DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 15

By Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

The Titans square off with Houston this week in a game with major playoff implications and a high total of 50 points. That total has risen 1.5-points since opening and the Titan's team total of 26.5 is fourth-highest on the main slate. Also, Ryan Tannehill has been a god this season:

73.4% completion percentage - 2nd
7.4% touchdown rate - 2nd
9.8 yards per attempt - 1st

Tannehill will come back down to earth at some point but it's also clear that, like most players, he was held back by an inept franchise in Miami and is now getting a chance to prove his true worth.

Tap into the best game of the main slate with the home-favored quarterback.

Running Back

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan has forgone his love of Tevin Coleman in favor of the best back in his stable, Raheem Mostert. The veteran back has 29 carries and four targets over the past two weeks. Over that span, he has been on the field for 67.7% of the 49ers' offensive snaps. Tevin Coleman has eight carries and a lone target in the past two weeks.

San Francisco plays Atlanta this week and they're 11-point favorites at home with a 28.5 implied team total. Both marks are the largest of the main slate.

The lead back on the second-highest scoring offense is affordable, in a smash spot, and will likely be under-owned because of his recent emergence.

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is going to be without Rashaad Penny for the final weeks of 2019 as he recovers from an ACL tear. Warning flares should be going off in your brain that Chris Carson season is about to commence. Over the past two years, Carson has smashed when Penny was out of the lineup:

With Penny: 14.1 PPR points, 16.7 carries, 1.8 receptions
Without Penny: 18.2, 21.9, 2.6

This week Carson will be a 6-point favorite over Carolina. The Panthers have also allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs this season. When all the signs point to a Chris Carson game, it might be because we're about to get a huge Chris Carson game.

Wide Receiver

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

I'm not saying to play Corey Davis over A.J. Brown. Brown is clearly the No. 1 receiver in Tennessee and if you're running Tannehill, you should pair Brown with him. But simple QB-WR stacks are going to cut it if you want to take down a large field GPP.

Davis is the best secondary option to add to a Titans stack.

Corey Davis has played six games with Tannehill under center. In those games, he has a 16% target share and 24% air yards share. Those marks are only 4% and 3% behind Brown.

Davis isn't as far behind Brown as most think but the ownership disparity between the two is going to be massive. Make your Tannehill stacks unique by doubling down with Davis.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

The Lions pass-catching unit is turning into a graveyard as the season comes to a close. With Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and Marvin Hall all on IR, they are without their second, fourth, and fifth leaders in terms of air yards.

This week the Lions face the Buccaneers and their truly abhorrent pass-defense. They have given up 48.6 DraftKings points to opposing receiving groups this season. That leads the league and is a whopping seven points per game more than the number two team, 41.5.

The Lions are also 3.5-point dogs which should keep them in pass-first mode throughout the game.

Tight End

Darren Fells, Houston Texans

One final way to get different while attacking the highest-total game of the main slate is to roster a tight end, any tight end, in the game. Fells has been a non-factor in terms of catches and yardage but the Texans have relied on him heavily in the red zone.

His measly 10% target share more than double to 22.4% in the red zone. His 11 red zone targets trail only Deandre Hopkins for the Texans. He leads the Texans, and all tight ends, with nine catches inside the 20.

Finally, Fells' seven touchdowns lead all tight ends (except Mark Andrews who also has seven).

If this game is going to smash the over, Fells is a good bet to find paydirt.

Defense

Detroit Lions

The DEF-WR stack isn't common but it has been in the perfect lineup in recent weeks. If a defense can force turnovers and generate short fields for their offense, it would make sense that there is some correlation between them and aspects of the offense outside of running back.

And there's always the many benefits of playing against Jameis Winston:

41 sacks - 3rd
23 interceptions - 1st
12 fumbles - 3rd

Defenses against the Bucs have a higher ceiling than any other team as long as Jameis is on the field, which he will be this week despite dealing with a thumb fract