Analyzing MFL10 WR in 2016

By Tod Burros
Tod Burros Analyzing MFL10 WR in 2016 The next position to study in my analytics of big weeks in MFL10’s takes us to the WR position. I studied the results for the top 64 WR broken out by points per game in the format. As I did for RB’s I have calculated the percentage of times each of these WR hit key thresholds.

I will also be covering some key points after the chart which are:
1-Key findings the chart has shown both about the WR position in general and how they compare as a group to RB
2-Which players results were in line with general perception of them as receivers
3- Which player’s results were NOT in line with general perception of them as receivers

There is also a very handy and important column where I have added the Players current ADP so you can compare to his 2016 PPG ranking to his current ADP to make it easier to shop for over-valued and under-valued assets

Analyzing MFL10 WR in 2016

Key Takeaways

• Unlike RB no WR scored ten points in the 90-100% range and overall as I think you would expect historically from the position there is more consistency among RB’s who get good workloads than at WR
A.J. Green was on pace for a monster season and was the only WR to have over 30% of his games be over 30 points
• Team mates often have different profiles and those profiles should be considered when you draft those players. Meaning some have more consistent 10 point outings and another WR might have more big games
• The assumption is you can get really good best ball WR late in MFL10’s however as you look at the chart those players rarely score 20 points in a game. IN fact only 10 of the last 32 WR had a 20 point week and only Brandon Lafell had two.
• Only 5 of the top 32 players were regularly picked after round 12 last year. And only Marvin Jones had a 30 point week and didn’t finish in the top 30
• ADP for the most part is very efficient and often follows closely how a player finished the year before in Points per game

They are who we thought they were

What is interesting is most of the players who are who we thought they were the consistent types. The big home run guys for the most part did not fit into this group at least in 2016. In fact most of the WR who had huge games were what we consider STUD receivers who give you both upside AND consistency

Antonio Brown-Stud
Odell Beckham-Stud
Julio Jones-Stud
A.J. Green-Stud
Jordy Nelson-Although not considered on the same level as the studs for 2016 his profile here looks eerily similar to the studs. If he stays healthy he is being drafted 6-7 picks after the other Studs
Mike Evans-Evans is rightly being drafted with the other Studs despite still having some questions about his game.
T.Y. Hilton- A little less consistent than the studs but gives you upside like the studs.
Larry Fitzgerald- Consistent
Amari Cooper-Consistent with only 1 big week
Julian Edelman-consistent without big upside
Jarvis Landry-same as Edelman
Michael Crabtree- 73/60 percent on the top two levels. Still in the third year being drafted twice as late as his finish. This also isn’t that surprising.
Jordan Matthews-Lower value consistency
Marvin Jones-He came to Cincy with a reputation for having big upside and inconsistency. Injuries hurt his upside but after a strong start he was inconsistent the rest of the year.
Cole Beasley-Gave you 10 points 60% of the time and either was drafted late or undrafted and still has an ADP 24 picks after his PPG finish

Surprising Findings

Brandon Cooks- Not only did he give you some big weeks as expected but put up a Stud like 80% weeks with 10 points. What separated him from the top players was that he was much less consistent at 15 points than the Studs. But gave the 10 point consistency and the big weeks of the top WR
Willie Snead- Only 53% of the time scored 10 points which was surprising to me.
Mike Wallace- Most of the talk I hear about Wallace still profiles him as a boom or bust candidate but in his first year with Joe Flacco he put up a very solid 67% of weeks of 10 points. In fact what was missing were the huge weeks. This info confirms to me he is a strong bargain at current ADP
Desean Jackson- While only scoring 10 points 50% of the time is what we might expect from him he really didn’t show the top end upside games you would expect as he only had two 20 point games and his highest game of the year was 21.8. I think with his age and injury history I think it is fair to wonder if he still has those huge games in him anymore. He goes to a perfect situation however for us to find out. But this info makes me think his ADP and why he is being drafted there might be a bit off.
Kenny Stills-Another game breaker reputation. The good news? He shocked with 60% of his games with 10 points or more which I didn’t expect
Once you get to the bottom 24 WR on this list they only average 43% of having 10 point weeks. For comparison the average Defense gets 10 points 34% of the time last year. This was surprising to me

Hopefully this chart and the thoughts with it help you all the more in doing your MFL10’s. I am in many of them. If you see me in an MFL10 or on Twitter @TodfromPa please say hello. If you follow me I will follow back. Also I do the Run to Daylight Podcast where I interview top industry experts and discuss all things football.