinnon (26)
History: First and foremost, McKinnon is an absolute physical freak. His SPARQ-x score (an approximation of athletic ability that encompasses speed, size, strength, and agility) is the highest ever recorded (155.7), so it’s hard to analyze him objectively without ogling over the oozing physical potential. That raw ability has yet to manifest in the form of high production, but recent signs have pointed to McKinnon becoming a more complete back (and consequently, more capable of taking on a lead back role). He put on ten pounds of muscle before the 2017 season to better handle the punishment of the NFL game, and more importantly he has taken his receiving game to another level. In a league where versatile, pass-catching running backs are quickly becoming the norm, Pro Football Focus rated McKinnon as the sixth-best receiving back (and twelfth-best back overall) in the NFL at the end of the regular season. He also fell only nine yards shy of breaking a thousand all-purpose, and that’s despite rarely seeing the ball during the first four weeks when Dalvin Cook was healthy.Speculation: Speaking of Dalvin Cook- he is, by all appearances, a true franchise running back. McKinnon’s talent notwithstanding, it seems unlikely that they will keep him around simply to operate as a backup, and this means that he is extremely likely to end up on a new team next year. Unlike some other free agent RBs, his prowess in the pass-catching game should net him a considerable number of suitors who can find ways to incorporate him into an offense. McKinnon demonstrated in 2017 that he is a weapon, and someone will find a way to use him as such. His potential value range is massive, as he is could fit into one niche or other on most offenses, so acquiring him is a risk but one that could pay off huge dividends (and even so, the worst case scenario I can envision is that he becomes an RB3).
Buy if: You can get him for rookie pick #17 or cheaper, or if you think a team will give him a shot at something like a bellcow role.
Sell if: You can get rookie pick #14 or better.
Hold if: You think a team will give him a shot at something like a bellcow role.
Rex Burkhead (28)
History: An extremely versatile player, Burkhead has started games for various teams at both wide receiver and running back. After doing essentially nothing for the first three years of his career, he had a decent season as a change-of-pace back for the Bengals in 2016 (489 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns). The following year he joined the legion of cheaters and unwanted running backs when he joined the New England Patriots. Despite receiving fewer carries than Dion Lewis, he still had a productive season and cracked 500 all-purpose yards for the first time as well as putting up eight touchdowns.Speculation: The glaring worry with Burkhead is obvious- his only season of fantasy-relevant production was as a running back for the Patriots. I’m not saying that it completely invalidates his achievements, but New England have demonstrated repeatedly that they could probably devise a productive running scheme for the Meryl Streep.
Buy if: You think he will become the heir apparent to Dion Lewis if he leaves in free agency, or if you can get rookie pick #24 or better.
Sell if: You think he will go to any other team, or if you can get rookie pick #27 or better.
Hold if: You think he will become the heir apparent to Dion Lewis if he leaves in free agency.
Thomas Rawls (25)
History: After going undrafted in 2015, Rawls set the world on the fire after taking over for an injured Marshawn Lynch. In his third career start he had over 250 total yards and combined for two touchdowns, and his streak of dominance would continue with several hundred-yard games. The hype train revved up as he became the de facto heir apparent to Marshawn, and his value was skyrocketing until his season was forced to a premature end by a mid-December ankle injury. Since then he has struggled not only with injuries but with pass-blocking, and has been usurped as the starter by Chris Carson (and even when Carson subsequently got hurt, Rawls did not resume the starter role). PLUS, one time he stole an old lady’s purse at a casino so I suspect he’s not the kind of guy who’s got any good karma coming his way.Speculation: Rawls has demonstrated that there is talent there somewhere, but his utter inability to pass block combined with a litany of injuries and the potential of an old lady gypsy-curse have me avoiding him at any cost other than free. If you have an empty roster spot, need a flier, and he is on the wire it might be worth considering, but remember- gypsy curse.
Buy if: He is on the waiver wire, you have extra roster spots, and you need RB fliers.
Sell if: Someone will give you a rookie pick of any flavor for him.
Hold if: You’re related to Thomas Rawls, or if you’re that old lady he stole from and you want to watch him continue to fail.