DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 18

By Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

If you've ever noticed that the Saints tend to play high-scoring games at home, you're not alone. This season they are 4-4 versus the game total but have averaged 3.3 points over. Games in the Super Dome don't always hit the over, but when they do, they smash. In fact, New Orleans games at home have averaged an over on the game total in each of the past five years.

Brees and co. are going to be popular but you can still lever the best game environment over the past five years with the Saints opponents. Start that stack with a low-owned Kirk Cousins.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Even in tournaments, you're going to have to eat some chalk. Kamara is the first of that chalk. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are both great plays, but at $7,400 and $9,300 (DraftKings), the odds of them both going over 3X are slim. This is simply because they would need massive yardage or three touchdowns between the two. Instead of counting on that, roster one and in the invent that that player soaks up the touchdown variance, you've got tournament winning leverage on your roster.

Kamara's 18 touches per game were 13th in the NFL this year but his receiving work outshines almost anyone. Only Christian McCaffrey saw more targets than his 6.9 per game.

I lean Kamara because of the total touch volume but Thomas is easily in play for tournaments as well. Just don't roster both.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

The Bills have anointed Devin Singletary their bell-cow running back and he's going to be treated like a committee back with the likes of Kamara and Dalvin Cook on this slate. From Weeks 8-16:

16.4 carries per game
3.6 targets
92.4 yards from scrimmage

The only thing missing in Singletary's arsenal is touchdown potential. Over that same span, Singeltary has scored twice. However, if there's anything that Kamara has taught us this season, it's that touchdown are hard to predict. Chase the volume and scores will follow.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

If you're rostering Kirk Cousins, you have to stack him with at least one of his receivers and for him to reach a true ceiling game, two of his pass-catchers likely have to go off. We'll focus on Stefon Diggs here but you should be rostering him and at least one of Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, or Kyle Rudolph too.

Thielen was back for two games before all the Vikings got to sit out Week 17. In those games:

Diggs: 11 targets, 7 receptions, 133 receiving yards
Thielen: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 27 yards

It's possible that Thielen is nowhere near 100% yet after missing nearly half the season with a hamstring injury. If that continues to be the case, Diggs is a lock. If not, all the more reason to stack Thielen and Diggs both with Cousins.

John Brown, Buffalo Bills

Of all playoff players (including players we won't see until the Divisional Round because their team's earned byes) John Brown has the most air yards. In fact, he's the only wideout who's top-10 in air yards to make the playoffs.

Plus, the Texans have given up the eigthth-most passing plays of 15 or more yards this year. They have also allowed teams to throw for 267.2 yards per game, fourth-most in the league.

All signs point to this being a Brown game. Don't avoid the signs.

Tight End

Jordan Akins, Houston Texans

Tight end is awfully thin on the Saturday slate and doesn't get much better on Sunday. None of the top-10 tight ends, in terms of targets per game, play this weekend and Dallas Goedert (No. 11) will be the most popular play by a country mile if Zach Ertz can't suit up.

When there are no good plays, just punt the position with a cheap shot at some touchdown upside.

Jordan Akins has seen 20 targets over the past four games and has been on the field for at least 60% of the Texans' offensive snaps in each of those games. He's pushing Darren Fells for the starting tight end job and that role has netted Fells seven receiving scores.

Akins is a great stacking option if you want to go with Deshaun Watson or Josh Allen in a game loaded with big-play potential. Even if you don't roster either of the passers in this game, he also correlates well with an opposing receiving option like Brown.

Defense

New England Patriots

The thesis behind playing the New England defense is pretty simple. The Titans are coming off a stretch of great games and will be higher owned than their odds of being in a tournament winning lineup would suggest. Leverage that with the Patriots defense.

It also doesn't hurt that Ryan Tannehill's staggering 9.8% sack rate is second in the NFL. Conversely, New England's 2.9 sacks per game are top-10 in the league. Give Bill Belichek and his defense a week to prepare for career backup Ryan Tannehill and i like his odds. Tell me that the Titans will garner some ownership. I love it.