DFS Pivot Plays week 3 2018

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal

Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.

Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.

Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.
 

Quarterback


Chalk

Patrick Mahomes $7,000 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I wrote about Mahomes in my Stack Em Up article. The kid is playing lights out right now and considering the weapons he has on this offense, there is a good chance he has a phenomenal year. Through two games, he has thrown for 582 yards and 10 touchdowns, while attempting just 55 passes. Eventually I think there will be some regression in the touchdown department, but maybe not this week. The 49ers rank 18th in DVOA, having allowed 591 passing yards and five passing touchdowns this season. The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate and this game has the highest over/under, so aside from the favorable situation, Vegas is projecting this to have plenty of fantasy goodness. Hence, why Mahomes is expected to be one of the most, if not the most popular quarterback play this weekend, and rightfully so.

Pivot

Drew Brees $6,400 at Atlanta Falcons
Brees faces a team that he is very familiar with this week. He has faced the Falcons 25 times throughout his career and has fared well against them, averaging 306.28 passing yards per game and tossing 46 touchdowns. In six of his last eight games against them, Brees has topped 300 passing yards. So far this season, he has attempted at least 35 passes in each game and has tossed five passing touchdowns. The Falcons are currently ranked 23rd in DVOA and are dealing with injuries on their defense, making this a favorable matchup for Brees. The Saints have a healthy implied team total of 25.25, so they should produce some fantasy points and Brees should be a part of that production. He will garner ownership, but I believe he will be far less owned than Mahomes in just as good of a spot.

 

 

Running Backs


Chalk

Corey Clement $4,300 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles did not practice on Friday and are both trending in the right direction as far as their availability for Sunday is concerned. I have been preparing all week long as if they were not playing and if that ends up being the case, Clement could be the most popular running back of the week. He faces a Colts defense that is yielding 29.1 DKFP per game and has allowed a combined 302 yards, 22 receptions, and one touchdown to opposing backs. The Eagles are playing at home and are seven point favorites in this contest, so this should be a favorable game script for the Eagles running attack, and even if it is a close game or the Eagles fall behind, Clement’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield will keep him in the game. At this price and the potential workload he might receive, it is tough to pass up on this chalk. In fact, I plan on eating the chalk with him this week.

Pivot

Lamar Miller $5,000 vs. New York Giants
If you are feeling frisky and plan to fade Clement, I will try to interest you in some Lamar Miller. I wrote about him in the Flex Targets article and remain keen on him this week. He has been underwhelming thus far, but this really sets up for a favorable situation for Miller. For starters, the Giants are missing some key players on the defensive side of the ball. In addition, this defense has surrendered over 90 rushing yards each game and has allowed 13 receptions for 120 yards, while also yielding three total touchdowns. They have also given up 30.9 DKFP per game this season. Lastly, the Texans are home favorites, so the game script plays into his favor. Miller is averaging 18.5 touches per game, which is a healthy amount. He may not have the ceiling he once had, but still offers plenty of upside in comparison to his salary. I will have exposure to him this weekend whether Clement is in my lineup or not.

 

 

 

 

Wide Receivers


Chalk

Tyreek Hill $8,500 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Hill was the chalk I avoided last week and it really did not hurt me as much as it could have. I mean, he did have a solid game, catching five balls for 90 yards and a touchdown. Once again I am expecting him to be one of the more popular receivers of the week, and rightfully so. This is a really good spot for him as the 49ers are currently allowing the ninth most DKFP per game, and have surrendered 415 receiving yards with three receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs this season. The one-on-one matchup against K'Waun Williams is one that favors Hill, as he has a 24 percent advantage rating per PFF. Hill has become one of Mahomes favorite targets and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, Hill always has slate breaking upside due to his big play ability, making him a very scary fade. That said, if he has another game like the one last week, it really will not have much of an impact on you if you fade him in tournaments and could put you at an advantage if you pivot to the right guy.

Pivot

DeAndre Hopkins $8,300 vs. New York Giants
Hopkins is someone I think may start gaining some traction now that Eli Apple has been ruled out because this will impact the Giants pass defense. That said, I still think he will be far less owned than Hill and this is a spot where I think he can easily outperform Hill. The one-on-one matchup against Janoris Jenkins may not appear to be all that great on paper, but according to PFF, Hopkins has a 45 percent advantage rating. He remains DeShaun Watson’s go-to receiver with 22 targets in the season, which is good for 36 percent of the target share. Hopkins is still one of the best receivers in the league and the volume is consistently high, which provides him with both a high floor and tremendous ceiling. At a fraction of the ownership, I will take my chances with Hopkins in a situation that he should have no problem being productive in.

 

 

 

 

Tight Ends


Chalk

Eric Ebron $3,400 at Philadelphia Eagles
Jack Doyle has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Eagles which should open some snap opportunities for Ebron. So far through two games, Ebron has played in just 38 percent of the offensive snaps and accounts for just 10 percent of the target share, but has managed to score a touchdown in each of those contests. The Colts face an Eagles defense that allowed three receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown to O.J. Howard last week. That said, they have been stingy on defense, so I would not place too much emphasis on that. However, this is a favorable potential game script as the Colts are underdogs in this matchup and could be chasing points. This is too cheap of a price for Ebron in a situation where he could be on the field for a large portion of the game.

Pivot

Austin Hooper $2,900 vs. New Orleans Saints
I have written about Hooper pretty much all week and I talked about my interest in him on the Chalk Talk Podcast. So far this season, Hooper has been pretty active, playing in 87 percent of the offensive snaps and accounting for 13 percent of the targets share (second highest in Atlanta). In addition, he is tied with Julio Jones for the most red zone targets on the team. Hooper found the end zone last week and this could be another week where he has a shot to score. He has a four percent advantage rating in this matchup according to PFF. This game has the potential to be a shootout and the Saints have been generous through the air this season, so it is setting up to be a good spot for Hooper at a very low price.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal