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crystal ball week 8 2016

By Evan Tarracciano

During my weekly appearance with Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey on the Football Diehards “7 and 7” segment, I was asked to create a team name that describes the 2016 Fantasy Football season so far. I had plenty of options come to my mind right away, such as “Why did I take a chance on Adrian Peterson” or “I hate getting outbid in FAAB”, but I finally decided upon “Flavor of the Week”. As players we tend to focus on the here and now – which players can immediately provide the most direct benefit, and how to acquire them before other owners take notice. Hot-name waiver wire additions are all the rage, and I’ve had my fair share of players to write about this week. Below I’ve included my thoughts on several of them – I hope you stand to benefit from getting them on your teams!
If you haven’t already joined me for my video Q/A sessions each Tuesday evening at 8 PM EST, I’d highly encourage you to do so! I’ve received a lot of positive feedback as to my thoughts and the layout – hopefully listeners are enjoying it as much as I am running it! This article serves as a supplementary piece to what I covered in this week’s chat, expanding on some of the more “hot button” topics that I received a lot of traffic on. Check out all of my prior videos and meet me for each new one here:

https://www.facebook.com/FootballDieHards/

Q: Now that Ty Montgomery has running back eligibility in my league, where does he rank at that spot for the remainder of the season?
A: Several providers have now added running back eligibility to Montgomery, which obviously provides him with a fantastic amount of flexibility for owners. To be frank, I don’t ever see Montgomery as a player who will see more than 10-12 rushing attempts in a given week, largely in part due to his skillset. Montgomery is more of a third-down and scat back type player than a ground-and-pound option, making him more akin to James Starks than Eddie Lacy. Starks is expected to miss at least another three weeks as he recovers from knee surgery, making Montgomery a strong FLEX/RB2 play in PPR formats. I don’t think that he carries that value the entire duration of the season however, especially with Knile Davis and Don Jackson able to take away early-down work while healthy. For the short term he makes for a nice play, but after Week 11 or so things could get rather dicey quickly.

Q: Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi, Jay Ajayi….
A: Sigh. The vast majority of all questions that I received on Twitter surrounded the profound emergence of Ajayi, who has managed to rush for 418 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past two weeks. To be fair, his accomplishments are admirable, and he deserves his fair share of accolades. A few weeks ago he wasn’t even traveling with the Dolphins on trips, let alone being considered as a RB1 candidate. Working in Ajayi’s favor is the sudden retirement news of Arian Foster, and a lack of solid depth behind him. Additionally, Ajayi proven that he can handle a heavy workload, and has a solid skillset of power and speed. On the negative, his schedule after this bye week is rather difficult, as he faces:

Week 9 – New York Jets (2nd fewest rushing yards allowed per game in the league)
Week 10 – San Diego Chargers (8th)
Week 11 – Los Angeles Rams (15th)
Week 13 – Baltimore Ravens (4th)
Week 14 – Arizona Cardinals (13th)
Week 15 – New York Jets (2nd)

That isn’t exactly a cakewalk. I’m confident that he will receive enough touches to provide strong RB2 value, but not much more than that. His value will never be higher than it is currently, so if you can ship him off for something of value, do so immediately.

Q: It sounds like Jeremy Langford is coming back next week for the Chicago Bears, is he worth an add? Which Bears RB is the one to own ROS?
A: If you are in a deeper format and own Jordan Howard and want to handcuff him with Langford, be my guest. I still believe that Howard is the best back for the team for the remainder of 2016, even with Ka’Deem Carey stealing away a few carries the past few weeks. Langford needs an injury to become relevant again.

Q: Assuming C.J. Anderson misses some time, just how much money should I spend in FAAB to acquire Devontae Booker?
A: If Anderson misses any time I would vault Booker immediately into the mid-range RB1 conversation. He’s well worth spending 45-50% of your total FAAB on if the knee injury to Anderson is serious.

Q: What are some of your favorite TV shows to watch?
A: Honestly, I don’t watch a ton of TV other than sports. My wife and I will binge watch episodes of “The Blacklist” whenever we can though. Big fan of Netflix for that!

Q: Which is the second-best WR in Green Bay – Randall Cobb or Devantae Adams?
A: I prefer Cobb of the two options – proven track record, much better hands than Adams. Owners tend to forget that Cobb (when healthy) is a locked-in WR2 in PPR formats. Excluding 2013 when he only played in six games, over his past three seasons he’s averaged 83 receptions for 1,023 yards and 8 touchdowns. With Lacy being hurt this team becomes even more reliant upon the passing game. I’ll take my chances with the proven veteran over Adams, who has only flashed occasionally.

Waiver-Wire choices

Quarterback:

Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) – Look, I’ll be the first to admit that Alex Smith isn’t a particularly exciting name on this column. The ho-hum nature of his actual name typically mimics his play on the field – a game-management chain mover capable of having a few big games smattered throughout the course of the season. The next two weeks are particularly good from a matchup perspective, as he faces the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. This is still a run-first team that will rely heavily upon Spencer Ware to carry them to victory, but don’t be surprised to see Smith put up back-to-back performances of throwing multiple touchdowns and breaking the 250 yard passing mark. With several noteworthy signalcallers on bye the next two weeks, owners could do worse than to boost their projected statistical floor.

Josh McCown (Cleveland Browns) – The Browns have been an absolute dumpster fire from the quarterback position this season, as they have now had six players take snaps in just seven games. All things considered, McCown offers the highest ceiling and is the truest actual “quarterback” of the bunch. Before you roll your eyes at the nomination, consider that McCown will still have Terrelle Pryor as a target, and Corey Coleman has a chance of suiting up this week against the New York Jets. The team’s woeful defense will still force them to pass early and often, which will generate plenty of garbage-time statistics. I know that I’m in the minority, but I’m intrigued.

Running Back:

Robert Kelley (Washington Redskins) – While Matt Jones nurses a knee injury and learns how to finally hold onto a football, there is a strong possibility that Kelley starts this week for the Redskins against the Cincinnati Bengals. Although the Bengals have been historically a strong defense, they currently rank 24th against the run, averaging over 115 yards per game. Chris Thompson would still be involved in third downs if Jones sat, but Kelley would have a strong chance of a rushing touchdown, especially considering that he’s averaged over six yards per carry in limited action.

Alfred Blue (Houston Texans) – If you peruse through my Twitter timeline, you’ll notice quickly that I’ve never been a big fan of Blue. He’s averaged barely over 3.4 yards per carry since 2014, and those statistics come from sample sizes large enough to warrant attention. In spite of that, there is a chance that Lamar Miller sits this upcoming week against the Detroit Lions, which is a cushy matchup to be sure. Blue has also looked better on tape this season, and performed well against the Denver Broncos in spot-action this past Monday evening. This pickup completely hinges upon the health of Miller though, so keep an eye on the practice reports out of Houston to see his status.

Wide Receiver:

Torrey Smith (San Francisco 49ers) – Smith makes this column for a fairly obvious reason – he has nowhere to go but up. Rumors are abound that the team is looking to deal him prior to the trade deadline, and the Philadelphia Eagles (among other teams) have been linked to his name. Simply put? Moving ANYWHERE would be better for his value than being stuck in San Francisco. If a team opts to trade for him, expect his usage to dramatically increase. He’s still a better fit in standard formats rather than PPR because of the routes which he runs (his career high is receptions is 65) but he is averaging less than two catches per WEEK for the 49ers. His talent is still there; a team just needs to recognize that and react accordingly.

Marqise Lee (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Quick question – who do you think leads the Jacksonville Jaguars in receptions. It has to be Allen Robinson, right? No? What do you mean no, he’s an All-Pro receiver? Oh, he has a major case of the drops so far this season. Check. Well then it has to be Allen Hurns, right? NO?? Is it T.J. Yeldon? Julius Thomas? Nope, it’s Lee. Lee is also second on the team in receiving yards (just eight behind Hurns), and that is without him seeing more than eight targets in any given week. The Jaguars are a terrible team led by a struggling sophomore quarterback. Yet in spite of that, Lee ranks inside the top 50 of the position in PPR formats. On a short week the Jaguars face the Tennessee Titans, who currently rank 18th in passing yards allowed with over 250 per game. He’s an interesting FLEX play for owners who are facing bye week issues.

Tight End:

Ladarius Green (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Consider Green more of a stash than plug-and-play option, especially with the Steelers on a bye this week. Green was ranked by many experts (myself included) as a top 7-8 option heading into the preseason, prior to being placed on the IR due to his ankle injury. So why the optimism? Green finally returned to practice on Tuesday and came out of it stating that he had no limitations. Don’t be surprised to see him make his season debut when the team returns to action against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. He still possesses a rare combination of size and speed which I’m willing to gamble on.