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Sleepers And Busts 2022
Let's take a look at a sleeper or bust candidate from all 32 teams in the NFL.
Bust: Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers -- After Trey Sermon received the hype in the offseason, it was fellow rookie Mitchell who emerged as the lead back in San Francisco, and one of the breakout running backs in all of football. Raheem Mostert missed the entire season and it was Mitchell, not Sermon, who operated as the lead back. Mitchell averaged 18.8 carries per game last season, while rushing for 963 yards and five touchdowns on 207 attempts. However, despite the stellar rookie season, there are some concerns entering 2022. For starters, even though Mostert is now in Miami, this San Francisco offense led by Kyle Shanahan continues to use multiple running backs. In fact, the 49ers have had a different leading rusher in each of the past five seasons (Mitchell, Jeff Wilson, Mostert, Matt Breida, and Carlos Hyde). Mitchell should see more competition for carries from Sermon, who will be in a better position to succeed in Year 2. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel is going to command carries. Samuel averaged around four carries per game on the year but that involvement increased as the season progressed. From 11 on (including the playoffs), Samuel was responsible for around 24 percent of the team's rushing attempts and there is no way they stop giving him the football after his incredible 2021 season. And if Trey Lance is under center this season, perhaps even more carries could be taken away from Mitchell. Lance played meaningful snaps in three games last season and during those contests, the rookie averaged 10.3 rushing attempts per game. And of his 31 rushes during those games, 19 were designed. So if Lance is under center this season, Mitchell could be competing with three different players for carries. Between that and the fact that Mitchell doesn't offer much as a pass-catcher (19 receptions, 13.7 routes per game), I have some concerns.
Sleeper: Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals -- Moore is the definition of a post-hype sleeper. After the Cardinals drafted him last year, there was a ton of buzz around his fit with the offense. However, playing time was an issue, as Arizona had DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green ahead of him on the depth chart. Moore finished the year playing 37 percent of the offensive snaps, but with Kirk and Green no longer in Arizona, he should become a full-time player. He still does fit this horizontal offense really well, as he can be used on quick passes and screens to make plays after the catch. And quarterback Kyler Murray finished the season attempting 78 screens, the fourth-most in the league, despite missing three games. During his rookie season, Moore averaged the third-most yards after the catch per reception among wideouts (8.1), but only averaged -0.1 yards before the catch per reception. Yes, you read that right. If he can get some more work down the field, a Year-2 breakout is fully possible, especially after the DeAndre Hopkins suspension.
Bust: Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks -- Fant goes from a crowded, low-volume passing offense in Denver to. ... To a crowded, low-volume passing offense in Seattle. Oh, and Drew Lock is still likely to be his quarterback. The talent isn't in question, as Fant can make a ton of plays, especially after the catch. But with Russell Wilson gone, the Seahawks will likely be even more run-heavy than they have been in the past, while both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will still command plenty of targets when they do throw the football.
Sleeper: Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams -- After Cam Akers' season-ending injury, Henderson was thrust into the starting role for the Rams. He was very strong, averaging nearly 14 fantasy points per game. And before dealing with some injuries, Henderson was playing around 90 percent of the snaps very often for the Rams. Akers returned to end the season and was the starting running back but it is fair to wonder how much work he will get this season. Regardless, Henderson should also be viewed as an elite handcuff in fantasy.
Sleeper: Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings -- I was so excited about Smith entering the 2021 campaign but a torn meniscus ended his season before it began. However, heading into 2022, I am going right back to the well. Smith is still an immensely talented player, and when we last saw him to end the 2020 season, he was posting TE1 numbers. In fact, during Weeks 14-7, Kyle Rudolph was sidelined and during that span, Smith was the TE4 in fantasy, averaging just under 13 fantasy points per game. He also ranked second among all tight ends in end zone targets during that span with four, while Smith ran a route on nearly 89 percent of Minnesota's passing snaps. He was also eighth among all tight ends in routes run during that four-game stretch, despite only playing around half the snaps in Week 14. Smith can make a ton of huge plays, as his 2020 yards per target (8.49) and yards per reception (12.17) marks suggest. Minnesota still has Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but the absence of Tyler Conklin should lead to Smith being a full-time player going forward. And with a new regime, we could see more passing volume from this offense.
Sleeper: Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears -- You, the reader, actually scored the same number of touchdowns as Kmet did a season ago. Unless you play in the NFL, in which case, can you provide us with some behind the scenes fantasy information? Yes, Kmet failed to find the end zone last season, but the absence of Jimmy Graham can't hurt his 2022 potential. While Graham only logged 23 percent of the offensive snaps last year, he made his presence felt in the red zone. Graham had six end-zone targets last year, while just over 27 percent of his targets came in the end zone, the highest rate in football. Kmet already saw a solid 17 percent target share last season, the sixth-highest rate among tight ends, and now Allen Robinson is gone. The Bears have arguably the worst group of pass-catchers in the NFL, which should lead to pretty consistent volume for Kmet as he enters Year 3 in the league.
Sleeper: Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers -- For the first time since the 2013 season, Aaron Rodgers will not be throwing passes to Davante Adams. The best QB-WR duo in the NFL has been split up with Adams' move to Las Vegas. Green Bay already had a weak group of wide receivers with Adams on the roster, which means players like Lazard will have to step up. A huge part of Rodgers' game is the trust and timing between his receivers, and while no one outside of maybe Jordy Nelson had a better rapport with Rodgers than Adams, Lazard might be relied on most in 2022. We saw Rodgers have plenty of confidence in Lazard down the stretch last season, and solid production followed. Over the final five weeks of the year, Lazard was the WR8 in PPR leagues, averaging a touchdown per game during that span. He also saw six end-zone targets over those final five weeks, tied with Adams for the fifth-most among all receivers. Now Lazard isn't going to finish as a top-10 fantasy receiver, but based on where he is being drafted, he doesn't have to even finish as a top-30 receiver, let alone top-10.
Bust: Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions -- Williams is an exceptional talent and is going to be a tremendous player in the NFL. However, I am tempering expectations for fantasy in year one. For starters, it isn't guaranteed he starts the season. But secondly, I question the fit with Jared Goff, who ranked last in intended air yards per attempt (6.4) and completed air yards per pass (4.5). Meanwhile, just 9.1 percent of his pass attempts were of the deep variety, which was the sixth-lowest rate in football.
Sleeper: Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants -- Toney showed serious flashes as a rookie but injuries hindered what could have been a fantastic inaugural NFL campaign. Among all qualified receivers from last season, Toney ranked 11th in yards per route run (2.14), and showed the ability to win against both press and man coverage. He's dealt with numerous injuries throughout his collegiate career (and so far in the NFL), but if he can stay healthy, Toney has a massive ceiling, especially with a new regime in New York. New head coach Brian Daboll will be way more creative than Jason Garrett and his archaic approach. The Giants were among the bottom-5 teams in pre-snap motion last season, but expect that to change with Daboll in town. Look for the Giants to move Toney all over the formation and find ways to get him the football.
Bust: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys -- This one comes with a caveat. If Elliott remains a top-12 running back in most rankings/ADP, he'll be a bust for me. But if he falls to the fourth round of fantasy drafts, I'm still willing to give him a look. While he did battle through injury last year, you can tell that Elliott continues to lose burst. On a per-game basis, Elliott was just the RB15, as his efficiency continues to fall. He's been under 4.5 yards per carry in each of his last two seasons, while the explosive runs have fallen off a cliff. Despite playing all 17 games last year, Elliott finished with just six runs of 15 yards or more, which tied for 28th among all running backs. Zeke also ranked just 43rd among qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.73). Meanwhile, Tony Pollard looked much more explosive, as he recorded five more runs of 15-plus yards than Elliott on over 100 fewer rushing attempts. While it seems extremely unlikely that Dallas just starts playing Pollard over Elliott, there is a chance of more of a split backfield, especially with Elliott getting older.
Sleeper: Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles -- Sanders is one of my top post-hype sleepers in 2022. During his three seasons in the NFL, Sanders has shown some serious flashes. He has been extremely efficient during his NFL career, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, while ranking seventh, 13th and 15th in yards per touch. He's truly been one of the best running backs in football when it comes to ripping off long runs. In 2021, 35 percent of Sanders' rushing attempts went for 15 yards or more, good for the sixth-best rate among qualified running backs. And in 2020 and 2019, Sanders ranked 11th and 9th in breakaway run rate. So the talent is clearly there. In 2021, he just had awful touchdown luck, failing to find the end zone on 163 touches. Quarterback Jalen Hurts led the team with 13 carries inside the 5-yard line, which was also the seventh-most in all of football. Sanders only saw five such carries. He missed five games last season but when he was healthy, especially during the second half of the season, the Philadelphia Eagles finally committed to him as the lead back. From Weeks 1-7, Sanders only averaged nine carries per game, as the Eagles were insanely pass-heavy during that stretch, calling pass over 61 percent of the time. However, during Weeks 11-6, Sanders averaged 15 rushing attempts per game, and that was while leaving both Weeks 12 and 16 early with injuries, logging 30 and 33 percent of the snaps. From Week 8 on last year, Philadelphia called run at the highest rate in football (59.1 percent).
Bust: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders -- Gibson has plenty of upside as a player but Washington doesn't seem convinced that he can be a do-it-all running back. The team made it a priority to bring back J.D. McKissic, who is one of the game's best pass-catching and pass-protecting running backs. The Commanders also drafted Brian Robinson in the third round of April's draft after hosting visits for multiple running backs leading up to the draft. And it is even more concerning when you consider that Washington didn't exactly have a ton of draft capital.
Sleeper: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons -- Though he was only drafted in the fifth round, Allgeier lands in an advantageous backfield for potential fantasy success, especially after the Falcons released veteran running back Mike Davis. Allgeier is a really good fit for this offense, as his 213 rushing attempts out of zone schemes last year were the fourth-most in college football, while Atlanta runs a ton of zone running schemes. Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 216 rushing attempts out of zone, which would have led the entire NFL. Over 74 percent of both players' carries came out of zone. Allgeier finished second in the nation in yards after contact last season and likely operates as the early-down back over Patterson, especially given his 5-11-, 224-pound frame. It would not at all surprise me to see Allgeier take over as Atlanta's lead back within the first few weeks of the season.
Sleeper: Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Sticking with the rookie running backs, White could make some noise in year one. He'll have every opportunity to earn the backup role behind Leonard Fournette but if anything happens to the veteran running back, White could be a league-winning player. A fantastic pass-catcher during his time at Arizona State, White sported an extremely healthy 18.9 percent college target share, while his 2.25 yards per route run from a season ago ranked fourth-best among all running backs in the nation. Meanwhile, we know Tom Brady heavily targets running backs in the passing game. This past season, Fournette averaged six targets per game, while his 49 targets as the first read led all running backs. White is an incredible pass-catching running back who can win against linebackers and even some cornerbacks in coverage.
Sleeper: Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints -- Winston led the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.64), but it is obviously skewed by the fact that he threw five touchdowns on 20 pass attempts in Week 1. And then Winston only played about 6.5 games. He isn't going to finish as a top-10 quarterback but I do like his potential in this new Saints' offense. Suddenly, New Orleans has some strong pass-catchers with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. Winston also provided a very strong rushing floor, rushing for at least 25 yards in four games, including two contests with 40 rushing yards. We could see the Saints improve on their pass rate with more receivers in town, especially after sporting the third-lowest pass rate in football a season ago (51.47 percent).
Sleeper: D'Onta Foreman, RB, Carolina Panthers -- After working his way back from a torn Achilles, Foreman helped fill in for Derrick Henry in Tennessee last season. He recorded three different 100-yard games and averaged nearly 5.0 yards per touch, while breaking a tackle every 12.1 rushing attempts, which was good enough for 17th in all of football. He is an immediate upgrade over Chuba Hubbard, who was one of the least efficient running backs in football last season, averaging 3.56 yards per carry, while ranking outside of the top-45 running backs in yards per touch (4.0). Hubbard averaged around 16 touches per game with Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup and if McCaffrey is forced to miss time again, that role should go to Foreman, who is a better player.
Bust: Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots -- Harris opened the 2021 season as the lead back in New England. However, once rookie Rhamondre Stevenson got acclimated, this backfield became close to a split. In fact, from Week 5 on, Stevenson averaged 12 carries per game, not too far behind Harris' 13.9 carries per game during that span. Harris finished the year as the RB14 but it was largely buoyed by his 15 rushing touchdowns. His 14 carries from inside the five-yard line ranked third in the league but it is fair to wonder how much of that role Stevenson sees in year two. Meanwhile, we know he isn't going to catch many passes, especially with pass-catching specialist James White back. Brandon Bolden led this backfield in routes run (209), while Harris only averaged about eight routes per game. It is also fair to wonder if Stevenson is simply the better running back, as he broke a tackle every 8.3 rushing attempts, the second-best mark in football. After averaging 13.5 carries per game in a season where Stevenson didn't really emerge until around Week 5, Harris isn't likely to see more carries in 2022, especially if rookie running back Pierre Strong carves out a role.
Bust: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins -- Waddle enjoyed a tremendous rookie season. In fact, it was a record-breaking rookie campaign, as Waddle's 104 receptions were the most for a receiver in their rookie season in NFL history. After making a ton of splash plays at Alabama, Waddle's role changed in Miami, as he was used much closer to the line of scrimmage, as Tua Tagovailoa simply force-fed him with high percentage targets. His aDOT in college was 11.7 but as the clear top option in the passing game in Miami, that number fell to 6.92, which was the 12th-lowest mark among all receivers with at least 50 targets. Of course, the volume was great, as Waddle saw a 24.8 percent target share, while his 124 targets as the first read were the ninth-most among all receivers. Heading into 2022, that volume will take a hit with Tyreek Hill in town. And because he wasn't used downfield very often, it is difficult to expect tremendous efficiency on less volume. Waddle continues to come off draft boards as a top-20 wide receiver and I believe that is a mistake.
Bust: Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills -- Knox enjoyed a third-year breakout in 2021, hauling in 49 passes for 587 yards and nine touchdowns, finishing as the TE11. However, it is pretty easy to make an argument why you should avoid him in 2022. For starters, despite scoring nine touchdowns, he still only finished as the TE11, which isn't even a major accomplishment when it comes to the tight end position. Just over 10 percent of his targets came in the end zone, while his 10 end-zone targets were the third-most at the position. He still only averaged 4.7 targets and 3.2 receptions per game and now Buffalo added O.J. Howard to the tight end room. In this offense, Knox will have a handful of top-5 scoring weeks, but there will also be plenty of weeks where he finishes as the TE29.
Sleeper: Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets -- It was a bit of a lost rookie campaign for Wilson, who struggled, but also struggled with a shoulder injury. He finished the year with an adjusted completion percentage of 67 percent, which was the third-worst mark among all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks last season. Meanwhile, his 69.7 passer rating was also third-worst in the league. The quarterback position is so deep that you likely won't need to draft or start Wilson in fantasy, but there is some sleeper appeal here. For starters, he showed some signs after returning from injury last season, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in two of his final seven games. He showcased that immense arm talent and added plenty of points via rushing, averaging nearly 24 rushing yards per game during that span. The Jets did a great job of surrounding Wilson with talent, adding Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, CJ Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in the offseason, while Elijah Moore will be back following his late-season absence.
Sleeper: David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns -- Njoku hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but 2022 could easily be his best season yet. For starters, Austin Hooper is gone, which should lead to way fewer three tight end sets. Last season, the Browns operated out of 13 personnel (three tight ends) a league-leading 17 percent of the time. They won't come close to that rate this season, which should help Njoku play more out of the slot, an area he operated out of just over 31 percent of the time last season. It is entirely possible that Njoku is the second option in this passing game behind Amari Cooper and new quarterback Deshaun Watson could be looking his way quite a bit, especially in the red zone. During his final three seasons with the Texans, tight ends accounted for nearly 24 percent of the passing touchdowns from Watson.
Sleeper: Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers -- Through two NFL seasons, Claypool has been all over the place. And as a result, so has his ADP. Last season, Claypool was being drafted as a top-25 wideout, but now he's coming off the board after the top-40 receivers. His sophomore year wasn't great but even with more competition for targets in Pittsburgh, Claypool could bounce back in 2022. For starters, the third year is historically when wide receivers really start to break out. Secondly, we could see Claypool move into the slot more, which would be a massive mismatch more often than not. Last season, Claypool only lined up in the slot 19.5 percent of the time, while operating out of the slot 23.4 percent of the time in 2020. But when Claypool has had spike weeks, his production has often come from the slot. In Week 5 of last year, Claypool had 5-130-1, with two of those catches for 77 yards and a score coming from the slot. And during his breakout Week 5 against Philadelphia during his rookie season, Claypool recorded 110 yards and three touchdowns. 47 yards and two of those scores came while he was aligned inside. And with Ben Roethlisberger gone, Claypool might even see some downfield targets, as just 9.4 percent of his pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more last season (12th-lowest rate), while only Jared Goff averaged fewer intended air yards per pass attempt (6.7). Consider Claypool a strong post-hype sleeper entering Year 3.
Sleeper: Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals -- With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins getting all of the attention, many have forgotten about Boyd. However, he is a huge part of what makes this the best trio of receivers in the league. I'll admit, his numbers weren't great last season, especially when Higgins and Chase were active, averaging just over three receptions per game. However, consider that to start the season, the Bengals were easing Joe Burrow back from his 2020 injuries. In Weeks 1-8, Cincinnati posted the 11th-lowest pass rate in the NFL (56.9 percent). However, during Weeks 9-18, the Bengals climbed to 12th in overall passing rate (59.5 percent). And from Weeks 9-17 (the Bengals rested starters Week 18) Boyd was the WR27 in fantasy football, giving the Bengals three top-30 fantasy wideouts during that stretch.
Sleeper: Devin Duvernay, WR, Baltimore Ravens -- After the trade of Marquise Brown, the Ravens are pretty thin at wide receiver. Yes, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman should see plenty of targets but Duvernay is a player Baltimore likes and he should have a larger role heading into the 2022 season. Duvernay could also see a carry or two per game, especially if JK Dobbins or Gus Edwards open the season on the PUP list.
Sleeper: Tim Patrick, WR, Denver Broncos -- Patrick has been one of the most underrated wideouts in the game over the last few seasons. His 99.8 passer rating when targeted last season led all Denver receivers, and was good enough for 21st among all receivers with at least 85 targets. Patrick also paced the Broncos in end-zone targets (eight) and despite playing alongside Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy for much of the 2021 season, he still averaged nearly nine PPR points per game in the 10 games all three wideouts played together. Entering the 2022 campaign, there is a lot of hype surrounding the Denver offense, largely due to the presence of Russell Wilson. Patrick could mesh well with Wilson, as 12.9 percent of his targets came from the deep left portion of the field, which was the 14th-highest rate in all of football. Meanwhile, Wilson has shown tendencies of throwing to that part of the field, as 13.4 percent of Wilson's passes went to the deep left part of the field, which led all quarterbacks. Obviously, throwing to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf had a lot to do with that, but Patrick can make plays down the field, as he averaged 10.0 yards before the catch per reception last year (20th). Sutton and Jeudy are getting the hype but don't sleep on Patrick.
Bust: Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders -- Jacobs has been very solid for the Raiders, but his fantasy production has mostly been due to strong volume. He averaged over 18 touches per game last season, while averaging 20.4 and 20.1 touches per game in 2020 and 2019. However, Jacobs hasn't exactly been the most efficient back in football, as he's ranked 37th, 54th and 23rd in yards per touch through three seasons. Jacobs also doesn't rip off a ton of long runs, as he's ranked 54th and 53rd in explosive rush rate over the last two seasons (15.4 percent and 17.6 percent). The Raiders declined his fifth-year player option and immediately following that decision, the team traded up to select running back Zamir White in the draft. And during the offseason, new head coach Josh McDaniels has discussed the value of having multiple running backs and the team backed that up by adding Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, while Kenyan Drake will be back. In 10 games alongside Drake last year, Jacobs averaged 16.3 touches per game, compared to nearly 21 touches per game with Drake inactive. If the volume goes down, I worry that Jacobs won't have the efficiency to make up for it.
Sleeper: Isaiah Spiller, RB, Los Angeles Chargers -- The Chargers have been looking for a nice complement to Austin Ekeler for a few seasons now. Joshua Kelley hasn't been the answer and Justin Jackson is no longer with the team. Spiller is a well-rounded prospect and is just 20-years old. He should easily win the backup running back job but will also get a handful of carries per game in one of the league's most explosive offenses.
Sleeper: Ronald Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs -- I know, I know. Jones lost his job to Leonard Fournette in Tampa Bay last year so why should we have high hopes in Kansas City? Well, for starters, he is being selected very late in fantasy drafts. And secondly, while Tyreek Hill is gone, this Chiefs' offense is still going to be good. Jones will likely back up Clyde Edwards-Helaire but what if he is more than just a secondary running back? Over his first two NFL seasons, Edwards-Helaire has just 10 total goal-line carries, and with Jones' having limitations as a pass-catcher, it is entirely possible that Jones gets more of the early-down and short-yardage work, while CEH operates as the pass-catching running back, a role he thrived in during his time at LSU. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
Sleeper: Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans -- The Texans backfield is wide open and Pierce has the opportunity to emerge. Head coach Lovie Smith wants to run the football and we saw Rex Burkhead become very fantasy relevant down the stretch in this role last season. In fact, from Weeks 11-18, Burkhead averaged nearly 17 touches per game, while finishing as the RB20 in fantasy during that stretch. Pierce didn't see a massive workload during his time at Florida but that isn't because he isn't capable, as he runs with great pad level and can break tackles. Don't be surprised if he's Houston's lead back sooner rather than later.
Sleeper: Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars -- Engram has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career but has a fresh start in Jacksonville. He'll be in a Doug Pederson offense that has heavily targeted the tight end position over the course of his career, which could help him return to relevance. Since 2016, tight ends have accounted for 30 percent of the targets in Pederson's Philadelphia offenses, the highest rate in the NFL and well above the league average of 20 percent.
Sleeper: Robert Woods, WR, Tennessee Titans -- Woods suffered a torn ACL halfway through the 2021 season but appears on track to return for Week 1, albeit with a new team. The Titans are going to run the football at one of the highest rates in football when Derrick Henry is on the field but Woods could dominate targets when this team throws the football. He saw a near 22 percent target share in Los Angeles last year, despite playing alongside Cooper Kupp. A 22-25 percent target share in Tennessee is absolutely in reach.
Sleeper: Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts -- Head coach Frank Reich stated that he would draft Hines on his fantasy team. Need I say more? All jokes aside, Hines should be more involved this season, especially with Matt Ryan in town. There is already talk about Hines being more involved in the passing game and given the state of the wide receiver depth chart in Indianapolis, it makes sense. Ryan checked it down nine percent of the time last year in Atlanta, above the league average rate of seven percent. No running back operated out of the slot more than Hines this past season (23.2 percent), a number that could even slightly rise in 2022. Look for him to be a more consistent PPR flex in 2022.