DFS Pivot Plays week 10 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal
Week 10: Pivot Plays
By: Armando Marsal

Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday main slate.



Matthew Stafford $6,800 vs. Cleveland Browns

Stafford draws a nice matchup at home against the Browns this week. Quarterbacks are averaging 241.9 passing yards per game against Cleveland and have thrown 16 touchdowns. The Browns are also giving up over 18 fantasy points per game and a healthy 69 percent completion percentage to opposing signal callers. Stafford has topped 20 fantasy points and 300 passing yards in each of his last three games. He averages 37.8 passing attempts per game and has attempted fewer than 30 passes just once this season. He has played much better at home, averaging a little over two more fantasy points per game and has thrown just one of his four picks. This is a matchup that he should exploit, however, there is one concern for me and that is the potential blowout as the Lions are 11-point favorites. Other than that, this is a smash spot for Stafford.


Dak Prescott $7,300 at Atlanta Falcons

Paying up to be contrarian can pay off at times, and this is one of those instances where it makes sense. There are a lot of options to choose from in that mid $6k range, which is why I think Prescott will be lower owned than he should be. Since Week 3, Prescott has scored three or more total touchdowns and scored 20+ fantasy points in every game but one. With Ezekiel Elliott being out due to a suspension, more of this offense will likely run through Prescott, increasing both his floor and upside. He faces off against the Falcons who are a middle of the road defense, giving up 1,796 passing yards and 11 touchdowns this season. This contest is projected to be one of the highest scoring games this week, with just a three-point spread and the Cowboys could be playing catchup, so Prescott, who is already averaging 32.4 passing attempts per game, could be asked to sling it. He can also run out of the backfield, giving up that extra arsenal.

Running Backs


Bilal Powell $4,000 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With the Matt Forte news, Powell has gained some traction in the industry and could end up being one of the higher owned backs. He faces off against the Bucs who are giving up 95.8 rushing yards and over 25 fantasy points per game, while yielding seven rushing touchdowns. In addition, they have surrendered 49 receptions for 410 yards and two touchdowns. Although it is a small sample size, Powell is averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry this season. Throughout his career, he has averaged no worse than 4.0 yards per carry in a single season aside from 2011 where he played in two games and received 13 rush attempts. Powell has also displayed his pass catching ability, coming down with 47 catches in 11 games in 2015 and 58 catches in 16 games in 2016. At this price, he makes a lot of sense and with no Forte, Powell should receive the bulk of the carries.


Orleans Darkwa $4,500 at San Francisco 49ers

Darkwa has emerged as the Giants’ lead back and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry in 67 attempts this season. He draws the best matchup a running back can ask for against the 49ers who are allowing 119 rushing yards and over 30 fantasy points per game to running backs, while giving up 4.1 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns. In addition, they have surrendered 54 receptions for 572 yards and four receiving touchdowns to the position. There is risk in Darkwa as the touches are not guaranteed, but he is heading in the right direction as of late with at least 18 touches in two of his last three games. The Giants are on the road, but are 3.5 point favorites, so this game script could potentially favor Darkwa. If he gets 18+ touches in this one, he has a very good chance to outscore Powell at a fraction of the ownership.

Wide Receivers


Antonio Brown $9,500 at Indianapolis Colts

Brown gets a nice matchup against the Colts who have been generous to wide receivers this season, giving up over 35 fantasy points per game, surrendering 106 receptions for 1,661 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns. The Colts will be without Vontae Davis, so it is likely that Brown sees coverage from Pierre Desir as he lines up 60 percent of the time on the right side and if that is the case, Desir has a 43.7 grade on Pro Football Focus. Brown is a model of consistency and has been that for several years now. He leads the league in targets with 94, averaging 11.8 targets per game and accounting for 33 percent of the Steelers target share, as well as 30.3 percent of the red zone targets. Brown will likely be the highest owned receiver this week, if not one of the highest owned and rightfully so. I will have exposure to him and eat the chalk here, because this is just too good of a spot for him and one he should absolutely dominate in.


Julio Jones $8,000 vs. Dallas Cowboys

I chose Jones as my pivot last week and it panned out. He scored 20.8 fantasy points, catching 6-of-12 passes for 118 yards and was just 12.5 percent owned on average in tournaments. He will likely be a tad higher owned this week, but still much lower owned than Antonio Brown and also $1,500 cheaper. While the volume has not been consistent for Jones this season on a week-to-week basis, he has received at least 12 targets in two of his last three games and has topped 20 fantasy points twice during that stretch. He draws a solid matchup against the Cowboys who have given up 104 receptions for 1,165 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs, with a 63 percent catch rate and over 35 fantasy points per game. He is also set to see plenty of Jourdan Lewis, who Jones has a 38 percent advantage rating against. Jones offers close to the same upside as Brown, but is more volatile, but that is a risk I would be willing to take in tournament lineups that I do not play Brown in.

Tight Ends


Cameron Brate $4,100 vs. New York Jets

Brate is in line to receive more targets this week due to Mike Evans being suspended for this contest. As it is, Brate averages six targets per game this season and since Week 4, he is averaging nearly seven targets per game. He is coming off of a poor performance against the Saints, but does find himself in a good bounce back spot against the Jets who have allowed five touchdowns in their last five games to tight ends and at least 67 receiving yards in each of those games. Brate has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season and has displayed a nice ceiling. This is a matchup that favors him as he has a nine percent advantage rating against the Jets, the fourth highest of any tight end this week.


Kyle Rudolph $4,600 at Washington Redskins

Rudolph draws a very nice matchup against the Redskins who are giving up 5.9 receptions, 79.6 receiving yards, and over 16 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, while yielding four touchdowns. The Vikings are coming off of their bye week, but prior to that Rudolph had received at least seven targets in four consecutive games, averaging eight targets per game during that stretch. He accounts for 32 percent of the red zone targets for Minnesota, giving him touchdown upside and also 17 percent of the team’s target share. He comes into this matchup playing well, scoring two touchdowns in his last four games and with a lot of attention going towards Cameron Brate, Rudolph could go completely overlooked this week, making him an interesting tournament play.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal