DFS Pivot Plays week 2 2018

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal

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Week 2: Pivot Plays
By: Armando Marsal

Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.
Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.
Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.

 

 

Quarterback


Chalk

Ben Roethlisberger $6,900 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Roethlisberger is likely going to be the highest owned quarterback this week, if not one of the highest. This really sets up for a bounce back game against the Chiefs, who are really hurting in the secondary. Like I mentioned in the Stack Em Up article this week, Kansas City was the third worst in DVOA against the pass last season and surrendered the fourth most passing yards in the league, while giving up 23 passing touchdowns. Things are not much better for this secondary entering this season, they came into the year ranked 28th by PFF and in Week 1 they surrendered 424 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to the Chargers offense. That alone is a great reason to consider Big Ben, but there is also the fact that he plays far better at home than he does on the road. In addition, this game has the highest over/under on the slate, so generally that will draw ownership. I will be eating some of this chalk this weekend, because the situation is very favorable for Roethlisberger. He is dealing with an elbow injury, which is something to keep an eye on, but it should not prevent him from being a full-go.

Pivot

Tom Brady $6,500 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Brady has a tough matchup this week, in fact he faces the top secondary in the league. That said, if there is any coach and quarterback duo that can find a way to get it done in a situation like this, it is Bill Belichick and Brady. There are a couple of things that stand out to me in this matchup. For starters, the Patriots backfield is filled with injuries, so they are going to have to rely on Brady’s arm. Another thing that I find interesting is that the Patriots ran play action plays 28 percent of the time last season, which was the third highest of any offense, and this is where Jacksonville struggled the most. Lastly, in two games against the Jaguars last year, he combined for 648 passing yards and four touchdowns, while not throwing an interception. People will be off of Brady due to the matchup his week, but at this discounted price he provides plenty of upside, even in a tough situation. Keep an eye on the weather here, if it is too bad, other quarterbacks in this range that I find interesting are Alex Smith & Jimmy Garoppolo.

 

 

 

 

Running Backs


Chalk

James Conner $6,700 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Conner chalk smashed last week as the young running back combined for 192 yards and two touchdowns on 36 touches. He was peppered with six targets, which was good for 15 percent of the team’s target share. This should be another busy week for Conner and the matchup is one that favors him, especially with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. The Chiefs last week, allowed 14 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown to the Chargers running backs. Despite a price increase of $1,200, he will likely be the most popular back this week and rightfully so. He runs behind a good offensive line and game script should not be an issue with him because of his ability to handle pass catching and running duties efficiently.

Pivot

Dalvin Cook $6,500 at Green Bay Packers
Cook is very appealing to me, especially in tournaments where I expect him to go virtually unowned. The offensive line for the Vikings is concerning and it was apparent that they are having trouble creating holes for the run game, but Cook’s involvement in the pass last week (seven targets) has me very optimistic about his ability to be productive even if the running game is not on point this weekend. This is a favorable matchup for Cook who faces a Packers defense that allowed over 100 rushing yards to the Bears running backs in Week 1, to go along with nine receptions. Cook touched the ball 21 times last week and should once again receive a healthy amount of volume. He has tournament breaking upside, making him an interesting GPP option this weekend. Another back in this range that I have interest in that could be low owned is Kareem Hunt @ $6,200.

 

 

 

 

Wide Receivers


Chalk

Tyreek Hill $7,600 at Pittsburgh Steelers
TyFreek, as some may refer to him as, had a monster performance last week, grabbing seven passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns, while also scoring on a 91-yard punt returns, finishing the day with 45.3 DKFP. That performance alone will naturally increase the interest that he will receive the following week. In addition to that, this game currently has the highest over/under of the slate and both teams have healthy implied team totals. Hill will clearly be a huge part of the Chiefs offense and his role on special teams increases his upside even more. He is expected to see coverage from Mike Hilton, a matchup that Hill has a 17 percent advantage rating in, according to PFF. This game should be a shootout and the potential game flow should favor Hill this weekend, so there are plenty of reasons to like him.

Pivot

DeAndre Hopkins $8,000 at Tennessee Titans
Hopkins could go overlooked this weekend because he has been battling a foot injury all week, limiting him in practice (does not appear to be serious) and there are so many good options in this price range. Last week, he caught 8-of-11 targets for 78 yards, which is average for his standards, so this could also play a role in his ownership. This is exactly when you want to plug him into your tournament lineups. He is expected to see one-on-one coverage from Malcolm Butler, who is a solid defender, but Hopkins still has a healthy 33 percent advantage rating in this matchup per PFF. Will Fuller is expected back this week, which helps Hopkins as defense will also have to focus in on him. Last week, the Titans surrendered 201 yards and two touchdowns to the Dolphins receivers, so the Texans duo could be far more of a challenge for them. Hopkins also has a good track record against the Titans throughout his career, averaging 101 receiving yards and 6.6 receptions per game, while finding the pay dirt six times. Sign me up!

 

 

 

 

Tight Ends


Chalk

Jared Cook $3,800 at Denver Broncos
Cook blew up in Week 1, catching 9-of-12 targets for 180 yards, scoring 30 DKFP. This matchup is very similar to the one last week as the Broncos have strong outside coverage, but tend to be vulnerable in the middle of the field, where Cook can do a lot of damage. Last week Denver gave up 116 yards to the Seahawks tight ends, so I expect the Raiders to game plan around this weakness. It will be tough to repeat last week’s performance for Cook, but this is a matchup that he should be able to exploit and his price remains too cheap. I expect him to be one of the chalkier plays this week, but with good reason.

Pivot

David Njoku $3,000 at New Orleans Saints
Njoku did not have a great Week 1, but there are some positives to take from last week’s game. He played in 88 percent of the snaps and received seven targets, which accounted for 18 percent of the target share for the Browns. The Saints defense was exposed last week, allowing 417 yards through the air and they are heavy favorites in this contest, so I anticipate that the Browns will have to throw the ball, making this a favorable situation for Njoku. He has displayed his freakish athleticism in the past, so there is certainly a nice ceiling here for him. With some of the appealing options in this price range, I do not think many people will flock Njoku’s way this week, making him a very nice tournament pivot.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal