Fantastic Five Beyond the Top 100 ADP

By John Laub
John Laub

Fantastic Five Beyond the Top 100 ADP

By John Laub, The Gridiron Scholar

Fantasy Football Diehards often fixate on their first two selections in upcoming drafts. While the top 24 players dominate research and conversations among fantasy managers, astute alternative-reality zealots know that a championship trophy is won in the later rounds of drafts. And shrewd pickups off the waiver wire throughout the season.

The reality is that Diehards must dodge fantasy busts between their first two selections and draft wisely thereafter. If an owner can get two significant starters after the eighth round of a 12-team draft, the likeliness of winning increases dramatically.

In 2013, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, Andy Dalton, Phillip Rivers, Kendall Wright, Julian Edelman, Pierre Thomas and Danny Woodhead all had an ADP beyond the Top 100 last summer and became fantasy starters on many playoff teams by the end of the year.

Who are the late-round performers in 2014? While no fantasy prognosticator can be clairvoyant all the time, listed below are five players to target later in drafts. Many of these competitors I have already selected on my fantasy clubs and am confident in the draft value and upside of each performer.

Enjoy the player profiles, current approximate ADP and good luck searching for fantasy gold in 2014.

1. DeAndre Hopkins, ADP 144
The Texans collapsed last season and posted a 2-14 record, earning the first pick in the 2014 draft. Despite the team’s meager performance, Houston’s roster is not bare of talent, and offensively, enjoys the components to move the chains and win games. New coach Bill O’Brien fortified the blocking up front with rookie G Xavier Su’a-Filo and TE C.J. Fiedorowicz. The former Patriots’ offensive coordinator also signed veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is an intelligent and underrated thrower.

Second-year receivers often make a dramatic leap in performance, and Hopkins is primed to eclipse last years’ numbers. He finished second among rookie receivers with 52 catches for 802 yards and two touchdowns. The former Clemson star has good size, boundless ball skills and a colossal catch radius. With All-Pro Andre Johnson demanding the attention of double-teams, Hopkins will often be left in single coverage against lesser defensive backs. O’Brien and Fitzpatrick are canny enough to exploit these matchups, and Hopkins reaches his potential as a first-round pick last year.

2014 Projections: 75 receptions for 1,075 yards and seven touchdowns

2. Devonta Freeman, ADP 128

In professional sports, no position is crueler than running back, and veteran Steven Jackson is clearly at the end of the line. The Falcons have the aerial firepower required to compete on offense; nevertheless, a reliable rushing assault is the missing element to punch a ticket to the post-season. In the draft, Atlanta upgraded its offensive line and selected Devonta Freeman in the fourth round to solidify the ground game.

A quick accelerator, the rookie runner is built low to the ground and employs a plant-and-go running style, which is effective inside and outside the tackles. Freeman also has the tools to be a three-down back at the next level and can stay on the field for coach Mike Smith at all times. He will not encounter eight-men, in-the-box defensive formations with wide outs Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas on the field. While the former Florida State Seminole might not earn the stating assignment for kickoff in September, fantasy owners must be patient and wait for Freeman to rise up the depth chart: his freshman campaign may very well mirror Zac Stacy’s last year.

2014 Projections: 900 rushing and 250 receiving yards rushing and eight touchdowns

3. Ladarius Green, ADP 142

Many fantasy owners are probing the plausible upside of Ladarius Green; conversely, they are uneasy with All-Pro TE Antonio Gates on the team and cannot precisely assess the youngster’s role in the offense. Green towers over defenders with a 6’6” and 240-pound frame and has ankle-turning speed for a big man, averaging over 22 yards a catch last season. Both coach Mike McCoy and Rivers have waxed poetically about Green’s potential and vow to get the raw homerun hitter added snaps and targets in the aerial attack.

Do not be surprised if the Chargers employ more two tight end formations with both Gates—who is a 34-years old and a 12-season veteran—and Green on the gridiron, forcing defenses to make difficult decisions. Without question, the promising third-year target will become an integral weapon for QB Phillip Rivers in 2014. Astute owners are passing on Gates and grabbing Green as a breakout candidate late in drafts. The former Louisiana-Lafayette product could easily produce 15 yards per reception and score six times this season.

2014 Projections: 50 receptions for 750 yards and six touchdowns

4. Marvin Jones, ADP 132

The Cincinnati flanker appeared on fantasy owners’ radar when he unexpectedly scored four times against the Jets last year, which capped a three-game stretch with six touchdowns. In the other 13 contests, Marvin Jones reached the end zone only four times. In the playoffs against the Chargers however, Jones demonstrated his upside potential with eight catches for 130 yards.

Despite the breakout crusade, the quicker-than-fast Bengal is largely being overlooked in fantasy football this year. The former California Bear has nice size and length with natural ball skills and body control. Defenses must focus on All-World WR A.J. Green and keep a close eye on RB Giovani Bernard out of the backfield, leaving Jones in single coverage. He will never be the alpha dog in Cincinnati but is a terrific second fiddle in offensive coordinator Hue Jackson’s assault. Jones is not likely to replicate his 10 touchdowns; nevertheless, it is realistic to forecast an increase in catches and yards.

2014 Projections: 65 receptions for 910 yards and eight touchdowns

5. Harry Douglas, ADP 172

In PPR leagues last year, Harry Douglas became a weekly fantasy starter around mid-season and snatched 85 passes for over 1,000 yards but only scored twice. Most managers are staying away from the veteran Falcon in 2014 with the healthy return of Julio Jones and Roddy White. While Douglas may not start in base formations, he will often be on the field in three- and four-receiver sets after the retirement of Tony Gonzalez, who caught 83 passes last year while working the middle of the field.

With blazing speed and a quick first step, Douglas manipulates defenders and shakes coverage in one-on-one matchups underneath the defense. The five-year veteran is the perfect slot-receiver to compliment Jones and White, and has gained the confidence of QB Matt Ryan after last season’s performance. He isn’t likely to match his receptions (or targets) of a year ago, but may be able to duplicate his yardage and likely score more touchdowns.

2014 Projections: 70 receptions for 945 yards and five touchdowns

Bonus Pick: Ryan Tannehill, ADP 170

Despite playing behind the worst offensive line in football and enduring a league-high 58 sacks last year, the sophomore signal caller exceed expectations with 24 touchdown passes for nearly 4,000 yards. During the offseason, Miami aggressively addressed its offensive line problems and acquired free agents Branden Albert (LT) and Shelley Smith (LG) and drafted Ja’Wuan James (RT) in the first round. The Dolphins also signed free-agent RB Knowshon Moreno, who will provide much-needed pass protection assistance and a check-down target in the aerial assault. Without question, the acquisitions will improve the fantasy prospects of Ryan Tannehill this year.

In the locker room, the third-year thrower endured a firestorm from the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin scandal; yet on the gridiron, he moved the chains despite limited playmakers at the skill positions. With Mike Wallace, Charles Clay, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson and Moreno, Tannehill’s co-workers should be able to make plays as long as the pass protection holds up. The former Texas A&M field general has quick feet, good balance, and a strong arm: He is also a laudable decision maker with commendable pocket presence. NFL competitors tend to rally around quarterbacks who are tough and overcome adversity, which is the narrative of Tannehill’s two seasons in Miami. He could ascend to the top-12 among fantasy performers at the QB position by the end of the 2014 campaign.

2014 Projections: 4,250 passing and 28 touchdown passes

In mid-June, John Laub participated in an on-line draft with other experts, and the results and comments for all the teams are available in the 2014 Fantasy Football DraftBook on sale August 1, 2014 this summer.

With his Masters in history and professional experience as an educator, John Laub is uniquely qualified to research, analyze and discover new insights and trends in college and professional fantasy football. He truly is The Gridiron Scholar.

Twitter: @GridironSchol91 or e-mail: Audibles@aol.com