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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 9
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay
Russell Wilson is going to be the chalk option in this game but there are a number of reasons to look his passing counterpart in this game, Jameis Winston.
Winston is much cheaper, has better stacking options, and has as high of a ceiling as any passer on the slate. Since the start of 2018, Winston has six fantasy performances in the top-six passers for the week. He's done that in just 18 games.
Tampa is 13th in pass play percentage (60.1%) and that number is on the upswing lately. In their past three games that percent has reached 70. Not so coincidentally, the Bucs lost all three of those games.
They are six-points dogs so you can expect another loss and another barrage of passes from the gunslinging veteran.
Chris Carson, Seattle
Tampa versus Seattle will be the ultimate test of an immovable object facing an unstoppable force. Tampa has given up more than 80% of their opponents' yards through the air. Seatle has rushed the ball on 48.4% of their snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Chris Carson and Seattle are six-point favorites at home this week. Carson has averaged 20.1 carries per game as a home favorite. He's averaged 17.3 in all other games.
Play the team projected to pass more in the Buccaneers and run them back with Seattle's bell-cow back.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Nick Chubb has been one of the floor/ceiling backs this season. He's had no fewer than 17 touches and 85 yards from scrimmage this season in a single game. He's also 11th in red zone carries at 19. He also has three targets within the 20 and 27 targets on the season.
Chubb also has some touchdown regression coming in his passing game. He has yet to score through the air despite being top-20 in targets. Twelve of the top-20 have a touchdown and six have multiple. Keep riding Chubb as a favorite over the reeling Broncos.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Last week it was Mike Evans who went off for Tampa Bay but it could have easily been Godwin, who received eight targets. Godwin has twice as many 100-yard games as Evans this season as well as 10-catch games. He's averaged 2.5 fantasy points per target this season compared to Evans' 2.1.
Godwin has been the more consistent player this season but he's also done more with his targets. Evans is a fine stacking option with Winston but he's likely going to be the more popular of the duo because of his 191-yard outing last week. Fade the recency bias and pay up for Godwin.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit
Surprisingly, the matchup between Detroit and Oakland has the second-highest total on the main slate at 50. It trails only the Tampa/Seattle game. Stacking the latter of the two games is likely the best route to capture the most upside but that doesn't mean you should be leaving this game alone completely. The best way to get the largest market share of yards in this game (which are a good predictor of touchdowns and fantasy points) is via Kenny Golladay.
Golladay and Waller have each accounted for 19% of their team's total yards. However, Golladay is playing his second game without Kerryon Johnson while Waller now has to compete with Tyrell Williams, who just returned from injury.
Waller and Golladay are headed in opposite direction from a market-share perspective. The best way to get a part of this game is through the one alpha receiver playing in it.
Noah Fant, Denver
When Joe Flacco was ruled out with an injury the line swung from Denver 2 to Cleveland -3. If this is any reflection of the DFS market, Broncos are going to be very low owned. This is despite the fact that Flacco was in the bottom five in yards per attempt, passer rating, and touchdown rate. At worst, moving to Brandon Allen is a lateral move. At best, it's an upgrade.
That is a good sign for Noah Fant, who set a season-high mark for targets of eight last week. Running Fant back with Chubb is also a great way to leverage Cleveland taking a lead and Denver trailing but without Flacco under center.
After scoring five times in two starts, Ryan Tannehill is going to garner a non-zero amount of ownership as will his weapons, namely, Jonnu Smith and A.J. Brown, who both scored last week. Any ownership over zero percent ownership for these players is the result of a bad process that can be leveraged in DFS.
The Panthers have been a crushing defense this season. They are second in sacks at 30 and third in passes defended at 46.
This week they host the Titans and Tannehill. Here's a small glimpse at Tannehill's numbers throughout his career:
- 2.6% interception rate
- 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt
- 87.6 passer Rating
Tannehill is going to come crashing down to Earth this season and the Panthers are just the team to deliver that to him.