The Shadow Knows Week 12 2018

By Gary Davenport
Gary Davenport
THE SHADOW KNOWS: Week 12

We're getting down to the nitty-gritty.

That's a technical term for the fantasy stretch run—I think. Don't judge me. I'm writing this on Thanksgiving—I'm all hopped up on tryptophan and giblets.

For the record, giblets are gross.

Anyway, with the fantasy playoffs just around the corner, more than a few fantasy owners find themselves in a must-win situation—the next loss will effectively end their season.

My season ended before Halloween. What a turd of a year this was. Given my aggregate record in leagues in 2018, you should probably invert everything I say. Consider it a form of anti-advice.

Am I rambling? It feels like I'm rambling. Speaking of rambling, I want pie.

OK—focus, Gary.

What's this article about again? Giblets?

I ate so much. Why did I eat that much? Why do I keep eating? Why did God punish me by making me eat so many cheesy potatoes that I forgot to pull Tre'Quan Smith only to watch 11 guys I've never heard of catch touchdowns for the Saints Thursday night?

Why hast thou forsaken me, Cheesy God?

Yep. I'm rambling.

What the hell is this thing about again?

Oh yeah, that's right. The biggest matchups between receivers and cornerbacks in Week 12.

As always, the higher the panic level, the more you should feel like you actually ate some of Aunt Louise's mystery stuffing.

Why is it gray?

And why did I eat that too?

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Denzel Ward vs. AJ Green)

Green hasn't played since hurting his toe back in Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but based on what head coach Marvin Lewis told Paul Dehner of the Cincinnati Enquirer, it looks like he may be back out there when the Bengals host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. "He's ready to get back to work," Lewis said earlier this week. If he feels good enough to go and we judge him good enough by our eyes, he'll be good to go."

When healthy, Ward's been solid as a rookie—he's a top-20 cornerback per the folks at Pro Football Focus and has allowed a passer rating against of less than 75. However, he's also given up some big days and four touchdown catches. This call all boils down to whether you think Green's actually healthy or if the Bengals are blowing some smoke in the hopes that Green can pull some coverage away from Tyler Boyd.

Panic Level: 2 (I'm an optimist, but I can't say I'm not at all worried he'll hobble his way to a 2/21 line)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Janoris Jenkins vs. Alshon Jeffery)

As Rotowire pointed out, Jeffery has a ton of momentum right now. The problem is that it's in the wrong direction. "In his first four games after returning from a shoulder injury," they said, "Jeffery averaged six catches on 10 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown per game. In his three games since, he's averaging four catches on six targets for 39 yards per game and no scores. Something is going on in Philly as the Eagles try to find their identity amid an array of offseason coaching departures and in-season injuries."

Here's the kicker. The gut check. The stat that will have Jeffery owners consulting everything from this article to a freaking Magic-8-Ball. One of those big games he had before this dry spell was in New York—eight catches for 74 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If only the two teams' respective situations were the same as that week. The Giants actually have a pulse right now. The Eagles? CLEAR!

Panic Level: 4 (Philly's last home win was September 23. Seriously.)

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (Patrick Peterson vs. Keenan Allen)

Allen opened the season with a whole lotta yardage and very few touchdowns—one over LA's first eight games. However, as Yahoo Sports pointed out, he's picked up the pace of late. "It seemed that Keenan Allen was earning a bit of a reputation this season," they said. "He could haul in the targets and pile on the yardage like few other receivers. Yet, he couldn’t score. Well, that’s changed the last two weeks, as Allen has reached pay dirt twice after not scoring in eight straight games."

The lack of touchdowns was about the only thing regarding Allen that fantasy owners could find fault with in 2018. He's averaged 8.7 targets, 6.2 targets and 77.6 yards per game this season. Patrick Peterson presents a stiff challenge for Allen, but I'd be more worried about the Chargers building a big lead and going run-heavy late. Luckily, the Chargers don't build big leads, so it's all good.

Panic Level: 2 (Arizona's 23rd in fantasy points allowed to WR, or I'd make it a 1.)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Antonio Brown vs. Chris Harris)

The last time Harris and Brown squared off (2015), Brown went off to the tune of 16 catches for 189 yards and two scores. Harris told Arnie Stapleton of the Associated Press that he's itching for payback. “I didn’t have a good game that night,” Harris said. “It was tough that game. It was pretty much on me that game. We didn’t have anybody in our secondary that game. I think all my safeties were gone. I think I was out there with (Josh) Bush and (Shiloh) Keo, so that was a hard game. It won’t be anything like that again.”

That game doesn't reflect the quality or cornerback Harris is—he may be the best cornerback in the NFL who never gets mentioned as one of the best corners in the league. There's one active player in the NFL with multiple interceptions in each of the last seven years—his name rhymes with Chris Harris. With that said though, it's Antonio Brown—I feel silly every time I write about him here.

Panic Level: 1 (Again, it's Antonio Brown—pass the gravy)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Davante Adams vs. Xavier Rhodes)

Per Tim Van Vooren of Fox 6 TV, Adams allowed the obvious—the Packers' collective backs are against the wall. “At this point, I mean, I’m not making slogans or anything like that, but it’s pretty much run the table, part two at this point. I mean, we gotta win these games. Got a big one next Sunday night, so yeah, all we can do is focus on the next game and try to win that one,” said Adams.

There's little doubt that Adams will draw Minnesota's best corner in this one—both teams need this win badly, and with all due respect to Eric Valdes-Idontcare, there's all of one pass-catcher for the Packers that opposing defensive coordinators care about. With that said, there's also all of one receiver in Green Bay right now that Rodgers has any confidence it—the targets are GOING to be there.

Panic Level: 1 (Adams went 8/64/1 back in Week 2 against the Vikings)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (Malcolm Butler vs. DeAndre Hopkins)

As Jim Wyatt wrote last month for the Titans website, Butler would be the first to admit that he hasn't played up to his contract in 2018. “I think sometimes my problem is trying to get the ball, you gamble and do things you shouldn’t. I just need to get back to the basics,” he said. “I need to get back to my doggish ways. I’m going to get back to being real nasty, man. I’m going to play my game and do more to help my team out. I am just going to be me.”

To be fair, Butler played well two weeks ago in Tennessee's stunning beatdown of the Patriots. The problem is that he followed that up with a performance against the Indianapolis in which he was burned so many times he may still be smoking. Butler gets to follow that up by trying to cover a guy who regularly gets his even when he's bracketed with a safety.

Panic Level: 1 (There is truly much to be thankful for this week)