Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 18 2018
Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL playoffs have arrived. We have four games on the board this week and based on the Vegas numbers, it does not appear that it will be a high scoring weekend. Being that there are fewer options during the post season and considering the slate at hand, I will talk about the top two stacks that I will be considering this week. Let’s jump right into it.
If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option.
Game Over/Under: 48
Team Implied Points: 23.5
Andrew Luck $6,400 had a very strong season, tossing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. He had tons of success against Houston in their two meetings, throwing for a combined 863 passing yards and six touchdowns, scoring over 27 DKFP in each of those contests. The Texans really struggled against the pass down the stretch, yielding 300+ passing yards in all but two of their finals six games, as well as 11 passing touchdowns. They finished the year ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass and allowing 19 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. The Texans can stuff the run, so I expect the Colts to pick on their biggest vulnerability, which is stopping the pass. Luck should be able to pick this defense apart like he did in his two meetings during the regular season, making him my top QB play of the weekend.
T.Y. Hilton $7,800 is dealing with an ankle injury, but is fully expected to play this weekend. He has absolutely dominated in this matchup in recent meetings. In his last five games against the Texans, he has topped 100 receiving yards four times and has scored three touchdowns. This season, he has caught 13-of-18 targets for 314 yards against Houston, including his 12 catch 199 yard game against them on the road. Shareece Wright, who grades out below average, is expected to cover Hilton this weekend, a matchup that Hilton has a 13 percent advantage rating in, according to Pro Football Focus. While I do have minor concerns about the ankle injury, it does not change the fact that Hilton offers one of the higher ceilings on the slate and draws a plus matchup.
Eric Ebron $5,200 draws a nice matchup this week, one he has had success in twice this season. In two games against the Texans, he caught 9-of-18 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns, scoring at least 15 DKFP in each game. The Texans defense struggled all year against opposing tight ends, allowing 90 receptions (3rd most), 1,013 receiving yards (8th most), and eight receiving touchdowns (tied 4th most) to the position, while yielding the fourth most DKFP per game. Ebron has been one of the bigger surprises this season, leading the team and all tight ends in the league in touchdowns, as well as, finishing fifth in yards among his position. Luck looked his way 110 times this season, so volume has not been a problem and in this matchup, Ebron should have no trouble finding success.
Secondary Options: Nyheim Hines is someone to consider in a Colts stack if you are trying to differentiate. He comes at a fair price and averaged 5.1 targets per game this season, coming down with 63 grabs. The Texans allowed six receiving touchdowns to opposing backs this season, which is tied for most in the NFL. Dontrelle Inman is dealing with shoulder/finger injuries and is listed as questionable. If he gives it a go, he can be considered as a flier paired up with Luck. Inman was peppered with 39 targets in the final eight games of the season, seeing fewer than four targets in a single game just once during that stretch. Chester Rogers would benefit if Inman is out or limited, making him a sneak GPP stack option if that was the case.
My favorite option: Luck/Hilton
Game Over/Under: 41
Team Implied Points: 23.75
Mitchell Trubisky $6,200 had a nice stretch of good games earlier in the season, then just came back to reality and was hit or miss. This week he draws a very good matchup against an Eagles defense that surrendered 4,602 passing yards (2nd most) and 22 passing touchdowns to opposing signal callers, while yielding 20.7 DKFP per game, which was seventh most in the league. To close out the season, this unit surrendered over 325 passing yards in three of their last four games. This defense funnels to the pass, so I expect the Bears offense to take advantage of that and let Trubisky throw it more than he normally does. I like the upside he offers this week and the matchup at hand, making him my second favorite quarterback on the board.
Tarik Cohen $5,400 accounted for 21 percent of the target share in Chicago during the regular season, averaging 5.7 targets per game. He finished top six in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns among running backs. This is relevant information because he faces off against the Eagles, who had trouble defending pass catching backs during the regular season. This unit allowed 110 receptions (tied 2nd most) for 844 receiving yards (6th most) and four touchdowns (tied 3rd most) to the position. Cohen should have no trouble finding success in this content and considering his solidified role in the passing game, he is someone that can be trusted in all formats this weekend. The Bears have a healthy implied team total, and it would not be surprising to see Cohen be a part of their scoring this weekend.
Allen Robinson $5,600 was inconsistent for most of the season, but did receive a healthy dosage of targets (94), which was good for 22 percent of the target share. This is a phenomenal matchup against the Eagles who surrendered 239 receptions (3rd most), 3,082 receiving yards (3rd most), and 16 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs this year, while allowing the third most DKFP per game. He is expected to draw coverage from Avonte Maddox, who has an average grade on Pro Football Focus, a matchup that Robinson has a seven percent advantage rating in. He closed out the season with at least seven targets in the last four games, and with that type of volume in a matchup as soft as this, it will be very tough for Robinson not to be productive.
Secondary Options: Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller can all also be considered in a stack, but they are not priority options for me. Eagles were actually solid against tight ends, ranking seventh in DVOA against the position, putting Burton in a tough spot. That said, he still offers upside and is talented. Not to mention he plays his former team, so if you are into narratives, that is something you consider. Full disclosure I do not believe in narratives.
My favorite option: Trubisky/Cohen/Robinson
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal