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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 16
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins
The showdown between Miami and Cincinnati features a 46.5-point total which is tied for fourth-highest on the slate. However, it's tied with two other games and features the least desirable offenses by a considerable margin. That makes it the perfect game to stack.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a cheap option with a history of massive spike weeks to his name. He faces a defense that has allowed their opponents to average 7.8 yards per attempt (29th) and has a breakout star at wide receiver in DeVante Parker. Fire up Fitzmagic again this week in tournaments.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are expected to be competitive in this game, which is the game-script a player like Joe Mixon would traditionally thrive in, but recently even that hasn't mattered to him or Zac Taylor. Cincinnati has lost their past two games and Mixon has 54 touches in the pair of defeats. Most notably, while getting boat raced by the Ravens, Mixon carried the ball 30 times.
Miami's defense is putrid and this game is projected by Vegas to feature loads of points. Continue the stack with Cincy's workhorse back.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been a dominant football team since their bye week. They are 4-2 with marquee wins in San Francisco and New Orleans. Now they face Jacksonville, whose only contentious game in the second half of the season was their win over a lost Raiders team. Before that, they had lost five straight games by three scores.
Now Atlanta gets them at home, as 7-point favorites, with a 27 implied team total.
Capturing a large amount of those points is very affordable with Devonta Freeman.
Chris Conley, Jacksonville
Just as the game-script of Jacksonville/Atlanta favors the Falcons' ground attack, it's also perfect for the Jags' passing game. With D.J. Chark out last week, Chris Conley stepped into his role with eight targets that he converted to a 4-49-2 stat line.
He led the team in targets and air yards (90). Pro Football Focus has Atlanta's starting outside corners (Isaiah Oliver and Blidi Wreh-Wilson) ranked outside of the top-65 at their position. Conley should feast on them as Jacksonville battles from behind.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
If you're playing Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker has to be the number one priority at receiver. Parker has gone over 20 points in three of his past five games and he's hit at least double-digit points in all but three games this year. Two of those games came in Weeks 1-3. He's been on fire since then.
Since Week 7, Parker is eighth in targets (74) and 12th in air yards (843). This includes the Week 14 game where he exited after 18 snaps while dealing with a concussion.
Parker locks up so much of Fitzpatrick's volume that you can't run one without the other.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Everyone is going to be playing Deandre Washington and you should be too. He's nearly minimum price and he's going to see the bulk of Oakland's carries plus a healthy amount of targets with Josh Jacobs out. He's too good of a play to move away from so instead, we can look to correlate him with a Charger.
Hunter Henry is that guy because neither Keenan Allen nor Mike Williams has had a ceiling worth chasing. The two of them combined have one game of 25 DraftKings points this season and that came from Allen in Week 3. Henry has just as many games of 25 points while missing time and playing at a low-ceiling position.
Washington is the cheapest defense that plays at home as a favorite this week. Plus, they get a phenomenal matchup versus the Giants, who appear to be getting Daniel Jones back this week.
Despite missing two games and not starting in two more, Jones has put up gaudy turnover and sack numbers in his rookie campaign:
- 11 interceptions - T-9th
- 33 sacks - 11th
- 15 fumbles - 1st
The upside is too high to get off Washington even if they end up as a popular defense.