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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2020 Week 13
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota
The Vikings have a 30.5 implied team total leads the main slate and Dalvin Cook is going to be the most popular running back on the slate. Instead of paying an egregious price for him, why not target the passing attack in Minnesota instead? Cousins is second in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.7) and is top-10 in adjusted yards per attempt (8.5) and Quarterback Rating (104.5).
Derek Carr, Las Vegas
Carr crushed his fantasy backers last week and as the fourth-most owned quarterback in the Milly Maker, there were a lot of them. Despite the miserable outing, he is still top-10 in adjusted yards per attempt (8.2) and Quarterback Rating (104.9). This week, he gets a matchup that should be impossible to fail against: the New York Jets. The Jets are allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks and only the Cowboys have given up more passing scores.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay
Jones is simply going to be one of the least popular elite backs despite being a 9-point favorite at home. He disappointed last week with less than 10 DraftKings points in a primetime game versus the Bears but the peripherals were still there for him. He split carries evenly with Jamaal Williams but the Packers routed the Bears. When the game was within 20 points, Jones out-carried Williams 14-7. Of Williams 17 carries, 59% came in the second half.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Chubb is typically a back to target as a home-favorite, not a road-dog. The matchup versus Tennessee may be worth flipping that trend. The Titans are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this year and Chubb has been dominant since returning from IR. He has topped 100 yards in all three games and his floor has been 19 carries.
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
Anytime Allen is not going to be the chalkiest receiver of the week, he deserves some serious consideration. That appears to be the case this week with running back being the popular position to pay up for. With Herbert under center, Allen is averaging 11.4 targets for 8.1 receptions and 83.8 yards per game. He has scored in seven of ten games with Herbert. This all includes a game that he played less than a quarter before exiting with back spasms. Allen has simply turned into Michael Thomas.
Denzel Mims, NY Jets
If playing Carr, Mims is the obvious run-back option from the Jets. Since joining the team five games ago, Mims has a 42% air yards share and a 27% target share. He is seventh in total air yards since Week 7. Mims is taking over as the No. 1 receiver in New York and is still priced like a distant No. 2 receiver.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota
If Irv Smith is out again this week, Rudolph is the perfect stacking option with Cousins. Tight end is abysmal this week with all of the premier tight ends outside of our next tournament pick off the main slate. When the choices are all bad, look to correlate your tight end with another part of your lineups instead of blindly throwing darts. Rudolph was targeted eight times last week.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas
Waller is the only desirable tight end on this slate and he is the best stacking option with Carr. He leads all tight ends with a 27% target share and no tight end is even within 2% of him. Looking at Waller as the No. 1 receiver on a team with a 27.25 implied team total, his $6,100 is a discount.
Las Vegas Raiders
If not playing a Raiders stack, their defense is the path to take. Sam Darnold's 4.3 adjusted yards per attempt is last in the league by over a yard. The Raiders are only $3,400 on DraftKings.