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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week2
Cheap wid receivers like Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown put on a show in Week 1. This made paying down at wide receiver and up for bell-cow backs a great strategy to kick off the year. Does the same hold for Week 2?
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is the highest-priced passer on the slate. In cash games, there are better values based on the savings you can get by paying down for a quarterback like Josh Allen. Mahomes still owns the highest ceiling of any passer in the league though. He's worth considering almost regardless of price.
Against Jacksonville, a consensus top-five defense, Mahomes went off for 378 yards while tossing three scores. The Oakland Raiders, who allowed the most points (29.2) to opposing teams last year, are going to get steamrolled by Mahomes. There are enough savings elsewhere on the slate to make it up to him this week.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Tom Brady becomes the centerpiece of any tournament lineup if Antonio Brown ends up playing. Between Brown and Josh Gordon, Brady will have two players who, at their peak, could have been considered the best receiver in the league. Neither is that far removed from those days and Brady also adds Edelman and James White to the mix. He'll have the best weapons in the league with AB in the fold.
The biggest concern to have with Brady is the threat of this game becoming so lopsided that he gets to rest at some point i the second half. The Ravens hung 52 on Miami and Robert Griffin III got to take the field. New England are 18-point favorites this week.
Because of this, Brady is a bit too risky for cash bu makes a great tournament play.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Last year, David Johnson was a monumental bust because of how he was used and his atrocious offense. He was continually running up the gut into stacked boxes, making his role as a three-down back meaningless. The Cardinals weren't running him on passing routes and scored fewer points than any other team in the league.
In Week 1 they spread out the Detriot defense by running sets with four wide receivers more than any other team. Then they fed Johnson the ball 18 times on the ground.
Most importantly, Johnson was targeted seven times and lead all running backs with 45 air yards. The dual-threat David Johnson we used to know and love is back. His matchup with the Ravens defense is difficult but worth the risk considering how few people will be playing him.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Just because you're playing a tournament lineup doesn't mean you have to be adverse to rostering a popular play or two. Alvin Kamara is the perfect example of "Good Chalk". The Saints/Rams showdown boasts a total of 52 points, trailing only Kansas City and Oakland. Any player getting significant volume in this game is worth looking at.
Kamara has a track record of playing the Rams well. He's faced them three times in his career and has astounding averages:
138.3 yards from scrimmage
30.8 fantasy points (PPR)
Kamara is the best bet to lead all backs in scoring this week. Fading him is at best risky and at worst incredibly foolish.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
Christan Kirk and the Arizona Cardinals looked like a train wreck through one half of football. While Arizona turned things around in the second half, the same can't be said for Kirk. He finished with a 4-32 stat line in his first game with rookie quarterback Kyler Murray.
On top of that, he faces the Ravens defense in Week 2. The Ravens crushed Miami, holding them to ten points and 190 passing yards.
While everything seems to be going against Kirk, the largest factor in a player's production is on his side: volume.
Kirk was targeted 12 times and recorded 139 air yards. Vegas has already had to jack up the line for this game by 4.5 points to 47. If the sharp money fueling that movement is right, Kirk will be peppered with targets in a game with more scoring than most expect. He'll also be very unpopular because of his Week 1 dud. Fade the public and buy Kirk.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods had a pedestrian performance against the Panthers but the volume was there. Woods led all Rams players with:
70 receiving yards
98 air yards
Now he gets to play at home in a game that should be a high-scoring affair. Stacking at least one Rams receiver with Alvin Kamara is a must this week and the volume points to Woods.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
With the explosion of Sammy Watkins against Jacksonville, there wasn't much production leftover for Kelce to handle. He posted a 3-88 line and didn't find the end zone.
Between his lackluster showing and the Watkins eruption, ownership on Kelce could be particularly low this week.
If you're playing Mahomes, you have to stack him with at least one of his pass-catchers in tournaments. Because of the recency bias surrounding Kelce and Watkins, the Mahomes-Kelce stack will be a lower-owned option than it should be this week
The Chiefs have a 30-point total, trailing only the New England Patriots. Anytime you can get Travis Kelce in a shootout AND low ownership
Houston appears as my favorite cash game defense as well and should b a popular play on the main slate. With a game this good, ownership doesn't matter.
Houston are 9.5-point favorites over Jacksonville at home.
On top of that, they get to prey on 6th-round pick and first-time starter Gardner Minshew.
Sometimes the simplest plays on a slate are the best.