Targeting the Tight Ends 2023 Prospects

   Targeting the Tight Ends

             2023 Prospects

It is enchanting watching tight ends dominate opponents: The all-time greats beat defenses with a unique combination of speed, agility, physicality and size. In over 40 years watching football, I have had the luxury of seeing so many preeminent playmakers at the position.

In the Eighties, San Diego Chargers’ Kellen Winslow first opened my eyes to the beauty of the position in the “Air Coryell” offense. Against the Dolphins in the Miami heat and humidity of the 1981 AFC Divisional playoff game, Winslow’s performance ranks among the greatest in the history of the league.

When I played fantasy football in the Nineties, it was nearly impossible to find a productive player at the position–Shannon Sharpe, Denver (6,884 yards) Ben Coates, New England (5,471 yards), Brent Jones, San Francisco (4,603 yards), Eric Green, Pittsburgh (4,390 yards) and Jackie Harris, Green Bay (3,963 yards)–paced the position for fantasy footballers. It was a challenging era for tight end production.

By the turn of the century, a new crop of future stars entered the league and impacted fantasy rosters: Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City (9,969 yards), Antonio Gates, San Diego (6,223 yards), Jason Witten, Dallas (5,965 yards), Jeremy Shockey, New York (5,280 yards) and Todd Heap, Baltimore (4,893 yards). Gonzalez was the first player, who provided a huge-positional advantage in fantasy football, and I loved drafting him in the third round before opponents realized the future Hall of Famers' alternative-reality impact.

In the following decade, another strong group of playmakers helped astute fantasy footballers win championships–Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (7,883 yards), Rob Gronkowsi, New England  (7,861 yards), Jason Witten (7,012 yards), Greg Olsen, Carolina (6,867 yards) and Travis Kelce, Kansas City (6,465 yards). So many incredible memories of winning fantasy games with the aforementioned players.

Over the past 10 years, I have scouted well over 100 prospects and viewed the highs and lows of college stars transitioning to the NFL. Some of the disappointing prospects included Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jace Amaro, Maxx Williams, O.J. Howard and David Njoku. All were highly-ranked players, who did not meet expectations as NFL game breakers or Dynasty scorers. The position is difficult to scout, and outcomes are challenging to predict in fantasy football.

2023 Gridiron Scholar's TE Model

(Click the link above to see the TE model and benchmarks, Class of 2023 prospects and players’ statistics) 

Despite the difficulties, it is my job to assist fantasy diehards in uncovering the next great prospects at tight end.  In need of an upgrade in Dynasty drafts? The 2023 Draft Class at tight end offers tantalizing options, and Dynasty owners are likely to pluck three or more prospects earlier than normal in drafts this year. Let’s take an in-depth look at the Class of 2023…Enjoy my fellow diehards!

1. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

Prospect Resume 

In 2022, AP First Team All-American and John Mackey Award finalist: Logged 67 catches for 809 yards and nine touchdowns. In 2021, named AP Third Team All-American with 71 receptions for 840 yards and seven touchdowns. John Mackey Award semifinalist. In 2020, immediate contributor as a freshman. Started three games and played in all 12. Recorded 42 catches for 450 yards and two touchdowns. Named First Team Freshman All-America, Third Team All-ACC and All-ACC Academic Team. In high school, four-star recruit, No. 48 overall player, No. 2 tight end, No. 1 player in Kentucky and Gatorade Player of the Year. As a senior, 49 catches for 970 yards and 15 touchdowns plus two rushing scores.

Key Career Stats

Receptions: 180

Receiving Yards: 2,099

Yards per Reception: 11.7 

Touchdowns: 18

2022 Season

Catch Percentage: 64%

Team Aerial Dominator: 30%

Film Breakdown and Skills

At 6’5” and 249-pounds, a powerful two-way competitor at the position. Dominates the middle of the defense with physicality and ball skills. Stupendous hands and snatches the ball away from body. Great body control and boxes out defenders. Physical athlete, who packs a punch. Gets clean release as an in-line pass catcher. Governs between the hash marks and in the red zone. Easily high points the ball. Good after-the-catch runner. Tacklers must make a business decision against Mayer. Underrated route runner: Manipulates opponents. Commands opponents in the run game with a strong base and powerful punch. Not an elite athlete. Lacks top-end speed. Immediate starter from first day of training camp. 

Scholar's Grade: First Round

2. Dalton Kincaid, Utah

Prospect Resume 

In 2022, John Mackey Award semifinalist, First Team All-PAC-12 and AP Third Team All-America. Recorded 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns. Led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards and receiving yards per game (77.3). In 2021, earned honorable mention All-Pac-12. Saw action in all 14 games and made 13 starts. Recorded 36 receptions for 510 yards (14.2 ypc.) and eight touchdowns. In 2020, transferred to Utah and played in five games with one catch for 14 yards. In 2019, AP Third Team All-American (FCS) and HERO Sports FCS Sophomore All-American. Paced all FCS tight ends in yards per catch (18.9). Logged 44 catches for 835 yards and eight scores. In 2018, enrolled at San Diego University (FCS). Suited up in all 12 games: Corralled 24 passes for 374 yards and 11 touchdowns. In high school, an unranked competitor. Played just one year of football. Named all-state and all-conference (2017). Also, played basketball.

Key Career Stats

Receptions: 107

Receiving Yards: 1,414

Yards per Reception: 13.2

Touchdowns: 16

2022 Season

Catch Percentage: 73%

Team Aerial Dominator: 20%

Film Breakdown and Skills

At 6’4” and 246-pounds, a prototypical “F” tight end prospect. Athletic competitor with natural hands and great ball skills. A smooth route-runner, who attacks defenses at all levels of the field. Fluid feet and stupendous body control. Good ball tracker. Wins at catch point with sticky mitts. Manipulates opponents with head fakes, shoulder shimmies and subtle movements. Master route runner with sharp cuts in-and-out of breaks. Beats linebackers with burst and speed. Ran complex route tree at Utah. Impressive catch radius. Often employed in the slot. Below average in-line blocker. Struggles in pass and run blocking. Does not engage for long. Not a twitchy athlete.

Scholar's Grade: First Round

3. Darnell Washington, Georgia

Prospect Resume 

In 2022, named preseason John Mackey Award Watch List. In 15 games, established career highs with 28 catches for 454 yards and two touchdowns. Twice named team co-captain at Kent State and Auburn. In 2021, injured in training camp and missed the first four games of the campaign. Finished with 10 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown. In high school, a four-star prospect: Ranked as the No. 23 overall prospect, the No. 1 athlete nationally and the top prospect in Nevada. Played in the 2020 Under Armour All-America Game. Also, played basketball (11 ppg. and 12 rpg.) as a junior and track and field as a freshman. Incredible Combine cemented a second-round grade: Posted a 4.64 in 40-Yard Dash and 4.08 in 20-yard Shuttle.

Key Career Stats

Receptions: 45

Receiving Yards: 774

Yards per Reception: 17.2

Touchdowns: 3

2022 Season

Catch Percentage: 66%

Team Aerial Dominator: 10%

Film Breakdown and Skills

At 6’7” and 264-pounds, a tantalizing competitor, who is the most physically and athletically talented prospect in the tight end class. After Combine, no questioning athleticism and skills. A traditional in-line “Y” tight end. Piledrives opponents in the run game: Seals the edge of the defense. Also, excels on pass blocking. Explodes in the open field with the ball in hands. Huge catch radius. Great knee bend and agility. Imposing frame and strength. Very good hands catcher, who wins contested battles. A mismatch against linebackers and safeties. Employed mostly as a blocker at Georgia. Still has room to grow at the position as a blocker and pass catcher. No doubt that an organization falls in love with size and athleticism and pushes him up their rankings despite limited production on the field.

Scholar's Grade: Second Round

4. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State

Prospect Resume 

In 2022, named John Mackey Award Watch List. Played in only two games: Boise State and Fresno State. Caught 11 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown. Suffered season-ending knee injury versus Fresno State. In 2021, played in all 13 games with nine starts. Snatched 22 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. PAC-12 Special Teams Player of the Week. Pac-12 Academic Honor Roll. In high school, three-star prospect and the No. 5 player in Oregon. Earned First-Team All-League at both tight end and defensive end. Earned Team MVP honors. Three-year letterwinner in lacrosse and competed in ski racing and track. Named First-Team All-League in lacrosse as a sophomore and junior. Giant Slalom and Super Giant Slalom Alpine Ski Racing Champion. Nephew of former NFL QB Bill Musgrave.

Key Career Stats

Receptions: 47

Receiving Yards: 633

Yards per Reception: 13.5

Touchdowns: 2

2022 Season

Catch Percentage: 55%

Team Aerial Dominator: 11%

Film Breakdown and Skills

At 6’6” and 253-pounds, prototypical size and athleticism. A well-rounded competitor, who was named to Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List at No. 27. Smooth and polished athlete. Tremendous quickness and burst at line of scrimmage. With speed and agility, creates mismatches against linebackers. Run-after-catch threat. Fancy feet and loose hips. Boxes out defenders. Soft and natural hands. Good route runner with sharp cuts. Underrated run blocker, who uses hands well. Needs to gain strength in the run game. Eye-opening Combine: Posted a 4.61 in 40-Yard Dash, 10’5” in the Broad Jump and 36” in Vertical Jump. Can provide a much-needed pass catcher to an aerial assault in 12 personnel.

Scholar's Grade: Second Round

5. Sam LaPorta, Iowa 

Prospect Resume

In 2022, named Team Captain and earned Roy Carver Most Valuable Player (offense) and Hayden Frye awards. Fourth Team All-America (Phil Steele), John Mackey Award finalist and First Team All-Big Ten. Registered 58 catches for 657 yards and a touchdown. In 2021, earned Team Hustle Award and Second Team All-Big Ten (Phil Steele). Paced Big Ten tight ends in receptions (53), yards (670), yards after catch (299), yards after contact (206) and catches of 15-plus yards (18). In 2020, honorable mention All-Big Ten. Led the team with 27 receptions, ranked second in receiving yards (271) and added a touchdown. Among all-time Iowa tight ends, ranks first in receptions and second in receiving yards. Ranks 14th in career receiving yards among all Hawkeyes. In high school, a three-star recruit. As a junior and senior, named first-team all-state honors and three-year Team Captain. Earned four letters in basketball and two in track.

Key Career Stats

Receptions: 153

Receiving Yards: 1,786

Yards per Reception: 11.7

Touchdowns: 5

2022 Season

Catch Percentage: 62%

Team Aerial Dominator: 32%

Film Breakdown and Skills

At 6’3” and 245-pounds, another elite prospect from TE-University. Physical competitor who runs tight and crisp routes. Works well laterally. A smooth athlete with very good football tools. Savvy target in the middle of the defense. Settles down in zone coverage. Natural, sure and reliable hands. Professional-level blocker with strong lower body and good technique. Lacks elite wing span and catch radius. Does not possess high-end ball skills: Loses too many contested battles. Likely plucked off the board early on Day 2 of the Draft.

Scholar’s Grade: Second Round