DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 11
Kyle Allen, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers face Atlanta this week in a game with a total of 49.5 points and they have an implied team total of 27.5 points. Both Vegas numbers are top-five on the main slate. That makes this one of the marquee spots of the week but many of the Panthers players are criminally underpriced.
Kyle Allen is $5,300 on DraftKings (the best site to play him on) an $7,200 on Fanduel (not as good of a value but still worth being overweight on in tournaments). From his first four games to his second four games, the Panthers have had Allen throw six more attempts per game. This week, he faces a defense that has allowed its opponents to throw for 7.9 yards per attempt.
Everything about this game sets up well for Allen. Get on him while he's cheap.
Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons
Brian Hill is the first of two chalky options we'll look at in tournaments. Hill is this week's free square and that extends to large-field contest as well.
In the absence of Ito Smith and Devonta Freeman for most of last week, Hill carried the ball 20 times and saw two targets. Fellow Atlanta backup Kenjon Barner got a single carry and no targets.
Atlanta clearly views Hill as their lead-back by a wide margin. He's priced as a backup this week and that value is too good to fade in any format.
Dalvin Cook, Denver Broncos
Pivoting off Christian McCaffrey is difficult to do this week because of all of the value, but you likely have to in order to build a unique lineup. Paying a bit less for a different workhorse is one way to do so.
Dalvin Cook is second in the NFL at 24.3 touches per game and 141.5 scrimmage yards per game. Both numbers trail only McCaffrey.
This week he faces the Denver Broncos as a double-digit favorite. That game-script, plus the absence of Adam Thielen (who is expected to return after the Vikings' Week 12 bye) could have Minnesota lean heavily on their ground attack and Cook. If that's the case, Cook could easily out-touch and out-score CMC.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
The best stacking option with Kyle Allen is undoubtedly D.J. Moore. Moore is averaging 10 targets per over his past four outings and the Panthers have been expanding his role to include a number of deep routes per game. Over that stretch, Moore's average depth of target has increased by 1.5 yards and his overall share of Carolina's air yards has gone up 10%.
The young wideout also has significant touchdown regression coming his way. He has been targeted 79 times this season and scored once. Only Tyler Boyd has more targets with a lone touchdown.
Moore has a better role and should be scoring more than he hs. The confluence of factors plus the great game makes him a solid tournament option.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel is the second uber-popular play of the week, but there's really no way to get off of Samuel without taking a major hit. Instead, just get weird and run Moore-Allen stacks without McCaffrey.
Samuel was targeted 11 times on Monday night in a game that started without George Kittle and ended without Emmanuel Sanders. It was clear that Samuel was the next man up and he was ready to take over. He posted an 8-112 receiving line.
George Kittle has already been ruled out and Emmanuel Sanders does not look likely to play. When you can get a team's No. 1 receiver for as low as you can get Samuels, you have to do it.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Noah Fant put his skill set on full display two weeks ago when he turned four targets into 115 receiving yards and touchdown including a long catch and run. Throughout the season, Fant has also been a tight end that gets unusually deep targets. Fant has a 9.1 average depth of target, 5th among all tight ends with at least 30 targets.
Between his long-ball targets and YAC ability, Fant has explosive upside on every play. The Broncos are major underdogs this week which should see them passing often as they play catch-up. That means more targets and more chances at big plays for Fant. The Fant play also correlates well with Cook, who will be heavily involved in the Vikings aking a large lead.
New Orleans Saints
There are a number of great games to stack this week. If your lineup doesn't involve stacking the Saints/Bucs game, the best way to approach that game is to play the Saints defense.
Jameis Winston and the Bucs trail only the Giants with 21 turnovers on the season. Winston has also taken 34 sacks, more than any other passer in the league.
If the Saints defense can take advantage of Wintson's numerous mistakes, the Bucs top-end players could fail and this game will hit the under. In that scenario, the Saints are one of the highest-leverage defenses of the slate.