Vegas vs Fantasy Week 15 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal
It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from the defenses. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.
My goal each week is to look through the lines and point out which offenses you should be targeting and which defenses are in good situations. Let’s dive right into it.
The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.
Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Steelers vs. Patriots 54 54.5 0.5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons 47.5 48.5 1


The Steelers and Patriots face off on Sunday afternoon in a game with many implications. Currently, the Steelers are in first place in the AFC and with a win, they put themselves in a good position to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This game has the highest implied total of the week and it is the only game with an over/under above 50 points. There has not been much movement on the over/under since it opened and at this time, 60 percent of the bets are on the over. The Patriots are three point favorites on the road and they are receiving 56 percent of the bets against the spread. Based on the betting that is going on, this should be considered a close game with plenty of scoring as the betting is not entirely lopsided. Both of these offenses rank among the top in the league. The Steelers average the fourth most yards and eighth most points per game, while the Patriots average the second most yards and fourth most points per game. Defensively, the Steelers have been solid for most of the season, but have been a bit more generous to opposing offenses in recent weeks. The Patriots on the other hand, started off the season as one of the worst defenses in the league and turned it around a month or so into the season, but just got embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins last week. This is a week where I fully expect the offenses to win their battles against the defense, so this game should produce plenty of fantasy goodness. Some players have a good history in this matchup, such as Antonio Brown who has scored a touchdown in three of his four career regular season games against the Patriots and has topped 100 yards twice. Rob Gronkowski has fared well against the Steelers, in five career games against them, he has scored at least one touchdown in all but one game and has at least 90 receiving yards four consecutive games. The usual suspects on both offenses are firmly in play in this one.
The Falcons and Bucs face off this weekend, a game that is expected to be high scoring. The over/under has moved up a point since it opened and the over is currently receiving 69 percent of the bets. Atlanta comes in as a six point road favorite and 82 percent of the bets are taking them against the spread. These two teams are familiar with each other as they face off twice a year. In their last three games (including once this season) these two teams have combined for over 50 points in each of their games. The Falcons have scored more than 30 points in each of their last two meetings against the Bucs. Atlanta averages the ninth most yards per game and the 16th most points per game. The Falcons offense should take advantage of the vulnerable Bucs pass defense in this contest and even though they are on the road, the weather conditions in Tampa Bay should be just fine. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 passing yards in each of his last three meetings against them and in four of his last five games. He should be considered one of the better quarterback options of the slate. Julio Jones is also a strong play in this matchup as the Bucs are awful against opposing wide outs. He did go off for 253 yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 12. The Falcons have one of the higher implied team totals and should produce plenty of fantasy points. From the Bucs side, Jameis Winston and his pass catchers can be considered viable options as they should be chasing points in this contest. Their backfield is somewhat cluttered, so even though the Falcons can struggle against pass catching backs, there is really no back on this offense that fits the bill, plus the Bucs are underdogs. This is a game where I am far more bullish on the road team and have lower expectations for the home team.
Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Steelers vs. Patriots 54 54.5 0.5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons 47.5 48.5 1


The Jaguars and Texans have the lowest implied point total and it comes to no surprise. A game with the Jaguars in it this season has typically been in this section of the article for most of the season. They are the best defense in the league, allowing the fewest points and second fewest yards per game. This is a phenomenal matchup for this unit as Houston is starting their third string quarterback this week, T.J. Yates. As it is, Houston has the third most turnovers in the league this season, so the fact that Yates is under center only makes things worse and the Jaguars lead the league in takeaways with 30. Clearly the Texans offense is one to avoid for the exception of DeAndre Hopkins, but even with him I would be tempering expectations. The Jaguars defense once again should be considered the top defense of the week. Typically in a game with this low total, I avoid the offenses, but the Jaguars do have a healthy 24.75 implied team total in this contest. Their passing game has been surprisingly solid this season, which bodes well for them as the Texans have really struggled against the pass. Blake Bortles, Marqise Lee, and Dede Westbrook all make for viable options this week. The Jaguars are 11.5 points favorites, but 55 percent of the bets are being placed on the Texans against the spread. In addition, the over is currently receiving 66 percent of the bets.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.
Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Steelers vs. Patriots 54 54.5 0.5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons 47.5 48.5 1


The Saints are expected to run over the Jets this weekend. The line for this game opened at Saints -14.5 and has increased a point and a half since. The Saints are receiving 55 percent of the bets against the spread and they have a healthy 31.75 implied team total, the highest of the slate. This game should be completely lopsided as the Saints are at home where they play much better football and the Jets quarterback situation just took a turn for the worse with Josh McCown out for the season. The Saints are fourth in the league in rushing yards, averaging 135.5 rushing yards per game and this potential game script certainly favors their running backs, so Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram both make strong plays. Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are also in play, as the Jets are allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers and the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing wide outs. The Saints defense has played surprisingly well this season and are in a great spot, making them one of the top units this week. There is a lot to like about New Orleans this week and the same cannot be said about the Jets. Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse are interesting flier options this week because they should see plenty of targets as the Jets should be passing a ton, but with Bryce Petty under center, it is tough to trust them.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.
If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal