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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 5
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Through four weeks, Lamar Jackson has show an incredibly high floor. He has gone over 20 fantasy points each week so far. His season-low in passing yards is 247. Since Week 1, he's also averaged 11 attempts per game. Getting into the positive is important even in tournaments.
However, Jackson still has a ceiling that we have yet to see. He has hit 90 yards on the ground four times in his career and DraftKings awards a three-point bonus for reaching triple-digits. On top of that, he reached the 300-yard passing bonus for the first time in his career this season. He'll win someone all of the money the day he hits both. He also has a great stacking option that we'll get to later.
The bonuses aren't a thing on Fanduel but that site lets you put more studs into your lineup. Paying up at quarterback is much more viable which easily offsets that lost bonus upside.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Volume is important in both cash and tournaments. The only difference is that, in tournaments, finding sneaky volume is the skeleton key to success. Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette were among the league's leaders in running back volume heading into Week 4 but hadn't put up fantasy points that we would expect to follow that volume. Then they both smashed.
David Montgomery will be the next player to course-correct in line with their volume. Montgomery is 16th in touches despite only seeing seven in Week 1. Since then he has averaged 19.7 touches per game. That mark would be 12th in the league through the start of the season.
He gets Oakland as a five-point favorite this week. The Bears should have no problem leaning on Montgomery with a comfortable lead.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook is second in the NFL with 410 rushing yards and is top-10 in attempts. He's also added 4.5 targets per game to the work on the ground. Cooks is coming off of his worst game this year. He still found the end zone but he only managed 70 yards from scrimmage. Christian McCaffrey, his biggest competition at the top of the running back price range, exploded last week, which should keep Cook's ownership in check.
Cook faces the Giants this week as a 5.5-point favorite and the Vikings have been more than willing to rely on Cook and fade their passing game. They have passed on 47.4% of their plays, 31st in the NFL. He may get more carries than any other back in Week 5. With his game-breaking speed, Cook is liable to go for multiple long runs on that kind of volume.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans
Will Fuller has been getting targeted, downfield, consistently. Now the Texans are likely to be without Kenny Stills, the only other competition on the team for deep balls. Fuller has the highest average depth of target on the team (17.3) and Stills is second (13.3).
Fuller is 12th in air yards at 399 but 65th in fantasy points. That type of under-production is unsustainable, especially with a talented quarterback delivering the ball in Deshaun Watson.
No game sets up better for Fuller to get right than his matchup with the Falcons. Atlanta just got shredded by Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. Now Fuller and the Texans face them in a game with a 49-point total, highest on the main slate.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown saw Fuller's 399 air yards and raised him by an additional 108. His 507 air yards are third in the NFL. However, his 60.4 fantasy points are 22nd. On top of that, half of his fantasy points came in Week 1 when he posted a 4-147-2 stat line. Since then he has 157 receiving yards.
Now Brown and the Ravens are traveling to Pittsburgh with a game total that has quickly risen from 42.5 points to 44 points. The line has also moved a half-point in favor of Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh can keep it a close game with Baltimore it will force the Ravens to keep their foot on the gas and pass more often. That is the exact scenario that Brown needs to return to his Week 1 glory days.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons drafted Austin Hooper in 2016 and he has been a low-ceiling player who has failed to breakout since then. This has led people to doubt that his first four weeks this season are indicative of a breakout. Hooper is second in fantasy points for tight ends but won't be owned as such in tournaments.
He has 307 receiving yards and two scores this season. Those marks are nearly or already half-way toward his career-highs. He is currently fourth in targets (33) for tight ends on one of the league's best passing offenses.
In a game that is rife with stacking opportunities, running Fuller back with Hooper is a great option.
The Bengals play the Cardinals at home this week as 3.5-point favorites. If the line proves to be correct, it will be Cincy's first win of the season.
The Cardinals have run the eighth-most plays on offense and those plays are often resulting in sacks. Their line is horrid and Kyler Murray has shown a tendency to run into defender's arms. He has taken a league-high 20 sacks, five per game this season. The Bengals are a cheap option at defense with as much upside as any on the main slate.