Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 15

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan I am constantly looking for different ways to inspire lineup construction. There is so much noise throughout the week about who are cash locks, who are fades, the chalk, etc. What I am saying is that it can get really noisy out there in the space of daily fantasy that, by the time I begin looking at salaries on Tuesday until kickoff on Sunday, so much changes. The amount of information and data available is extensive and I am lucky to “know” many of the people who pump out some of the best content available. I have a hard time building a lineup without reading all of the daily content on our site, which you can find here: http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/. The internet, however, is a big world and I pride myself on reading as many articles as I can throughout the week, which no doubt influences my decisions in some shape or form.

The fine line between influence and inspiration may or may not be blurred, and admittedly I am unsure of the difference between the two. I do know that each week, as I try to get away from all of the research I have done in a sense, I look for something to influence or inspire me for a handful of lineups that are off of my own beaten path. This week, I am looking to Bob Harris’ to influence and/or inspire me. His Three and Out article (http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy-football-columns/html/dfs-three-and-out-2016-week-15.cfm) is in my weekly rotation of research and this week I am going to use his locks, along with our FanDuel optimizer, to see what results I get.

You can find the full spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_oQm0mbQrHaaN6p0I_qFMsCK8aPwIMCYliIcyBtiotM/edit?usp=sharing

Based off of the results that generated, here are three players I am in on and one I am out on, in addition to Bob’s picks.

IN:


Antonio Brown, $8,500 – 75%
I am perfectly ok with having Brown in 75% of my 20 lineups. In nine career games against the Cincinnati Bengals, Brown averages 17.2 points. Having not cracked 100 yards in his past four games, I suspect he will not be the highest owned wide receiver this weekend so I am comfortable loading up on him in the hopes that others may not be. It is hard to go wrong when rostering Brown but he is obviously someone you have to pay up for not just this week, but each week. He is the second-highest priced receiver this weekend, second only to Odell Beckham who would cost you $100 more. In lineups where I do not have Beckham I may swap him in Brown’s spot, which could cut down my Brown exposure a bit all while upping my Beckham exposure. Not bad either way, if you ask me.

T.Y. Hilton, $7,300 – 45%
The Indianapolis Colts have a really tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Hilton, on the other hand, has a matchup from the slot against Captain Munnerlyn that could be worth taking a shot on. Having him on less than half of my teams feels like it could pay off if he were to rack up a few receptions and break one off for a long touchdown, something he is pretty good at. He is Andrew Luck’s primary target and could be relied on heavily this weekend. I like him at the 45% range of my 20 lineups and do not see myself altering that number much.

Dez Bryant, $7,500 – 50%
Oh she is such a homer, they’ll say. My real life team is 11-2 which makes my heart warm, but this is fantasy football and my heart has nothing to do with it. Mike Evans, arguably this week’s chalk receiver, will be on the other side of the field from Bryant and if you click on the link I provided to my spreadsheet you will see I have 30% exposure to him, a number I intend on increasing a bit. Bryant, however, at 50% is something I am 100% buying into. Multiple outlets that report projected ownership have Bryant right around the 5% mark which almost puts him into that contrarian category. He is coming off of an abysmal game and a bounce-back performance at home is exactly what I am looking for. What is most encouraging is that, for the first time since Week 1, Bryant was on the field for over 90% of the teams’ snaps last week. In the two week’s prior, he did not crack 80%. While I am on the subject of percentages, I will throw out there that over the past three weeks he has seen 29% of the teams’ targets. Prior to last week’s flop, Bryant had recorded at least four receptions and 72 yards in four straight games. He also had four touchdowns over that same time span. Simply put, he had a four-week stretch of fantasy goodness. This week can roster Bryant at $7,500 and bank on his return to consistency or pay more than him for A.J. Green, your choice.

OUT


Travis Kelce, $6,900 – 100%
Don’t get me wrong, I love Travis Gronkelce this week and any week really. It is that 100% ownership I am concerned about and I fully anticipate dropping that way down, possibly in half. I am uncomfortable with 100% exposure to any tight end and will be looking to pepper in some Zach Ertz ($5,900 vs Baltimore), Ladarius Green ($5,600 @ Cincinnati), Antonio Gates ($5,300 vs. Oakland), and Jermaine Gresham ($4,500 vs. New Orleans). In fact, Gresham looks like he may be might highest-owned tight end this weekend. FanDuel is still asleep on his pricing, and players such as Vance McDonald (IR) and Levine Toilolo (really?) will cost you more than Gresham this week. He has seen 23 targets over his past three while being on the field for an average of 89% of the Cardinals’ snaps. Kelce will be in many of my lineups, maybe even half, but Gresham will be factored in as well.

This will be the second time this season I am piggy-backing off of Bob Harris’ article and, as someone who still considers herself more of a Harris fan than a Harris co-worker, I relish the opportunity to do so. Using Bob’s picks in our optimizer and analyzing the results, I will be able to throw 20 lineups into contention tomorrow that I feel will have a good shot at winning some money. But who am I kidding, I am millionaire-bound every weekend in my eyes, and this weekend is no different. Good luck!