DFS Pivot Plays week 8 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal Week 8: Pivot Plays
By: Armando Marsal

Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday main slate.

Quarterback


Chalk

Andy Dalton $5,700 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Dalton is generating a lot of buzz this week and will likely be the most popular or one of the more popular quarterbacks of the slate. He faces off against the Colts who are giving up 310.9 passing yards per game, while yielding 10 touchdowns. In addition, they have allowed +4.5 points above expectations to opposing signal callers. Aside from the good matchup, Dalton comes in at a very cheap price. He is off to a poor start this season, but did display his upside against the Browns in Week 4 and this matchup is comparable. He makes a lot of sense in cash, but in tournaments I would not mind going in a different direction.

Pivot

Philip Rivers $6,300 at New England Patriots
If you’ve looked at my rankings, read some of my work, or have talked to me this week, you probably were expecting this to be my pivot play. Rivers is in a great spot against the Patriots defense who are yielding over 300 passing yards per game to quarterbacks and aside from Matt Ryan last game, all quarterbacks that have faced them have topped 300 yards against the Patriots this season. New England has also surrendered 15 passing touchdowns (tied for most in the league) and are allowing +7.4 points above expectations to quarterbacks this season. Rivers has topped 20 fantasy points in all non-division games this year and certainly possesses the upside for a 300+ passing yard and multiple touchdowns performance. With some of the attention on quarterbacks such as Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Kirk Cousins, Rivers could slip through the cracks and come in at a very low ownership.

Running Backs


Chalk

Mark Ingram $7,400 vs. Chicago Bears
Ingram continues to perform at a high level, so ownership will continue to be high on him. He has 56 touches combined in his last two contests, eclipsing 100 rushing yards in each of those games and scoring three touchdowns. The Bears are yielding 90.3 rushing yards per game and have allowed five rushing touchdowns. The Saints are one of the bigger favorites of the week at -10 points, so if this game plays out like Vegas expects it to, Ingram should eat once again and see upwards of 20 touches for the third straight week.

Pivot

Carlos Hyde $6,000 at Philadelphia Eagles
The 49ers are heading to Philly to take on the Eagles and they are a 12.5 point dog in this one. Typically this would be a situation I would avoid a running back in, but game script has not affected Hyde that much this season due to his ability of being both an efficient runner and pass catcher. He is averaging a healthy 4.3 yards per carry and 5.3 targets per game. The Eagles have been stingy against the run this season, having yet allowed a running back to eclipse 81 rushing yards. However, they have surrendered 44 receptions for 324 yards and three receiving touchdowns to opposing backs. This is certainly a high-risk play because there is a lot of downside, but Hyde does possess that 20+ fantasy point upside that can win you a tournament and has only scored single-digit fantasy points once this season.

Wide Receivers


Chalk

A.J. Green $8,600 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Usually when a player underperforms one week, his ownership the following week could take a hit due to recency bias, but that is not the case with Green this week. In fact, considering all the buzz going on about him in the industry, I expect him to be very chalky. He faces off against the Colts who have been generous to receivers this season, allowing 202.1 receiving yards and over 35 fantasy points per game, as well as a 59 percent catch rate. He is projected to see a lot of Rashaan Melvin, who Green has a 40 percent advantage rating against, per PFF. This is a great bounce back spot for him and a big game is possible, which is why I would not mind eating some chalk here, but there is a slight chance I will be underweight on him compared to the field.

Pivot

Julio Jones $8,400 at New York Jets
With all the attention on A.J. Green this week, I could see Jones going slightly overlooked and that could be a mistake. The Jets have allowed eight receiving touchdowns this season and are yielding 135.6 receiving yards per game, with a 56 percent catch rate. Jones is expected to face off against Morris Claiborne, who he has a 39 percent advantage rating against, per PFF. Jones is averaging 8.3 targets per game, accounting for 24 percent of the Falcons target share and also 17.9 percent of the red zone targets. He offers tremendous upside and one of the higher ceilings of any receiver. I like the idea of spending less for Jones and getting him at roughly a 10 percent lower ownership.

Tight Ends


Chalk

Jordan Reed $4,700 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Reed finally had a Reed type of game last week, catching 8-of-10 targets for 64 yard and two touchdowns. His price remains way too low considering his ability and the caliber of player that he is, so I expect him to be the highest owned tight end this week. The matchup is not all that great as the Cowboys have done a decent job limiting the damage by tight ends. However, the last time that Reed faced Dallas, he caught 10 passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Last week’s matchup was also difficult for Reed, but he was able to excel and is the type of player that can overcome a difficult matchup such as the one this week.

Pivot

Tyler Kroft $3,000 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Kroft continues to have a solid role on this offense, averaging 5.3 targets per game and scoring three touchdowns in his last three games. He has stepped in and been efficient in Tyler Eifert’s absence, by catching at least three passes in every game since Week 3 and owning an impressive 85 percent catch rate during that stretch. He has the highest advantage rating of any tight end this week at 26 percent and has plenty of upside at a very low price. Although he does not offer the same type of ceiling that Reed does, Kroft has the ability to score 20+ fantasy points as we have already seen this season.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal