DFS Bobby Gomes Tournament Breakdown Week 3 2018
My builds in tournaments are centered around the two highest games on the slate and Corey Clement chalk. I’m building as if ajayi is not going to play so i’ll be overweight on what I believe to be is good chalk in Corey Clement. The other game that is really interesting to me is the Rams/ Chargers game seems like a good game to find value to sprinkle in to stacks you have of the San Fran/ KC game and the ATL/ New Orleans game.
Drew Brees (6,400) Projected Ownership (10%)
Vegas has Atlanta as the favorite coming into this game so Brees should be playing from behind. Like the idea of stacking Brees with either Thomas or Kamara While its extremely difficult to stack all three with Kamara and Thomas being the most expensive players at their respective positions think it makes a lot of sense to stack one of the two and then use Ginn or Watson on the outside.
Jimmy Garoppolo (6,500) Projected Ownership (10%)
Been waiting on Jimmy, this is fantastic spot for him and Kyle Shanahan to finally get it going. San Fran comes into Arrowhead as 6 point dog and 24.5 implied team total. Playing from behind going up against a Chiefs secondary that will be without Eric Berry. All the pieces fit for Jimmy to have a great game.
Deshaun Watson (6,100) Projected Ownership (5%)
Watson is a nice tournament pivot off of the four quarterbacks in the two high totaled games on this slate. Watson has incredible upside in this home matchup versus a Giants defense that is pretty banged up. Watson has upside with his legs and also his arm. Houston has a terrible offensive line but the Giants pass rush is just a as bad look for Watson to take advantage.
Todd Gurley (9,200) Projected Ownership (17%)
Todd Gurley is in a better spot than Alvin Kamara. The Chargers are reverse funnel defense that funnel offense to the run. Gurley should have a field day versus this front seven and the rams have 27.5 team total which is the third highest on the slate. I will be overweight on Gurley
Alvin Kamara (9,500) Projected Ownership (25%)
In tournaments we are always trying to differentiate ourselves. Love the idea of stacking Brees and Kamara. So many people view the quarterback running back stack as a negative correlation and refuse to use this type of build so it should be a good way to build differently. The Falcons defensive scheme usually funnels targets to the running back position. With Deion Jones out Carolina took full advantage and Mccaffrey saw fourteen targets I look for the Saints to use Kamara in the same manner.
Kareem Hunt (6,000)
Kareem Hunt is a great leverage play off of the Kansas City Chiefs airriel attack in tournaments. The game script positively correlates to the running game as the Chiefs are a 6.5 point favorite against the 49ers. The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the board. One knock on hunt is he doesn’t catch passes it doesn’t matter he should be running downhill in this game and he should be playing with a lead.
Deandre Hopkins (8,300) Projected Ownership ( 12%)
Hopkins is at home and has multi touchdown upside in this matchup. He’s more expensive than Julio, but I believe he has better touchdown equity, and will be at lower ownership. Hopkins gets a favorable matchup versus Janoris Jenkins, and don’t overlook the Odell effect, I feel like Hopkins will look over on the other side see the highest paid receiver in the league and try his best to out play him. Hopkins believes he is the best receiver in the league and would like to be paid like it one day is they're a better spot to make a statement than at home outplaying the guy who is.
Julio Jones (7,900) Projected Ownership (17%)
Julio is too cheap at (7,900) in this matchup and he has had some huge games versus the Saints. Last three games versus the Saints he’s gone over 95 yards in all three games. I know the matchup versus Latimore isn’t great but Julio is an all world receiver. My issue with Julio has nothing to do with the matchup but more to do with Sarkesian and the difficulty he has had scheming up Julio in the Red Zone.
Keenan Allen (7,700) Projected Ownership (7%)
Ownership projection is way to low on Keenan Allen. Allen could see 12 to 15 targets in this game with the chargers playing from behind. Allen has been running the majority of his routes from the slot and where you work the rams is over the middle of the field. Do not overlook Keenan Allen he is a great leverage play over a guy like Julio Jones on this slate.
Zack Ertz (5,000) Projected Ownership (5%)
Love Ertz as a tournament pivot especially with Carson Wentz back. This game could end up being a shootout. Alshon Jeffery is out Ertz should see some of that usage slide over.
George Kittle (4,500) Projected Ownership (7%)
Kittle has been on the wrong side of touchdown variance that should swing back the other way in this game. The 49ers should be playing from behind and it looks like Eric Berry is going to be out. Kittle burned every one last week going back to him in tournaments as a leverage play over the people will hold this against him and not roster him is a great move especially with this game script.
Travis Kelce (6,700) Projected Ownership (15%)
Kelce two touchdowns last week feel like you need to be with the field on Kelce and eat the chalk this week especially if your maxing out. The Chiefs team total is thirty don’t overlook this game and don’t overlook Kelce.
Vikings (4,300) Projected Ownership (15%)
I’m paying up for the Vikings defense in Large field GPP’s and possibly in cash. The Bills are just so bad. The Bills have a team total of twelve yes you read that right twelve and the spread is sixteen. There will be turnovers there will be sacks find a way to pay up for the Vikes.
Bears (3,900) Projected Ownership (12%)
Bears get a great matchup versus the Cardinals this week and the Cardinals are extremely bad. Sam Bradford is a statue back they're at this point in his career and Khalil Mack can bring it off the edge, don’t overlook the Bears.
Texans (2,800) Projected Ownership (5%)
JJ Watt going up against Eric Flowers is going to be one of the biggest mismatches off the season on the defensive line. Make sure Clowney is active before you roster texans Defense this Giants offensive line should have a ton of trouble with Clowney and Watt off the edges.