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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2020 Week 10
Russell Wilson, SEA
Wilson is coming off another impressive game but the people who stacked him lost money because neither of his receivers had good games. He also gets a difficult matchup versus the vaunted Rams defense. Defense does not matter for Wilson. He has played four teams in the top-half of passing DVOA rankings this year. He's averaged 338 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns in those games. If Wilson is getting any discount in ownership, buy the dip.
Justin Herbert, LAC
Herbert is another quarterback facing a less-than-ideal quarterback matchup. Herbert is also playing at a level that should render defensive matchups irrelevant. He's throwing touchdowns at a 6.3% clip and is averaging 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt. His game versus Miami has a 48-point total but also gets an edge in the spread. His game is expected to be decided by less than a field goal which should keep both teams playing aggressive through four quarters.
Mike Davis, CAR
Christian McCaffrey is shaping up to miss this week but DraftKings wasn't able to price up Davis before the news broke. Davis started six games with McCaffrey out. In those games (per game):
8 13.8 attempts, 58.2 yards, .3 touchdowns
* 5 receptions, 28.3 yards, .3 touchdowns
We get another weak of Davis free square in Week 10. Because Davis is such an obvious play, stacking him with Bridgewater and banking on a receiving score could be a way to build a unique and +EV Davis lineup.
Miles Sanders, PHI
Sanders falls into the middle-range of running backs in terms of price on both sites and could be overlooked because of chalk among expensive rushers. Don't let his price or lack of popularity deceiver you, Sanders could see just as much work as Aaron Jones or Josh Josh Jacobs this week. He has averaged 14.2 carries and five targets per game this year. All of that volume has translated to over 100 yards from scrimmage per game. His team is favored by over a field goal versus the Giants and also has a 24-point implied team total.
D.J. Moore, CAR
Despite a recent stretch of lacking performances, Moore's market share numbers are impressive. His .58 WOPR (weighted metric of air yards share and target share) is 16th among receivers and Mike Davis is going to be popular in all formats. Moore, Bridgewater, and Robby Anderson are all solid leverage plays off Davis if your lineup doesn't use him.
Mike Williams, LAC
Mike Williams hasn't topped 100 yards or scored more than once since Week 5 but his role remains unchanged. In the three weeks after his blowup performance against the Saints, Thomas has averaged six targets (1.3 red zone) and 90.7 air yards per game. He's also top-10 in deep targets despite playing in just six games this year. Williams' skillset and usage were built for tournaments.
Dallas Goedert, PHI
With Zach Ertz still in the lineup, Goedert opened the year (two games) with a 20% target share and 17 targets. Both marks led the Eagles and his air yards share was third on the team. He now gets to return to a team without Ertz or DeSean Jackson. Goedert could resume being the leading receiver on his team at a low price and low ownership.
Hunter Henry, LAC
Henry is seeing the volume of a TE1, he just hasn't had the blowup week that most heavily-used tight ends put up. He has at least four targets in every game this year and has at least seven looks in six of eight games. Despite the impressive volume, Henry only has one score and not games over 50 yards in his past six contests. The volume he's seeing on an offense that has been incredible under Justin Hebert suggests the big performances are coming.
The Lions face Washington this week and that means they get Alex Smith. Despite an incredible comeback narrative, Smith has been dreadful in a limited sample.
* 2% touchdown rate
* 6.1% interception rate
* 14% sack rate
Even if these numbers are inflated by the small sample, they indicate that Smith is the guy to target with defenses. Unless the Lions are the most popular defense by a mile, they are the easiest way to save money and still get a good matchup.