Target and Snap Analysis Week 5 2016

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan The dominant target leaders of the league are really starting to take shape and there are a handful of players in which we can establish a baseline in terms of targets and gauge their target floor. Four weeks is the minimum sample I like to work with when projecting season-long totals, and I feel four weeks is enough to assume some sort of consistency.

Through four weeks, we have seven players who average double-digit targets per game. Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Greg Olsen, and Mike Evans are on this list and that is expected. Target share is a big part of the value these players hold when you drafted them earlier this summer or when you roster them in your daily fantasy lineups. A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, and T.Y. Hilton are also in the double-digit club, and while these players had the upside for a large target share they were not a lock like the aforementioned group. The seventh player is a pleasant surprise in Terrelle Pryor, who was a quarterback 15 months ago. If that does not impress you, perhaps you should lower your standards. Here is a visual of what these players account for as target leaders thus far.




Let’s dive right into the numbers.

- As evident above, Mike Evans leads the league in targets, however his 27% team target share is the least among the players above. Jameis Winston is throwing the ball at a record pace and spreading it around. Winston has an interesting trend this season of having a great game, awful game, great game, and awful game through four weeks. If he is continues this trend of bouncing back every other week, his target leader Evans could benefit from a huge game this week against the Panthers, whose rookie corners are allowing an average of 20.5 points to receivers each week.



- Notable players who have yet to hit pay dirt in 2016:
o Odell Beckham, Jr.
o Julian Edelman
o Amari Cooper
o Randall Cobb
o Alshon Jeffery

- Surprising players who have hit pay dirt more than once in 2016:
o Seth Roberts (3)
o Brian Quick (3)
o Zach Miller (3)
o DeVante Adams (2)

Touchdowns are where the money is made in real football as well as fantasy football. The six points awarded for a touchdown is as good as it gets in terms of scoring. We now have enough data for my baseline in calculating the percentage at which a player scores a touchdown per target. It makes no sense to mention a player like Corey Grant from Jacksonville, who turned one target into one
reception for one score, effectively giving him a 100% touchdown per target rate (TD/T). Here are a few players who caught my eye.

- Seth Roberts: 19 targets, 10 receptions, 3 TD, 15.79% TD/T. Roberts is turning a small amount of volume into a lot of points.
- Zach Miller: 21 targets, 18 receptions, 3 TD, 14.29% TD/T. All of those production despite accounting for just 15% of the team target share. Raise your hand if you thought Zach Miller would be the top fantasy option in Chicago this season. What a surprise.
- Jordy Nelson: 27 targets, 17 receptions, 4 TD, 14.81 TD/T. Nelson is a late second round draft pick that is performing as a first round pick, which is what those who were not afraid of his knee injury expect of him. Randall Cobb is a ghost on this team and is yielding the scoring opportunities to Nelson.

It is impressive to think about these numbers in the context that these three players are scoring touchdowns on roughly 15% of their targets. TD/T will only become more clear as the weeks progress.

- There is a large, 10-yard difference between the red zone and the 10 zone. The red zone is 1/5 of the playing field whereas the 10 zone is 1/10. The territory of the 10 zone is usually the sweet spot for running backs but receivers get theirs, too. There is one player in the NFL who currently accounts for all four, or 100%, of his teams’ 10 zone targets and that is Kyle Rudolph. Two of his three touchdowns this season have come in the 10 zone. The other touchdown came in the red zone, where he accounts for 50% of the Vikings’ red zone targets with six. When you hear the term “red zone threat” you have no choice but to envision Rudolph.
As always, I am encouraging you to utilize our tools to your advantage to dig up some stats that catch your eye that will give you an edge each week.

Targets: http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm

Snaps: http://www.footballdiehards.com/nfl-snap-counts.cfm

I always stress the importance of studying our targets and snaps tools and seeing what sort of things stick out to you. I share with you what I see, but with all the numbers and filters available you will certainly find some things in there that you can use to your advantage to get an edge when making lineup decisions. I’ll deliver you a few of the things I have found each week but I can go on forever. I encourage you to do the same, or to reach out to me @FFdeJENerate, with any questions related to our tools or fantasy football that you may have. Good luck this week!