News & Info/Headlines

As Profootballtalk.com framed it, "The speculation over Tom Brady liking the Instagram post on Philip Rivers' split with Chargers is another sign that the NFL’s silly season is alive and well."

But we have a strong suspicion, certainly in Brady's case, the silliness hasn't even begun in earnest yet.

So before it gets too silly, let's see where we stand now -- starting with the question of what type of progress has been made in contract negotiations between the two sides?

According to ESPN.com's Mike Reiss, the answer to that is simple: "None."

Reiss, citing sources, went on to explain that as of late last week, the sides had not engaged in contract talks. But as Brady noted in his Super Bowl LIV interview on Westwood One, there is open dialogue between him and the Patriots, which reflects that the situation is without animosity.

“They know how I feel about them. I know how they feel about me. We’ve always had a great relationship. We always will,” Brady said.

So what is the most realistic timetable for substantial contract talks?

According to Reiss (who contends the fact the two sides have yet to get down to brass tacks isn't surprising), because the Patriots will absorb a $13.5 million salary-cap charge if Brady is not on the roster when the 2020 league year begins on March 18 -- which would account for the acceleration of his prior signing bonus -- owner Robert Kraft and head coach Bill Belichick are expected to push for substantial discussions before that point.

Simply put, the Patriots will want clarity about Brady’s intentions and willingness to return as they enter free agency, as that will be the first major domino to fall in the team’s planning.

The Patriots currently project to have about $29 million in cap space, per sources.

But if Brady’s contract is extended before the 2020 league year begins, it would lessen the dead money on the team’s 2020 cap because it could be accounted for over multiple years.

The issue, however, will be the interest of other teams and Brady's desire to fully gauge that interest.

As Reiss suggests, if Brady is committed to visiting other teams, which can happen only once the 2020 league year begins, it puts the Patriots in a tough financial spot and decreases the likelihood of his return. That would mean the Patriots would have to absorb a $13.5 million cap charge regardless.

So taking that $13.5 million hit, and then signing Brady to a different deal that would add more charges to the cap, would not be a favorable scenario for the Patriots.

Some view Brady's decision to put a provision in his last contract not to be franchise-tagged as an indication he’d like to visit other teams. Others view it as a vehicle for him to create leverage/urgency in discussions with the Patriots, something he didn’t have on his side in the past two negotiations.

Beyond all that, as Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio pointed out, with so many available veteran quarterbacks in the coming free-agency cycle, "Brady could logjam the entire process if he decides that he’s going to take his wife and one or more kids to L.A., Nashville, Miami, Dallas, New York (if that’s what this means), Indianapolis, Denver, Las Vegas, Chicago, Charlotte, Tampa Bay and/or San Francisco (again, chaos) for face-to-face meetings aimed at bigger-than-money questions like offensive philosophy, personnel, and overall feel and fit."

While some of those teams seem like a reach, the Raiders, who are moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, are ready to put all their chips in the middle of the table for Brady, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The Chargers, who announced Monday that Rivers won't be back, are another possibility, potentially pitting AFC West rivals in a competition for Brady.

While some viewed Miami as a possible suitor thanks to excessive salary-cap space, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said at Super Bowl LIV he couldn’t imagine why Brady would be interested, as their goals wouldn’t seem to be aligned. “We’re at the stage trying to really build a team for the future,” Ross said.

Whatever the case, as Florio went on to suggest, "At a time when the NFL’s offseason structure is set up for free agency to move quickly, Brady could be in position to bend time in his direction, allowing him to make the most informed decision possible and avoiding the common problem (as the Texans learned with Brock Osweiler four years ago) of hiring a guy the head coach has never even met."

Ultimately, whether Brady can pull something like this off hinges on whether teams will let him.

Remember, Brady’s agents can negotiate with other teams in the legal tampering period, which begins on March 16 at 4 p.m. ET. So Brady can still get a sense of the free-agent market for 48 hours before the 2020 league year begins without taking an official visit with another club.

So what's our best guess at this point?

According to Reiss, former Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is one of Brady’s top football mentors -- Brady was at Weis’ bedside when there were complications from gastric bypass surgery -- and Weis relayed a recent exchange they had as part of his daily “Opening Drive” program on Sirius XM NFL Radio that might offer some insight.

“I texted him when they picked the top 100. ... And said ‘Congrats.’ He said ‘For what?’ I said for being part of the top 100 and then on top of it, [some in the media] picked you to be the starter. He goes, ‘You know the only thing I’m worrying about is a ring.’ That kind of sums it up. He wants to win another championship. That’s why he’s still playing. He wouldn’t play for money at this point.”

This is consistent with how Brady has approached his career but is timely confirmation that his mindset hasn’t changed.

And it would be hard to make an argument that New England -- with a coaching staff he's worked with for years and offensive system he's totally immersed in -- doesn't offer the best chance of that assuming the team makes some moves around him.

There have been rumors linking A.J. Green, who will be an unrestricted free agent, to the Patriots. And there are some top-notch young tight ends who will be available as well, including Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry and Eric Ebron.

Kraft has said he hopes Brady returns. And Brady still gives the Patriots the best chance to win, which is usually the foundation for most of Belichick’s decisions.

But as Reiss added, there is also an acknowledgment, regardless of how things unfold with Brady, that the franchise will be facing a transition at quarterback sometime within the next three years. So if the sides can’t find common ground, or if Brady’s demands are deemed excessive, it would simply accelerate the time frame for the transition.

Also worth remembering, with Rivers already available and the futures of Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater (and to a less degree, Dak Prescott) all up in the air, Brady is only one of the handful of high-profile QBs who we'll be watching in coming weeks. Hang on and stay tuned.