DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2020 Week 15
Jalen Hurts, PHI
Hurts should be priced like Lamar Jackson this week. In his first career start, Hurts ran 18 times for 105 yards. That was the fifth-most rush attempts for a quarterback since 2000. His rushing yardage total is the 16th-most since 2000. He ran for over 1,200 yards in his final collegiate season so this shouldn't come as a surprise. The price bump he got on both sites should keep his ownership in check but he is facing a Cardinals defense that is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year.
Lamar Jackson, BAL
Because Jackson played on the Monday Night Football game this week, his price didn't come up after a two-score, 100-yard performance on the ground alone. Surprisingly, his ownership isn't clocking in particularly highly owned. The Ravens have the second-highest team total of the main slate and face a defense that has allowed eight yards per pass attempt, 32nd in the league.
Alvin Kamara, NO
Kamara was wholly faded last week because Tayom Hill supposedly doesn't throw to running backs. Last week, Kamara saw 10 targets in a losing effort to the Eagles. As an underdog to the Chiefs this week, Kamara should be in a spot to log double-digit targets once again, regardless of who is under center for the Saints.
CEH hasn't done much with his volume this year and the presence of Le'Veon bell destroyed his fantasy value for a few weeks. His role has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks outside of a single week that saw him sit on the sidelined with an illness. He is averaging 13.7 carries and three targets per game over his past three contests. As the primary ball-carrier on an offense led by Patrick Mahomes, it's hard to not view CEH was one of the best tournament running backs of the week.
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI
If we're targeting the ARI/PHI game with Hurts, there's only one option to considering when looking for a run-back. With a 29% target share and a 36% target share, Hopkins' WOPR (a weighted measure of the two mark share metrics) is fourth-highest in the NFL at .67.
Antonio Brown, TB
Since joining the Bucs in Week 9, Brown is second on the team with 34 targets, tied with Chris Godwin. However, because his aDOT of 6.3 is slightly higher than Godwin's, he has a marginally better air yards share. Mostar importantly, he is the cheapest of the three Tampa Bay receivers. The Bucs have a 28.25 implied team total and face a horrid Atlanta secondary this week.
Mark Andrews, BAL
If we're playing Jackson at quarterback, we're likely betting on him throwing at least one touchdown, if not two. Andrews leads the Ravens in red zone targets despite missing a game while on the reserve/COVID-19 list. He is also only $5,500 and plays at the worst position in DFS, tight end.
Dallas Goedert, PHI
Since Week 10, Goedert has dominated the receiving work for Philly. He has a 21% target share and a 24% air yards share. Both marks lead all Eagles pass-catcher. Much like Andrews, even though Goedert's quarterback is one of the most mobile passers, a winning day from Hurts still requires at least one touchdown throw. Based on Goedert's volume, he's the best bet of all Eagles.
The Cowboys get to face Nick Mullens this week. Mullens has a 3.5% interception rate and a 5.7% sack rate in his career. Despite the notion that Dallas has a terrible defense, they are allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game this year. They're cheap on both sites and won't be particularly popular.